re: Some Math for the Karens and Kevins on why this is LESS deadly than flu

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if we are going by the antibody studies, its like 3-4x higher than the amount being projected

so yes, its an "out of bounds number" by any estimation

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I think swine flu had an estimated 60 million infected, so it's not really an out of bounds number.

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I think he's saying that 40 million is the estimate of people being infected so far. Given that many people have gotten it and shown no symptoms or haven't gotten tested, I don't think that's an out of bounds number.

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Finally someone who understands

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i just find it telling that the new york times of all outlets ran that story of 3700 people dead that did not get tested but were lumped into the death toll. if so how many other places have similar numbers

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You know it's pretty easy to find this data.

As of last week, of all COVID deaths, 85% were coded as "test confirmed" and 15% were "presumed."

That 15% number will continue to fall in terms of ratio as many of the presumed deaths occurred early on before widespread testing.

But, for the sake of argument, let's say the percentages held through today. That means roughly 42,500 of the 50,000 COVID deaths are test confirmed and 7500 are presumed.

So what is the error rate on presumptions? Probably less than 5% but let's throw the conspiracy theorist a bone and say half the presumed COVID deaths are inaccurate.

That would mean that there is an overcount of 3750. But that also fails to account for any undercounts that occurred by missing cases early on and, especially, the exponential growth in "at-home" deaths that occurred in NYC during NYC's peak deaths.

The fact of the matter is that it is MUCH MORE LIKELY that we have had over 50,000 deaths than under 50,000.

But did they? Or did they die of being fat

Its not an embarrassment at all. We have a sample size of 4.4 million. Its fair to extrapolate that on a large scale.

Again the majority of cases are asymptotic and we don’t have enough tests available for every single person to get one.

I really hope you are trolling when you claim to be a DR

Please explain to us doctorbaw how only 1-3% of people tested in California had antibodies to coronavirus but you believe 12% of people have gotten the disease.

Sample size of 1100 vs 4 million. Next question

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Sample size of 1100 vs 4 million. Next question

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Stop throwing around the term sample size. You don’t even know what that means or why it’s relevant in scientific studies.

Percentage positive tests in SUSPECTED patients does not equal percentage positive of the general population. Every person with a high school education knows this.

He watched the YouTube video on the Poli board by a couple of “urgent care entrepreneurs” who tried to create this talking point and he thinks it’s a gotcha. It’s so stupid that most people won’t even bother engaging him.

I have a few questions about your math and some of the assumptions:

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The missing number, which was hard to find, is how many total tests we have done. 4,466,000 roughly as of 4/22.

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Is that the number of tests performed or the number of people tested?

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its safe to say you can attribute that number to 330 Million americans

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I'm not sure that works given the hot spot nature of the spread. Can you expand on why this is a statistically safe assumption?

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I’ll be generous and drop it to 12% for the sake of the argument.

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Is that being generous? Didn't the California antibody testing indicate 2.8 to 5.6% infection rate of the adult population? Why wouldn't you use that number to extrapolate across the 330 million? Should we exclude children?

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Right on par with the seasonal Flu and less than a severe flu season

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My biggest problem is you started with this result and tried to backfill it with stats. It's just not sound.

Having said that. My state has weathered the pandemic remarkable well and, I'm of the opinion, should start opening things back up strategically.