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1
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:40 am to BeepNode
I didn't quote and reply to that question, smartass
I replied to the question about people under 45.
I replied to the question about people under 45.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 11:41 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:58 am to WaydownSouth
This is the dumbest OP I’ve ever encountered in all my years reading this site. Congratulations.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 11:59 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:00 pm to WaydownSouth
you/yourIQ = 1
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:03 pm to MardiGrasCajun
The barriers to safely opening up the economy are geniuses like the OP. Governors don't trust the population to behave responsibly.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:05 pm to uway
considering the name of the virus is SARS-CoV-2, I'd say its definitely more similar to SARS than the flu.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:06 pm to Salmon
There are 3 examples all around 14% - the NY and L.A. county antibody tests, and the percentage infected on the Theodore Roosevelt ship. These numbers are also consistent with the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 12:10 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:19 pm to Antonio Moss
Ummm? Why would he do that? Dead is dead. We have a hard # on that data.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:23 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
There are 3 examples all around 14% - the NY and L.A. county antibody tests, and the percentage infected on the Theodore Roosevelt ship. These numbers are also consistent with the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
LA County wasn't 14%, it was 4.1%.
Link to study results
OP would need a national level of 12% for his numbers to be correct. If national numbers are like LA County, Covid is roughly 3 times deadlier than the flu.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:26 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
There are 3 examples all around 14% - the NY and L.A. county antibody tests, and the percentage infected on the Theodore Roosevelt ship.
The LA county antibody test estimated to 2.8% to 5.6%
quote:
and the percentage infected on the Theodore Roosevelt ship. These numbers are also consistent with the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
again...extrapolated high density cases to the entire population doesn't make sense
I wouldn't expect the same % of people to have been infected in Iowa than I would have in NYC
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:39 pm to Salmon
quote:And those estimates probably high by a factor of 4 or 5.
The LA county antibody test estimated to 2.8% to 5.6%
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:45 pm to WaydownSouth
50k dead now, and that's with shutting the entire country down for 2 months.
You can spin it however you want but this thing is nasty and it's not over
You can spin it however you want but this thing is nasty and it's not over
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:03 pm to Dick Leverage
quote:
Ummm? Why would he do that? Dead is dead. We have a hard # on that data.
Because exposure/spread is clearly not equal state-to-state unless you believe that the percentage of symptomatic cases varies based on geographic location - which is absurd.
For example, Louisiana and Kentucky have almost identical state populations (LA is 4.6 Million, KY is just under 4.5 million).
Louisiana has 26,140 confirmed cases of COVID; Kentucky has 3,481.
So clearly there is no uniform spread of COVID across the U.S. - which makes total sense considering how infectious disease spreads.
So if you are going to estimate infected numbers by extrapolating positive tests across the entire U.S. population, you would have to extrapolate deaths per positive infected based on smaller geographic regions first.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:11 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
50,000 now
and 15x as many will die this year from CVD, yet fast-food flourishes and nobody wants to ban corn syrup.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:39 pm to WaydownSouth
quote:
828,441/ 4,466,000 = 18.5% positive rate. Without the widespread testing available and a novel virus that spreads quickly, its safe to say you can attribute that number to 330 Million americans if they/we were all tested. However since most being tested are admitted to the hospital, I’ll be generous and drop it to 12% for the sake of the argument.
If you are comparing it to the Flu, you have to provide the same data for the flu. How many were tested and whats the positive rate for the flu ?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 3:04 pm to WaydownSouth
quote:
Its not crazy hoops. Its the extrapolation of data. I even lowered the positive rate by almost 33%
You think using simple extrapolation is a good model for determining the mortality rate of a virus? Do you still believe in the tooth fairly?
Posted on 4/24/20 at 3:22 pm to Ross
quote:Especially when someone doesn't understand the Karen meme.
alright Karen had a good run, but it's time to retire it
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