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Started By
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re: Some Math for the Karens and Kevins on why this is LESS deadly than flu
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:41 am to TigrrrDad
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:41 am to TigrrrDad
quote:I hope that is true, but I think the tests you are referencing included NYC and surrounding hard hit areas. I'm not sure that number is indicative of the broader rate accross the country.
Your math isn’t far off, because the antibody tests are showing around 13-14% infected.
0
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:42 am to LSU Fan SLU Grad
quote:
Can you just accept the fact that many ICUs around the world were at capacity, which doesn’t happen with the seasonal flu?
Google the term "hospitals overwhelmed by flu" and report back to me.
It happens regularly but no one beats you over the head with it 24/7.
You get a brief story on the 10pm local news not a parish/state/federal press conference everyday.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:42 am to JOJO Hammer
Hard to believe that 80% know it based on the numbers this week. They didn't know much in the beginning
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:42 am to notiger1997
quote:
There are a lot of good things to argue for in our fight to let us to back to normal, but the flu comparisons are stupid as has been proven over and over.
They're not stupid if the real death rate for this ends up around 0.5%
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:44 am to LSU Fan SLU Grad
quote:
Can you just accept the fact that many ICUs around the world were at capacity, which doesn’t happen with the seasonal flu?
I dont believe this either. But im only going from stories from ICU nurses.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:45 am to JOJO Hammer
quote:
80% of the people who get infected will not know it.
I don't think that's exactly right. I believe it was 80% will have "mild to moderate" symptoms, which ranges from asymptomatic to 10+ days of the worst "flu" you've ever had with or without pneumonia that didn't result in a hospital stay.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:46 am to JOJO Hammer
quote:
we’ve been told from the beginning that 80% of the people who get infected will not know it.
where are you getting that 80% are asymptomatic?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:47 am to dgnx6
quote:
I dont believe this either. But im only going from stories from ICU nurses.
Depends on how you define many I suppose. But you had examples in your local area.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:48 am to setinways
quote:
Ok but California's total cases are lower per capital than others. I bet that 5% of the population is multiple (like 20 times) higher th as n their "case count"
My point is that NY is the only state reporting an antibody % over 10%.
For OP's math, you need 12% nationally for his numbers to hold. Everyone but NY isn't close even by antibody %'s.
I.e., if you use California's high end antibody # of 5% and extrapolate across the nation, you get a mortality rate 3x the flu.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:51 am to WaydownSouth
quote:The people who are tested are people who were sick. You can’t just extrapolate that to the entire population, many of whom were never sick, and then use the same number of deaths.
Its not crazy hoops. Its the extrapolation of data. I even lowered the positive rate by almost 33%
That is unbelievably idiotic logic.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:54 am to LSU Fan SLU Grad
quote:
Can you just accept the fact that many ICUs around the world were at capacity, which doesn’t happen with the seasonal flu?
In fact, it does sometimes happen with the flu. See below Google search.
2018 flu hospital overrun
Really, click that link and read the articles.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 10:58 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:54 am to PrimeTime Money
He’s currently rewatching the video from the poli board to figure out where he went wrong 
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:55 am to TigrrrDad
quote:
Your math isn’t far off, because the antibody tests are showing around 13-14% infected. The mortality rate is mere fraction of what is being reported. Probably the 0.2% range.
We have to take these numbers with a grain of salt. The assay on these tests is not yet reliable. There is a potential a huge issue with it picking up antibodies from other coronavirus strains.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:56 am to WaydownSouth
How dare you........Print these facts with these idiots on the rant LOL
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 11:00 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:58 am to WaydownSouth
I enjoy Waydowns daily melt threads
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:58 am to DollaChoppa
quote:
Wait but it’s going to kill more people than the flu does, so can you really say it’s less deadly.
In a much shorter time span, too.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:59 am to uway
quote:
They're not stupid if the real death rate for this ends up around 0.5%
That's five times deadlier than the flu.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:01 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
He’s currently rewatching the video from the poli board to figure out where he went wrong
Wait, that's where this idea is from?
That explains so much.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:02 am to WaydownSouth
quote:
Kevins
Quit trying to make this a thing.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:04 am to WaydownSouth
We really won’t know until widespread antibody testing due to a lot of asymptomatic carriers
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