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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:04 am to Caymus
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:04 am to Caymus
quote:
quote:
Can we get peej to come in here and say that this thing will be a direct hit?
He already came in here and said that it wasn't coming close to here.
god fricking damn it PJ
guess I'll head to the camp today and start boarding up
0
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:04 am to medtiger
Found 40 knot winds just need to find a closed low.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:07 am to Mudminnow
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:08 am to GEAUXmedic
Thats a sick graphic
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:08 am to Mudminnow
So this skipped "tropical depression" and went from wave to tropical storm in a day...sounds encouraging.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:08 am to GEAUXmedic
What island do they launch from?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:09 am to LSURoss
gullah gullah bruh
idk, +1 post count
idk, +1 post count
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:09 am to medtiger
quote:
The center of circulation and the place you see the most color on the map can be two different things. Although, I'm not sure anyone knows where the center is yet.
Yeah, here's a better shot of it. You can kind of see an "eye-like" hole in the middle about to swallow up PR so to speak. Still see a little jog South though.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:09 am to Ronnie
Once it has a closed low more than likely will skip the depression status
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:10 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
Can anyone explain to me why the Euro model is so much better than the GFS when the Europeans don't really ever have to worry about these storms?
Higher resolution, better data assimilation, better physics packages, etc
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:12 am to rds dc
I don't know what most of the shite in this thread means....it this thing projected to hit the gulf by Sunday/Monday IF it hits the gulf?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:12 am to rds dc
quote:
Higher resolution, better data assimilation, better physics packages, etc
Right but why doesn't the US spend more money and have the better facilities vs Euro? It would seem like the US has a more vested interest in these storms..
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:13 am to DollaChoppa
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:13 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
ETA: little know fact. he was on the first plane to fly into the eye of a storm off the coast of the philippines
I thought everyone in South LA that is above the age of say 20 knew that.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:14 am to MightyYat
Hard to say anything about movement right now. It's not closed off yet and fighting some shear. You've got to watch it over hours to see.
The big question now is how much Hispaniola will effect the system imo. A lot of wait and see.
The big question now is how much Hispaniola will effect the system imo. A lot of wait and see.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:14 am to LSUfan4444
quote:
I don't know what most of the shite in this thread means....it this thing projected to hit the gulf by Sunday/Monday IF it hits the gulf?
Late Sunday/early Monday seems like the most agreed upon time to enter the Gulf IF it enters at all.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:15 am to Duke
quote:
A lot of wait and see.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:15 am to rds dc
quote:
Can anyone explain to me why the Euro model is so much better than the GFS when the Europeans don't really ever have to worry about these storms?
Because all of our good scientists are too busy telling us Orlando will have beach front property in 20 years.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:15 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
Right but why doesn't the US spend more money and have the better facilities vs Euro? It would seem like the US has a more vested interest in these storms..
We are, they're replacing the GFS in 3 years.
quote:
NOAA has made developing the world's best global weather model a top priority, and on July 27, 2016, they announced that a new state-of-the art global forecasting model will replace the current GFS model.
The new model will also be called the GFS, and during its developmental stage, it will be run in a test mode before it becomes fully operational in about three years. The model will be run on powerful supercomputers.
NOAA has identified some goals for the new GFS model:
A unified system to improve forecast accuracy beyond eight to 10 days
Better model forecasts of hurricane tracks and intensity
Extension of weather forecasting through 14 days, and for extreme events, three to four weeks in advance
There was actually a competition of several models, one of which would be selected as the major "driver" of the new GFS model. These models were tested over a number of months, and a NOAA selection committee picked the Finite Volume on a Cubed Sphere (FV3) as the model that would be used.
This model was developed by NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey.
NOAA indicated that the FV3 core brings a new level of accuracy to the model's representation of atmospheric processes, such as air motions. This makes possible simulations of clouds and storms with a much higher resolution than what is used now.
As a result, the new GFS model will be able to provide localized forecasts for several weather events while generating a global forecast every six hours.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 10:16 am
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