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Message
1
Posted on 9/16/19 at 11:22 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Yeah models have some pretty worrisome bullseyes for the Houston area Wednesday night into Thursday. Really hope they're wrong.
The where is the big question but there's growing support for somewhere near Houston getting 30" as this system just stalls out.
Posted on 9/16/19 at 11:37 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
This would be the first real "deep tropical" or MDR hurricane of the 2019 season
What was Dorian?
Posted on 9/17/19 at 3:07 am to Jim Rockford
I’m not for sure on this but I think the point being made is that it would be the first system to be a major storm that Far East this year. Dorian really didn’t come together til after moving west of the Dominican Republic/Haiti
Posted on 9/17/19 at 7:14 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/17/19 at 9:02 am to cajunangelle
quote:
think about Hurricanes and pressure headaches/migraines in people, they say could be due to barometric pressure?
I'm not an MD, so uh, it's interesting as about all I can muster.
WPC bringing the moderate threat for excessive rain the next three days for the Houston Metro. Still a question of where the heaviest stuff falls and isn't the widespread huge numbers of Harvey expected, but I'm sure there's a bit of dread for some of our Houston folks. I know how I felt looking at the river forecasts when Barry was approaching.
I'll take a look at the models in a little bit and talk about the rainfall potential.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 9:36 am to Duke
Latest NAM model has a 40" total in SETX.
Pivotal Weather
Last nights Euro run for comparisons sake:
Pivotal Weather
Last nights Euro run for comparisons sake:
This post was edited on 9/17/19 at 9:41 am
Posted on 9/17/19 at 9:47 am to lsugolfredman
quote:
Latest NAM model has a 40" total in SETX.
That's always a concern when the CAMs (Convective Allowing Model) start spiking 40" totals. Well, the NAM only put out 35" in 60 hours but yeah that's more than enough. The NAM hammers the area around Galveston Bay, specifically south of Houston.
The 6z Euro puts 31" down, near the same bullseye south of Tyler. Still has a lot of 12"+ totals around the Houston metro but obviously better than 30+. The signal is someone in east Texas is going to get way too much rain but the finer details of where is still too uncertain to pin down.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 9:48 am to Duke
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... 
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019
Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the
Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the
satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable
upper-level environment. The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low
shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.
Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019
Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the
Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the
satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable
upper-level environment. The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low
shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.
Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 9/17/19 at 9:58 am to lsuman25
Looking at the 500 mb heights, that will find a kick out to sea. Humberto leaves the door open, and there should be a trough coming off the east coast to keep the turn north wide open. Modeling could be off, but it's hard to see the ridging building in enough to allow it to tuck under. Getting close to October now, the SW Atlantic ridge isn't often able to build in like it does in July, August, and early September.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 10:09 am to Duke
RDS needs to come start the thread for TD #10.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 10:53 am to lsugolfredman
Its going to be an interesting few days in the Houston area.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 11:05 am to rds dc
So how much actual damage to the mainland did Dorian end up doing? Scraped the coast and then went back out into the Atlantic?
Posted on 9/17/19 at 11:08 am to rds dc
quote:
98L in the Gulf at 50%
It was around 10% yesterday if I wasn’t mistaken.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 11:09 am to rds dc
quote:
98L in the Gulf at 50%
I'll take some rain in Central Texas...
Posted on 9/17/19 at 11:10 am to bigberg2000
quote:
Its going to be an interesting few days in the Houston area.
Crazy that you have one county forecast for 45 inches of rain, and about 4 or 5 counties east and west there is a forecast of essentially 0 inches of rain.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 11:34 am to RummelTiger
quote:
I'll take some rain in Central Texas...
Not unless you live in Tyler but maybe the 12z Euro changes things up.
Posted on 9/17/19 at 11:59 am to rds dc
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
Posted on 9/17/19 at 12:19 pm to lsuman25
Damn that was quick. RI to a hurricane about to happen? Harvey part 2....
I kid
I kid
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