Disco Ball

White River Knife & Tool M1 Caper is a my favorite
Now known simply as the White River Model 1
USA made.
It was odd looking to me until I had in hand and then I realized that great ergonomics and great looking rarely go together.
I carry this on the hiking trail, on the paddle trails and pretty much everywhere but it was origianlly designed as a caping knife

Yankee law enforcement
nuff said

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters out of Keesler AFB are doing their thing
"Teal 71" if you want to track them
The area of low level circulation is farther south than expected which is good news

054
WTNT32 KNHC 191450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from
Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h)
and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected
during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On
the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the
northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011
mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from
western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

quote:

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I like the UKX2 model. Let's go with that path.

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I'm no expert but I follow some who are and the general consensus of those folks is that it will slide south of LA and into south TX
It's way too early to make that call but either way this should not be a dangerous storm...just a rain maker
Get the yardwork done while you can

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

quote:

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I can’t believe how some people just like to shite all over other people’s accents

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Whoa...slow your roll there
This thread isn't that serious
It's Saturday night and we're just having cocktails and some fun
It drives me insane but my own girlfriend pronounces the "L" in salmon
She also thinks that latitude and longitude lines on a globe are highways.
I've learned to just smile and keep drinking

quote:

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Uhhh....because the word IS pronounced "pray-line."

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Let me guess
You must say "Crayfish"

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