- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/28/16 at 9:48 am to skinny domino
What's the difference between computer models and ensemble models?
Why the disparity here? Thanks
Computer model:
Ensemble model:
Why the disparity here? Thanks
Computer model:
Ensemble model:
Posted on 9/28/16 at 9:50 am to Palmetto08
quote:
What's the difference between computer models and ensemble models?
That ensemble model is for the GFS only.
quote:
Why the disparity here?
There is no disparity.
Posted on 9/28/16 at 9:55 am to Palmetto08
Ensembles are slightly different scenarios ran that gives you a spread of possibilities from that model, in this case the GFS.
Posted on 9/28/16 at 10:21 am to Duke
Bad for Jamaica...
Posted on 9/28/16 at 10:25 am to NorthEndZone
Is there a chance this thing doesn't take that hard right and comes into gulf and could be a threat to us?
Posted on 9/28/16 at 11:00 am to Theboot32
quote:
Is there a chance this thing doesn't take that hard right and comes into gulf and could be a threat to us?
It's weather....there's always a chance. Same is there's a chance it doesn't become a hurricane and there's a chance it dicipates and becomes some light rain
Posted on 9/28/16 at 11:00 am to Theboot32
I hope not, but that's one crazy arse hook
Posted on 9/28/16 at 11:26 am to Palmetto08
If you look at the computer models image, you will see 5 different computer models listed: GFS, NGFDL, GFDL, XTRP, and HWRF.
HWRF and XTRP are null, so ignore them.
Different computer models are applying the governing equations for weather differently. The true governing equations for weather involve many, many mathematical terms and no model is capable of solving all of the terms together. Therefore, each of the computer models is showing solutions to the weather equations with different terms emphasized.
An ensemble model is picking one of the computer models (in this case GFS) and running it many times with different initial and boundary conditions for the mathematical terms (some people call this a Monte Carlo process).
You may notice the white line in the ensemble image is the same as the red line in the computer model image. All of the pink lines are variational simulations from the initial/boundary conditions that coincided with the white line. They do this to try and gauge the sensitivity of the computer model to the uncertainty in measurements, governing equations, the computer model itself, etc.
Right now, it looks like only the GFS model has the big hook in it. This thing could still very easily end up in the gulf.
HWRF and XTRP are null, so ignore them.
Different computer models are applying the governing equations for weather differently. The true governing equations for weather involve many, many mathematical terms and no model is capable of solving all of the terms together. Therefore, each of the computer models is showing solutions to the weather equations with different terms emphasized.
An ensemble model is picking one of the computer models (in this case GFS) and running it many times with different initial and boundary conditions for the mathematical terms (some people call this a Monte Carlo process).
You may notice the white line in the ensemble image is the same as the red line in the computer model image. All of the pink lines are variational simulations from the initial/boundary conditions that coincided with the white line. They do this to try and gauge the sensitivity of the computer model to the uncertainty in measurements, governing equations, the computer model itself, etc.
Right now, it looks like only the GFS model has the big hook in it. This thing could still very easily end up in the gulf.
This post was edited on 9/28/16 at 11:28 am
Posted on 9/28/16 at 11:31 am to CFDoc
Great explanation.
Can someone direct me to a site where I can view the various ensembles?
Can someone direct me to a site where I can view the various ensembles?
Posted on 9/28/16 at 11:33 am to CFDoc
Posted on 9/28/16 at 11:55 am to ForeverLSU02
Decent eastward shift on the 12z GFS and the 00z Euro was east of the 12z from yesterday at D10. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro does today but the more easterly GFS may end up being right in the end.
Posted on 9/28/16 at 12:29 pm to Palmetto08
Where is the Euro on this Map?This post was edited on 9/28/16 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 9/28/16 at 12:36 pm to link
quote:
looks like i'll wait another year to get my generator serviced
Posted on 9/28/16 at 12:39 pm to tigerbutt
Of course I would be going to DC next week.
Posted on 9/28/16 at 12:45 pm to Dizz
So often these things veer north and then north east and often don't impact the US that I've kind of gotten used to anticipating that's what it will do.
Posted on 9/28/16 at 2:11 pm to BigB0882
quote:
Those cutoff lows keep diving
This 12z Euro run has cutoffs everywhere! There is about a 48hr window after D7 where the system could either get turned back into the Gulf from east of Florida or go out to sea. Just crazy looking run beyond D5.
Posted on 9/28/16 at 2:26 pm to rds dc
quote:a symptom of this crazy-arse meridional jet pattern we have right now. Making my job a nightmare
This 12z Euro run has cutoffs everywhere!
Posted on 9/28/16 at 2:38 pm to baytiger
what do you do?
Posted on 9/28/16 at 2:39 pm to rds dc
gonna be a long week i suspect
Page 10 of 181
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News