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re: Some Math for the Karens and Kevins on why this is LESS deadly than flu
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:04 am to Nado Jenkins83
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:04 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
does that include the people that were never tested?
I have no idea. I just got a text alert from Fox News a couple minutes before this thread was posted saying 50,000 deaths now after 3,000 died yesterday. I didn't bother opening the link because I'm more of a lazy headline reader most of the time
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:04 am to WaydownSouth
quote:
WaydownSouth
Did we make it one or two days since you last melt?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:05 am to notiger1997
Amen. Putting forth these arguments only paints the "open it up" position in bad light. The data is pretty clear that the virus is not to be taken lightly. However, a complete shut down without any effort on economic maintenance is a complete overreaction. There must be mitigation efforts but there has to be some critical level thinking on how we can best mitigate while avoiding a total economic collapse. It's not all or or nothing.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:05 am to Ross
quote:
alright Karen had a good run, but it's time to retire it.
Seriously.

Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:05 am to TDsngumbo
i just find it telling that the new york times of all outlets ran that story of 3700 people dead that did not get tested but were lumped into the death toll. if so how many other places have similar numbers
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:06 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
i just find it telling that the new york times of all outlets ran that story of 3700 people dead that did not get tested but were lumped into the death toll. if so how many other places have similar numbers
Were they not tested before their death or were they never tested at all, even after death? Because there's a significant difference there.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:06 am to Antonio Moss
Deaths are the only thing being confirmed... in fact they are over compensating for it.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:07 am to WaydownSouth
quote:
its safe to say you can attribute that number to 330 Million americans if they/we were all tested.
It's a really big leap to say you can attribute the % of positive tests from the tested group to the population as a whole.
So far, we're only testing people with symptoms or known exposures. Assuming you have close to the same rate of positives in the lower risk population seems like a huge leap.
Even the arbitrary decrease to 12%...you're basically shotgunning the potential rate in 326 mil low risk people based on 4 mil high risk or symptomatic people.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 10:16 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:07 am to WaydownSouth
quote:
Simple minded people will have you believe the death rate is 5.5%.
Death rate is 100% for 46,379. Prayers to their family and friends during this time. Only a couple of months into this pandemic. Don't let your guard down.
FYI...I'm not a shut-it-down person. I'm at work right now with 350+ people. We've been nonstop from the beginning. So far, using CDC guidelines and common sense, we are coronavirus-less throughout the building. Open up the economy!
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:08 am to Salmon
quote:
you think 40 millions Americans currently have COVID?
I think he's saying that 40 million is the estimate of people being infected so far. Given that many people have gotten it and shown no symptoms or haven't gotten tested, I don't think that's an out of bounds number.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:08 am to TDsngumbo
never tested at all is what the article said. neither pre or post death
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:08 am to WaydownSouth
quote:
Deaths are the only thing being confirmed... in fact they are over compensating for it.
you don't even understand why your own math is wrong
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:09 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
never tested at all is what the article said. neither pre or post death
If that's the case then that's bullshite.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:10 am to upgrayedd
quote:
I think he's saying that 40 million is the estimate of people being infected so far. Given that many people have gotten it and shown no symptoms or haven't gotten tested, I don't think that's an out of bounds number.
if we are going by the antibody studies, its like 3-4x higher than the amount being projected
so yes, its an "out of bounds number" by any estimation
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:11 am to Salmon
Its not wrong at all. They are literally adding people like that nurse that dropped dead in her apartment but was positive for Covid -19
If people die the first thing they will do is check for Covid. Its not being missed. We don’t have testing available to check asymptotic patients which make up the majority.
I’m sorry my math is too complicated for the simple citizens of Louisiana. Thankfully I was educated out of state away from this shite education system
If people die the first thing they will do is check for Covid. Its not being missed. We don’t have testing available to check asymptotic patients which make up the majority.
I’m sorry my math is too complicated for the simple citizens of Louisiana. Thankfully I was educated out of state away from this shite education system
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:11 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Were they not tested before their death or were they never tested at all, even after death? Because there's a significant difference there.
They weren't tested before/after but had symptoms. I don't think it's bad math to include those (reasonably accurate based on the number of "excess" deaths there were in NYC, and every other cause of death has that same fudging).
But, since the death total is used in public as arguments to do/not do something, it honestly would have been best to exclude those for now. It's better to argue using data that's closer to irrefutable. Adding in presumptives or estimates now just clouds things - even if is scientifically reasonable.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:11 am to TDsngumbo
LINK
muh testing
quote:
New York City, already a world epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll by more than 3,700 victims on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.
muh testing
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:12 am to WaydownSouth
quote:
330,000,000 x .12 = 39,600,000 that would likely test positive if all Americans were tested
What the frick?
Didn’t you say you were in healthcare? This is just embarrassing for you.
Do you realize the people tested were tested because they had symptoms and we suspected of having the disease. You can’t just extrapolate that number onto the general population
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:13 am to WaydownSouth
quote:
Its not wrong at all. They are literally adding people like that nurse that dropped dead in her apartment but was positive for Covid -19
If people die the first thing they will do is check for Covid. Its not being missed. We don’t have testing available to check asymptotic patients which make up the majority.
I’m sorry my math is too complicated for the simple citizens of Louisiana. Thankfully I was educated out of state away from this shite education system
thanks for proving my point
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