re: Storm Tracking: Bertha - It's Over

054
WTNT32 KNHC 191450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from
Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h)
and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected
during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On
the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the
northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011
mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from
western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

This is some bullshite.

quote:

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I can’t imagine having to deal with storms 100 years ago. Our water is calm and sunny skies, no indication of something not too far over the horizon. Thankfully we have the ability to see the paths that these storms take

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Galveston agrees

How you doing AO. It’s good knowing folks like yall.

Call me if needed. Or for whatever reason.

It's obviously still early and waiting to see what the 4:00 PM complete advisory shows, but would it be a good idea to try and move an 8:00 AM Wednesday flight out of MSY up to late Tuesday instead?

quote:

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Hopefully this will just bring some much needed rain

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To texas? Or florida? Sure.

Us folks here in Mississippi dont need anymore rain at the moment after the past storm

quote:

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This is some bullshite.

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Why are you worried
If it shows the center passing through anywhere in LA besides the far eastern part you might not even get rain

Will Moreno ask the governor to declare a State of Emergency? LOL

Gonna turn into a cat 1 watch