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re: SW LA getting rocked by severe storms this morning.

Posted on 5/18/21 at 12:53 pm to
Posted by When in Rome
Telegraph Road
Member since Jan 2011
36223 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 12:53 pm to
Posted by cfish140
BR
Member since Aug 2007
9141 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 12:54 pm to
Damn they found a body in one of the cars that went into the water under the bluebonnet overpass. Several cars submerged and piled up right there

I thought it was supposed to be bad today? It’s sunny skies In br right now
Posted by michael corleone
baton rouge
Member since Jun 2005
6544 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 1:02 pm to
Is this a tropical system ? Radar shows what appears to be a closed low NNE of Folsom.
Posted by man in the stadium
Member since Aug 2006
1454 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

This has been my point forever. There is little to no recorded weather data for North America and South America prior to 1800. At best we have 200 years of data, with 150 or so at most being “reliable”. As a result , anytime you hear “1000 year event “ or “500 year event ”, it should be taken with a grain of salt. This includes temperatures. We really have no clue from a statistical standpoint what sort of weather events occurred prior to 1800, let alone their severity. Everything is extrapolated from 150 years worth of data. That’s like basing a QB or RB’s career average upon Week 1 performance data. It’s illogical and irresponsible to advise the public that anything is a 500/1000 year event. Better off comparing it to a known record : built to Katrina flood height;built to 1983 or 2016 flood height, etc.


There is a good amount of Army Corps research on this and it results in the need for 300-400 years of observational history before 1%/100-yr annual recurrence interval estimates converge (See work by Beth Faber, USACE-HEC if you want to go down some nerd rabbit holes).
Posted by Mr Breeze
The Lunatic Fringe
Member since Dec 2010
6805 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

don't be suprised if the ridge thats moving in Friday stays a while and we have a dry June


Promise?
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

don't be suprised if the ridge thats moving in Friday stays a while and we have a dry June


Historically, wet springs lead to dry summers with the death ridge taking hold. It doesn't mean that will happen, but that certainly does provide some protection for the western gulf coast.

The trade off is a brutal arse hot summer.
Posted by Tiger in the Sticks
Back in the Boot
Member since Jan 2007
1836 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

better off to take Garp's advice and stayed


We’ve factored in “pre-disastered” a couple of times.
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
13077 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 2:13 pm to
Are we gonna get hit pretty hard again in BR? Know some people with water still almost all the way in the yard...
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 2:13 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75069 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 2:20 pm to
Timelapse video of the Lubbock storm last night from @TexasTech:
quote:

Stunning footage from last night’s storm southwest of Lubbock.

??: Dr. Christopher Weiss, Professor of Atmospheric Science at Texas Tech. LINK
Posted by LSU-MNCBABY
Knightsgate
Member since Jan 2004
25287 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

Are we gonna get hit pretty hard again in BR? Know some people with water still almost all the way in the yard...


Looks like a big yellow band coming, those kept popping up those random red cells last night when I was watching the radar
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75069 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 3:20 pm to
Tornado Warning with a TDS near New Hebron, MS.
Posted by A Smoke Break
Lafayette
Member since Nov 2018
2175 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

The trade off is a brutal arse hot summer.


Do you promise?

After what feels like a decade of nearly swimming on my commute, i'd give anything for a solid couple months of steady weather in the summer.
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
7136 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 3:23 pm to
The sun is out for the first time since Sunday in SWLA!
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 3:24 pm to
The rain isn't as heavy, even in the red areas as last night looking at the radar. Though there's plenty of afternoon to go and this looks like another day where someone is going to get a ton of rain but it's near impossible to say exactly where until they get 5" in 30 minutes.
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 3:25 pm
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Historically, wet springs lead to dry summers with the death ridge taking hold.

That's my band's new name.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

Do you promise?


I wish I could though again temps soaring above 100 for weeks at a time suck bad too. Though the trade off is protection from hurricanes.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150118 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 4:00 pm to
Is it gonna rumble in Houston tonight or nah
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42584 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 4:00 pm to
quote:


Timelapse video of the Lubbock storm last night from @TexasTech:
quote:
Stunning footage from last night’s storm southwest of Lubbock.

??: Dr. Christopher Weiss, Professor of Atmospheric Science at Texas Tech. LINK


Bigger storm than that last night in the Quad.
Posted by CrazyTigerFan
Member since Nov 2003
3621 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 4:01 pm to
Is it just me, or is the Bayou Fountain gage ( BBRL-1) rising again? Is this due to backwater flooding? I thought we weren't supposed to have that this time?

ETA: Nevermind about the other part, the campus lakes drain to Bayou Duplantier which drains to Dawson Creek, not Bayou Fountain.
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 4:27 pm
Posted by Domeskeller
Astrodome
Member since Jun 2020
9937 posts
Posted on 5/18/21 at 4:03 pm to
I hate extreme heat but I’d take that as a trade off if it meant the end of dodging storms for the summer. I’ve had it with the weather. We’ve had a month of weekly severe storm possibilities. And we’re not even technically in hurricane season, which for south Louisiana, usually doesn’t get cranked up until late August.
This post was edited on 5/18/21 at 4:05 pm
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