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Started By
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re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:20 pm to Hulkklogan
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:20 pm to Hulkklogan
quote:
I don't think I've ever seen a projection that so clearly demonstrates that they have no clue what's going to happen
And here we go. Like clockwork all during hurricane season that folks don't like that the forcasters can't tell us when and where a storm will hit 6 days out.
Also since this thread is gaining traction, I know the bat signal is up for that one guy that gets made every time there are weather threads. He will be along any minute to share some wisdom.
2
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:22 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I know the bat signal is up for that one guy that gets mad every time there are weather threads
Don't you mean just about everyone in literally every weather thread here?
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:23 pm to notiger1997
Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Forecast to become #Cristobal and perhaps meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days. Official forecast still has it in the central/southern Gulf on Saturday.
@SteveWAFB
Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Forecast to become #Cristobal and perhaps meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days. Official forecast still has it in the central/southern Gulf on Saturday.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:24 pm to slackster
They need some quantitative way to set the error bars based on model forecasts and then have to explain what that means to the masses. I would love to see what their actual confidence cones would look like, but it's probably better to rely on TV mets and local forecast offices to explain how uncertain it is.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:25 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:25 pm to The Boat
quote:
The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. The system has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward, and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of days. On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high. After that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre. The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs later this week. The latter portion of both the track and intensity forecast are of quite low confidence.
Sounds to me like we're getting a cyclone in the south-central GoM in either scenario, the only difference is whether it's TD3 or newly developed TD4.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:26 pm to The Boat
June fricking 1st and we already have a depression. Can't make this shite up.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:28 pm to Duke
quote:
They need some quantitative way to set the error bars based on model forecasts and then have to explain what that means to the masses. I would love to see what their actual confidence cones would look like, but it's probably better to rely on TV mets and local forecast offices to explain how uncertain it is.
That works as long as people watch the weather/news, but with social media it creates problems.
Regardless, it's probably best solved by simply remembering people are stupid.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:28 pm to slackster
quote:
Sounds to me like we're getting a cyclone in the south-central GoM in either scenario, the only difference is whether it's TD3 or newly developed TD4.
The big difference would be a Cristobal would be stronger and more organized as it starts it's move vs a maybe Dolly that would certainly be sloppy AF.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:29 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
June fricking 1st and we already have a depression. Can't make this shite up.
Are you aware of the reason this would gain the name Cristobal once it becomes a tropical storm?
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:30 pm to Duke
So where’s this thing gonna end up boys
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:31 pm to slackster
quote:
The NHC should consider some form of confidence forecasting cones. Using the last few years or errors doesn't illustrate the confidence or lack thereof in a particular forecast. The discussion helps, but the masses don't read that kind of thing.
Agreed.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:31 pm to Duke
quote:
The big difference would be a Cristobal would be stronger and more organized as it starts it's move vs a maybe Dolly that would certainly be sloppy AF.
Based on the names alone this seems logical.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:31 pm to JumpingTheShark
quote:
So where’s this thing gonna end up
Yes
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:33 pm to Duke
quote:
Dolly that would certainly be sloppy AF.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:37 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:48 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:
Going to come in right as I’m scheduled to go to the beach. shite.
No shite. We were supposed to leave Thursday for Gulf Shores but we were able to push forward to next Monday. We rescheduled because of the possibility, but mostly to see if the riots calm down. Kinda dangerous to travel through Mobile and parts of MS right now.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:58 pm to slackster
So that's about to drop a ton of rain in Mexico
Landslides, hoooooooo
That wasn't a complaint, just a joke. I know that forecasts beyond 2-3 days need a very large grain of salt.
Landslides, hoooooooo
quote:
And here we go. Like clockwork all during hurricane season that folks don't like that the forcasters can't tell us when and where a storm will hit 6 days out. ?
That wasn't a complaint, just a joke. I know that forecasts beyond 2-3 days need a very large grain of salt.
This post was edited on 6/1/20 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 6/1/20 at 5:09 pm to TDsngumbo
I meant in the BOC/Gulf threatening TX/LA. Carolinas don't count baw.
This post was edited on 6/1/20 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 6/1/20 at 5:43 pm to East Coast Band
Miles well prepare for this one now since it's already hard to get some supplies with the pandemic. This one will probably impact Louisiana whether it directly hits it or not. It being in C gulf ain't looking good for TX/LA gotta hit someone and just meanders around for a week in above-average temps for this time of the year. Why not? Need some rain anyway in LA. Not enough the past month although the past few weeks have helped a bit. Was starving before May.
This post was edited on 6/1/20 at 5:46 pm
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