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Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:17 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
I thought everyone in South LA that is above the age of say 20 knew that.
well he was last on the air in 2001. those 20 year olds were 5 years old.
I would up that to 26-28 year olds as the cutoff.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:19 am to rds dc
quote:
quote:
Can anyone explain to me why the Euro model is so much better than the GFS when the Europeans don't really ever have to worry about these storms?
Higher resolution, better data assimilation, better physics packages, etc
Yup. Honestly the answer is likely in funding differences.
LINK
"The European system also draws on more computing power, which enables the model to run on a finer grid, allowing higher resolution and better forecasts. Another important component is the underlying physics used to determine the differing physical properties of clouds. Here again, the European centers do a better job."
"To do this, they run simulations at slightly lower resolutions under different hypothetical conditions to determine where the uncertainties are in the forecasts. The European system runs 50 of these cycles, whereas the American GFS only runs 20."
"The superiority of ECMWF is largely due to Europe’s willingness to invest in software and spend on computers. “The Europeans have simply thrown more people and more money at it,” Masters says. “So they get better results.” In comparison, the U.S. has remained largely reactive—efforts are now being made now to upgrade computing power and improve data simulation systems, but our accuracy still lags behind."
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 10:20 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:19 am to rds dc
I will be in Wisconsin by the time it hits so I won't care. 
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:19 am to LSUFanHouston
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:20 am to Duke
Spann Blog
Latest from Spann:
INVEST 99L: This is the one getting all the attention simply because it has a decent chance of impacting some part of the U.S. Here is the current thinking…
*Seems like a CDO (central dense overcast) is developing early this morning, meaning there is a chance the wave is finally beginning to get it’s act together.
*Slow development is likely over the next few days, and confidence is high the system will pass just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reaching the Bahamas this weekend.
*It is very important to understand that forecasting the track and intensity will be almost impossible until we get a well defined low level circulation center, and a better sampling of the environmental conditions by NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet. We all play the “model map” game, but it is still more of a “guessing game” at this early phase of the game.
*Could this move across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Yes. But, not a certainty. If it does, it could wind up anywhere from Galveston to Panama City Beach next week. Nobody knows; no need to cancel vacation plans.
*If this becomes a tropical storm, the name will be “Hermine”… (her-MEEN)
Just keep up with the blog posts in coming days, and a much higher forecast solution will evolve. But you need to be working with current information. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and more details.
Latest from Spann:
INVEST 99L: This is the one getting all the attention simply because it has a decent chance of impacting some part of the U.S. Here is the current thinking…
*Seems like a CDO (central dense overcast) is developing early this morning, meaning there is a chance the wave is finally beginning to get it’s act together.
*Slow development is likely over the next few days, and confidence is high the system will pass just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reaching the Bahamas this weekend.
*It is very important to understand that forecasting the track and intensity will be almost impossible until we get a well defined low level circulation center, and a better sampling of the environmental conditions by NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet. We all play the “model map” game, but it is still more of a “guessing game” at this early phase of the game.
*Could this move across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Yes. But, not a certainty. If it does, it could wind up anywhere from Galveston to Panama City Beach next week. Nobody knows; no need to cancel vacation plans.
*If this becomes a tropical storm, the name will be “Hermine”… (her-MEEN)
Just keep up with the blog posts in coming days, and a much higher forecast solution will evolve. But you need to be working with current information. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and more details.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 10:45 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:21 am to AU24
56 mph winds, just needs a closed circulation
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:21 am to TFS4E
quote:
What island did they launch from?
St. Croix I believe.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:21 am to GEAUXmedic
Nice. Thanks for the info.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:22 am to thebhamdawgfan
quote:
*Could this move across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Yes. But, not a certainty. If it does, it could wind up anywhere from Galveston to Panama City Beach next week. Nobody knows; no need to cancel vacation plans.
Spann must be in this thread.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:23 am to Hulkklogan
fricking hell, you would think people living on the gulf would know what the hell a computer model, ridges, high pressure, etc is.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:23 am to supernovasky
quote:
supernovasky
This thread just got super legit with baytiger, rds, geauxmedic, and now supernovasky.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 10:25 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:23 am to thebhamdawgfan
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/28/19 at 9:38 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:23 am to TheWiz
quote:
St. Croix I believe.
So I guess they'll be spending more time investigating this system in the air because of the short distance?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:24 am to Weaver
quote:
I will be in Wisconsin by the time it hits so I won't care.
i bet you'll care if you dont have a home to come back to
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:24 am to thebhamdawgfan
quote::/
If it does, it could wind up anywhere from Galveston to Panama City Beach next week
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:25 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
This thread just got super legit with rds, geauxmedic, and now supernovasky.
and baytiger
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:25 am to rds dc
Wow, I just graduated and got a job in petroleum engineering after cold calling at least 200 companies. I'll be going offshore tomorrow for the first time ever for a week near the chandeleur islands.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 10:27 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:26 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
baytiger, rds, geauxmedic, and now supernovasky.
who do you have your money on?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 10:26 am to Mudminnow
quote:
56 mph winds, just needs a closed circulation
once it clears this area of shear it's on
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