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Started By
Message
re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:16 am to Mudminnow
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:16 am to Mudminnow
quote:. I don’t put stock in anything this time of year. This thing could blow up into a cat 4 or fissile out to nothing. I don’t have time to deal with a storm so I am going to stock up get gas and be ready that will guarantee it won’t amount to anything
thanks for the update, looks like chance of formation has been bumped up to 80% now
2
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:20 am to paperwasp
This path would make for an incredible thread.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:29 am to The Boat
quote:
This path would make for an incredible thread.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:31 am to Riolobo
quote:
how much time do we have until we get a more clear projection of where this thing could end up? Few days?
Who knows
In the short term we will be watching to see if the system dives back into Mexico or stays out over water in the BOC.
The 12z ICON keeps it over water and the 12z GFS dives it back into Mexico and that has downstream impacts.
12z GFS moves system back into Mexico and keeps it very weak and by Friday a big upper level trough is dominating the Gulf.
12z ICON never moves the system back over Mexico and brings a stronger more organized system north. It's hard to say how much of the difference in the upper level pattern can be attributed to a strengthening system over the middle of the Gulf and how much is from the ICON backing the upper level trough out faster, maybe a combo of the two?
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:34 am to rds dc
RDS, is there a reason you keep referencing the ICON model? I thought the Euro and the Canadian were usually more accurate.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:35 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
fissile out
That would present a whole new set of problems...
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:37 am to tgrbaitn08
Not saying a word.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:38 am to paperwasp
Texas Wednesday through Saturday: Whew, going straight at Louisiana.
Texas on Saturday night/Sunday:
Texas on Saturday night/Sunday:
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:39 am to whodatdude
that would be what, a trop storm hitting texas?
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:42 am to dukke v
quote:
dukke v
quote:
Not saying a word.
Can’t tell if this is good or bad
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:43 am to Dire Wolf
But it’s what you get.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:44 am to whodatdude
That storm to Texas: The frick'd you just say?
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:45 am to OldSouth
quote:
is there a reason you keep referencing the ICON model? I thought the Euro and the Canadian were usually more accurate.
I wouldn't use it for anything serious but, in this case, it is useful in demonstrating some of the uncertainty associated with this system and the important role future land interaction could play in development. There is a cluster of Euro EPS members that do something similar to what the ICON is showing, so it can't be 100% dismissed.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:47 am to dukke v
quote:
Not saying a word.
You're finally growing up
Posted on 6/1/20 at 11:49 am to rds dc
quote:Gotcha, thanks.
I wouldn't use it for anything serious but, in this case, it is useful in demonstrating some of the uncertainty associated with this system and the important role future land interaction could play in development. There is a cluster of Euro EPS members that do something similar to what the ICON is showing, so it can't be 100% dismissed.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 12:01 pm to dukke v
quote:
Not saying a word.
Give us the scoop. 
Posted on 6/1/20 at 12:36 pm to rds dc
with the reduced air travel and the amount of weather data it collects, do you see any reduced reliability based on the lack of data? I know our local weather forecasts have been more off than normal with it.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 12:50 pm to Mr Sausage
quote:Commercial airliners collect weather data for the NWS? I didn't realize that but it makes sense.
with the reduced air travel and the amount of weather data it collects
Posted on 6/1/20 at 12:52 pm to Mr Sausage
quote:
with the reduced air travel and the amount of weather data it collects, do you see any reduced reliability based on the lack of data? I know our local weather forecasts have been more off than normal with it.
For real? I didn't know that. I have felt like our forecasts have been particularly bad but I thought I was just being dumb.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 1:40 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:girl texas to boy storm: my parents arent home
That storm to Texas: The frick'd you just say?
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