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re: Today's Italy update; 743 deaths in the past 24hrs.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 1:48 pm to AncientTiger
Posted on 3/24/20 at 1:48 pm to AncientTiger
How many days are we behind Italy now?
1
Posted on 3/24/20 at 1:49 pm to AncientTiger
quote:
feel free to not open my daily update.
Is it really a daily update when you only post it when the news is bad
Posted on 3/24/20 at 1:49 pm to frankthetank
The notion is that by implementing a lockdown far in advance of Italy's lockdown, Louisiana is hoping to keep the number of deaths per day in the teens as it is right now.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 1:51 pm to Unknown_Poster
No doubt. And I imagine it will stay in the teens. Anticipated hospitalization cases are lower than estimated across the board.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 1:59 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
so everyone posting Louisiana vs Italy numbers are saying we will have 600-800 deaths a day within next week or so?
My hopes is that the measures we took will bring that number way down. Only time will tell.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:03 pm to frankthetank
quote:
The compared equivalent for Italy’s ~800 deaths/day in Louisiana would be ~60, based strictly on Italy’s much larger population.
Yeah, the areas affected in Italy -- Lombardia, Piedimonte, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto -- have roughly 28 million people, similar in population/desity to New York + New Jersey. (Which is kind of scary looking at numbers from those states)
But yes, it's a lot different than Louisiana in general.
However, people using Italy's total population aren't realizing how confined the disaster is to those 4 northern regions. The rest of Italy is not worse than many other places in Europe and some of those areas are actually sending medical staff and supplies to the north.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:05 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Yesterday we were matching Italy's curve for total cases and everyone was shouting it from the rooftops. Today we are far behind and those trends are suddenly missing.
Louisiana has more deaths since day 1 of case 1 than Italy (LA 46 Italy 41) but Italy had more total cases by about 300 at this point (Italy 1701 LA 1388).
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:06 pm to AncientTiger
cool. pretty soon they'll all be dead and you can shut up about it.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:09 pm to fightin tigers
Butthole tape OFF [ON]
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:14 pm to FlappingPierre
Wonder what southern Italy is doing to prevent the spread of the corona virus and stay alive compared to northern Italy where most of the deaths seem to come from.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:20 pm to AncientTiger
The way this virus is ravaging Italy is downright scary. A cure/vaccine needs to come soon otherwise I dont see how this rate just all of a sudden slow down on its on.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:22 pm to PhilemonThomas
quote:
They’re padding their numbers
Your mom is padding her bra, as I recently found out firsthand.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:25 pm to QJenk
You can’t really judge the effect of the lockdown until this weekend. The average time from getting the disease to death is 18 days. Italy put Milan into lockdown on March 9. 18 days from March 9 is this weekend.
Let’s look at the numbers on Monday and see what they are
Let’s look at the numbers on Monday and see what they are
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:28 pm to tigerfan4444
quote:
Wonder what southern Italy is doing to prevent the spread of the corona virus and stay alive compared to northern Italy where most of the deaths seem to come from.
Northern Italy is a wealthy area where the bulk of tourism exists. I traveled to Venice and Florence October 2019. Those 2 cities were so packed it felt like I was walking around Disney World.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:32 pm to AncientTiger
quote:
Wonder what southern Italy is doing to prevent the spread of the corona virus and stay alive compared to northern Italy where most of the deaths seem to come from.
Northern Italy is a wealthy area where the bulk of tourism exists. I traveled to Venice and Florence October 2019. Those 2 cities were so packed it felt like I was walking around Disney World.
And Northern Italy is where all the Chinese are. I wonder how many of these "Italian" deaths are actually imported Chinese labor.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:37 pm to tigerfan4444
quote:
Wonder what southern Italy is doing to prevent the spread of the corona virus and stay alive compared to northern Italy where most of the deaths seem to come from.
It's a good question.
I think the death rate is easier to understand since it's mainly due to the shortage of ICU/respirators compared to sheer number people needing them all at the same time, tragic as that fact is.
The main theory as to why the virus didn't spread to the south in similar numbers is simply that the lock down type measures employed in various stages 2-3 weeks ago had the desired affect of limiting the regions heavily affected.
A couple of things to note though is that there's as almost as much movement between those northern Italian states and France, Switzerland, Germany etc etc as there is to the south of Italy.
Also, theories that this just spread due to the Italian multi-generational homes, basic health and health care etc efface the fact that the wealthy north which is being devastated is far better in all those areas than the south.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:40 pm to AncientTiger
One article earlier this week suggested Italy is the most “generous” when tracking deaths by COVID-19.
In other words if a patient is already in their final days of pancreatic cancer and then COVID kills them, they count it as a COVID death.
In other words if a patient is already in their final days of pancreatic cancer and then COVID kills them, they count it as a COVID death.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 2:57 pm to SabiDojo
May be an anomaly. Let's see tomorrow's data, before judging. As with most everything in life, there are good days, and bad days. Watch trends, not spikes.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 3:01 pm to wm72
quote:
A couple of things to note though is that there's as almost as much movement between those northern Italian states and France, Switzerland, Germany etc etc as there is to the south of Italy.
Also, theories that this just spread due to the Italian multi-generational homes, basic health and health care etc efface the fact that the wealthy north which is being devastated is far better in all those areas than the south.
The south is also much more rural and more spread out as well (sans Naples and that area). Just by lifestyle, your basic reproduction number will probably be lower in the south than north.
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