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re: Storm Tracking: Bertha - It's Over

Posted on 7/19/26 at 11:41 am to
Posted by trussthetruzz
Idaho
Member since Sep 2020
9534 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 11:41 am to
quote:



This post was edited on 7/19/26 at 11:42 am
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
6052 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 11:46 am to
I was just telling my wife this morning “you know what would hit the spot right now, if our kids’s camps all closed for a day or two this week.”
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29662 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 11:54 am to
Well at least it'll be well out of the way before I head to the camp next Tuesday. Hopefully the specks will be nice and hungry.
Posted by VermilionTiger
Member since Dec 2012
39365 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Gonna turn into a cat 1 watch


Why? Because you’re worried that it does and you’re just coping?

Why would you even throw out an outlandishly uneducated prediction like this?
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79401 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 11:55 am to
Will be fun to see what happens if HLS production comes offline for southeastern refining.....
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa-Here to Serve
Member since Aug 2012
17287 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

Bigfishchoupique


Will do my friend. Hopefully no call will be needed.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135324 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

Gonna turn into a cat 1 watch

Posted by Macintosh
Lane State University
Member since Sep 2011
56844 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

Why would you even throw out an outlandishly uneducated prediction like this?
im sorry if my post over a small storm effected you emotionally and mentally in any way. I will be better
Posted by VermilionTiger
Member since Dec 2012
39365 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:12 pm to
You’re the emotional one

You’re posting about the Cat1 so someone can come back and reassure you that it won’t happen

Get a grip
This post was edited on 7/19/26 at 12:14 pm
Posted by Macintosh
Lane State University
Member since Sep 2011
56844 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:13 pm to
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
5385 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:28 pm to
One thing I always hate about slow moving storms like this is they have the potential to just absolutely dump on someone flooding wise. Obviously that's not now but maybe later this week.

The predictions this year Louisiana will get a A LOT of rain seem to be holding up true.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
103549 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

This is some bullshite.


Mets finally predicted a below average season after years of predicting an above average one only for it to be a bust.

This will be the year we get a bunch of hurricanes with a U.S. landfall. Watch
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
5385 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:35 pm to
They seem to be predicting that because they also think El Nino is going to be historically strong this season which negatively impacts hurricanes in our region but brings a lot of rain. Supposedly they think this could linger into parts of next year and if that's true, you have to worry about serious flooding around spring time due to stalled fronts. They don't know though can't predict weather.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15584 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

One thing I always hate about slow moving storms like this is they have the potential to just absolutely dump on someone flooding wise. Obviously that's not now but maybe later this week.


This one is a tad bit strange given its location and potentially track. If it stays parallel to the coast and northerly windshear is still around most of the rain and bad stuff will be south and west of the coasts.
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6330 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

They seem to be predicting that because they also think El Nino is going to be historically strong this season which negatively impacts hurricanes in our region but brings a lot of rain. Supposedly they think this could linger into parts of next year and if that's true, you have to worry about serious flooding around spring time due to stalled fronts. They don't know though can't predict weather


El Niño shuts down the mdr - not storms that spin up 200 miles offshore and don’t amount to much
Also the above average rainfall predictions are mostly because fall/winter will be way above because of the subtropical jet that El Niño brings

The most impressive thing about this storm has been the accuracy of the euro AI model - been predicting this track for at least 5 days
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6330 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

This one is a tad bit strange given its location and potentially track. If it stays parallel to the coast and northerly windshear is still around most of the rain and bad stuff will be south and west of the coasts


Yea if it slides a little bit further south when it heads west most of LA won’t catch any rain
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15584 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

Yea if it slides a little bit further south when it heads west most of LA won’t catch any rain


Yep stronger= mouth S/SW motion as the other ridge to its west start pulling it.

Posted by Motorboat
At the camp
Member since Oct 2007
24276 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

quote:Should I start looking at earlier flights if I'm scheduled to fly out of MSY Thursday morning? I have the same question


I also have this question but I hate the dvs that come from asking about specific plans in these threads.
Posted by lsutigernosaint
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2007
3939 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 1:19 pm to
Planning to drive to Panama City Beach tomorrow. Is this a safe idea?
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
24386 posts
Posted on 7/19/26 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Planning to drive to Panama City Beach tomorrow. Is this a safe idea?

You’re probably fine.
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