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Started By
Message
re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:41 pm to RummelTiger
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:41 pm to RummelTiger
Downvoting the observation thread?
Por que?
Por que?
2
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:43 pm to Penn
This storm track looks similar to hurricane Floyd which came to St Augustine, which I fled from there to Tallahassee then back to Laffy back in 1999. 
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:43 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
And where can they go, Tampa? Hotels will be booked from Tallahassee to Tampa for sure.
Hotels are already sold out. May have to go out to Pensacola.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:44 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Downvoting the observation thread?
Can you see who is down voting? Always wondered that.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:44 pm to slackster
Haha guess it's time to update from that move..four years ago!
This post was edited on 10/4/16 at 10:46 pm
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:45 pm to Penn
Through 48 hours, 00Z GFS is a little farther south than it was at 18Z and looks like it may make a FL landfall.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:46 pm to rds dc
quote:
One interesting low probability cluster to emerge from the ensembles overnight is a curve back to the south somewhere around 70W. That would be a major pain. It shows up on the 06z GEFS and the 00z Euro EPS.
06z GEFS:
So the 06z GEFS had a few odd looking members this morning:
and then the 12z UK did this:
and then the 12z Euro:
I'm sure this is all old news by now in this thread but I was out of pocket most of the day. This was something that I've been watching for in the models as the West Coast trough kept trending weaker, the Atlantic ridge kept trending stronger, and the system kept trending slower. It will probably end up just being a blimp in the models and a more traditional solution may ultimately be correct. There are some other concerning options still on the table, if things keep trending.
Something else to note from the 12z Euro - the green dotted line coming out of the Caribbean towards Cuba. That is from what will likely be 99L.
It is looking pretty healthy on sat this evening:
Conditions could end up looking favorable for development out ahead of it. It appears to be superimposed with a KW this evening or maybe even earlier today. So that would put it in a 2 to 3 day window of favorable conditions for development and that lines up pretty nicely with what the Euro is showing above.
Lots of issues still to be resolved with Matthew but October could end up being a busy month.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:49 pm to rds dc
Welcome back 
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:52 pm to roadGator
quote:Sure? Look at all that beach to shield the course we'll be playing.
No way that's happening.
Yeah, it ain't happening.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:52 pm to NorthEndZone
60-66 hours...western eyewall drags along the coast
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:52 pm to rds dc
Do you think future 99L will be a threat to the Gulf? I assumed it would not but with some models sniffing out a loop for Matthew then it is clear that the ridging to the north will not allow 99L to lift out very much and the very end of the Euro does seem to show a switch to a more westerly movement. I assumed with the strong cold front coming through on Saturday that the Gulf would be closed for business but I don't know the all the dynamics involved.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:53 pm to RummelTiger
I'd rather just keep it going as it is.
Until someone posts it to Cincykid's girlfriend's Facebook page.
Until someone posts it to Cincykid's girlfriend's Facebook page.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:55 pm to rds dc
I'm anxious to see what the 00z ECMWF does. That should come out soon, right?
Posted on 10/4/16 at 10:59 pm to BigB0882
quote:
Do you think future 99L will be a threat to the Gulf? I assumed it would not but with some models sniffing out a loop for Matthew then it is clear that the ridging to the north will not allow 99L to lift out very much and the very end of the Euro does seem to show a switch to a more westerly movement. I assumed with the strong cold front coming through on Saturday that the Gulf would be closed for business but I don't know the all the dynamics involved.
Too early to tell but the MJO looks to keep the Gulf/WCARB in a favorable overall state for the next couple of weeks. Just something to keep an eye on, esp. with the Atlantic ridge constantly over performing the past few weeks.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 11:02 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
I'd rather just keep it going as it is.
I will just say this, as odd as it might sound to some, there are people that will legitimately use these threads to keep themselves updated/safe during and after storms. I know firsthand that those with the LA Emergency Management office were actually following along with the Katrina thread because people were posting real time events. Now, I'm obviously not saying that they were making any decisions based on what they saw on here, but I know they were reading along.
Over the years it has morphed, thankfully, due to the likes of rds and Bay, into a place where professionals are able to give their thoughts in regards to what they see - and we've found that as a storm threatens the US, and more people become interested, then it makes sense to have a thread that is separate from the regular thread so that people do not have to wade through pages of random stuff.
It's still the same people, and same information, but better organized...and the ability to keep making fun of Peej!
Posted on 10/4/16 at 11:04 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Downvoting the observation thread?
FWIW I like the idea of a observation thread with only those in the path being able to post. Good way to follow the storm and not having to sift through the BS.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 11:04 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
I'm anxious to see what the 00z ECMWF does. That should come out soon, right?
12:45 pm, I only stay up for the Euro when snow is in the forecast for my backyard
00z GFS is a tad west on this run and slower but it has a stronger Nicole than 12z. It is also has a much weaker northern stream trough through 90hrs, looking more Euro'ish in that respect.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 11:06 pm to rds dc
quote:EDT or CDT? I'm not staying woke for another hour and a half
12:45 pm
Posted on 10/4/16 at 11:07 pm to RummelTiger
I'd be in for a live action thread.
Frick you Matthew.
Frick you Matthew.
Posted on 10/4/16 at 11:07 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
EDT or CDT? I'm not staying woke for another hour and a half
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