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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:04 pm to weadjust
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:04 pm to weadjust
quote:
Tropical Storm Olga in Oct 2019 wrecked shite in N. MS and Tennessee last fall. Major power outages across the region and a cell tower blown down.
We were without power for 2 days and had 3-4 houses in the neighborhood with trees on them after Olga in Mandeville.
2
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:09 pm to John Casey
Olga? I’m in mandeville and don’t even remember an Olga
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:09 pm to back9Tiger
I had a housekeeper from Guatemala named Olga.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:11 pm to back9Tiger
You don’t remember surprise 60-70mph winds last year?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:12 pm to Duke
GFS shift was about 30 miles east from LA/MS line to about Long Beach / Gulfport
Pressure drop at landfall from 994 to 977 mb.
That is very significant this late in the game, but another 6 hours will tell if it is a trend.
Pressure drop at landfall from 994 to 977 mb.
That is very significant this late in the game, but another 6 hours will tell if it is a trend.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:12 pm to TDsngumbo
That was fun at 5am. LSU played Auburn that day.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:13 pm to TDsngumbo
Outflow continues to improve and even encroach north a little as convection fires closer to center.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:13 pm to back9Tiger
Winds
Post-tropical cyclone Olga produced strong and damaging winds over an approximately 300 n mi wide swath of the southern United States, including parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The highest wind observation over land was recorded at the LSU Coastal Studies Institute in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, where sustained winds of 48 kt and a gust of 62 kt were reported on 26 September 2019. Wind gusts as high as 63 kt were reported at Mandeville, Louisiana. A wind gust to 64 kt was reported near Ripley, Mississippi. Wind gusts of 40–50 kt were widespread across the above three states.
Post-tropical cyclone Olga produced strong and damaging winds over an approximately 300 n mi wide swath of the southern United States, including parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The highest wind observation over land was recorded at the LSU Coastal Studies Institute in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, where sustained winds of 48 kt and a gust of 62 kt were reported on 26 September 2019. Wind gusts as high as 63 kt were reported at Mandeville, Louisiana. A wind gust to 64 kt was reported near Ripley, Mississippi. Wind gusts of 40–50 kt were widespread across the above three states.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:15 pm to weadjust
Was this the one that hit us around the Auburn game? That little storm packed a punch in my area.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:17 pm to Duke
Okay this is starting to look much better a lot earlier than I thought.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:17 pm to John Casey
I remember that! I live in Old Mandeville. That sucked!!!! So many trees on houses, power lines, and roads. It was nasty trying to sleep for 2 days in the heat.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:18 pm to deuce985
quote:
Was this the one that hit us around the Auburn game? That little storm packed a punch in my area.
Yes it was the same day as the Auburn game. My power was out for most of Saturday afternoon.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:19 pm to rmnldr
quote:
Okay this is starting to look much better a lot earlier than I thought.
All that convection along the panhandle and southern Georgia worked to push the shearing ULL back this afternoon. Really noticed it backing away an hour or two ago.
Always hard to tell just looking at satellite but presentation definitely improved fast this afternoon.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:19 pm to lsufan9193969700
I get confused with all these updates...it has been trending west now all of a sudden it jumped back East and stronger? Is this just one model predicting this right now?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:21 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
GFS shift was about 30 miles east from LA/MS line to about Long Beach / Gulfport
Pressure drop at landfall from 994 to 977 mb.
18z ICON stronger and east. Maybe the HMON pulls the trick here since it was the 1st to pickup on this trend. Need to see the models hold because they could very well shift back at 00z.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:21 pm to marinebioman
quote:
I get confused with all these updates...it has been trending west now all of a sudden it jumped back East and stronger? Is this just one model predicting this right now?
It's a model showing it.
There has been a trend on ensemble products showing a stronger system turning north earlier and ending up east. It does make some sense why it'd do that.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:22 pm to marinebioman
quote:
..it has been trending west now all of a sudden it jumped back East and stronger?
It jogged back east over west st. Tammany but I don’t know about it getting stronger though wind wise.
EDIT: Nevermind. Just saw post afterwards talking about the other models. My bad, dawg.
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 5:23 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:32 pm to Duke
We should get stacking surely at dmax right? I’m still thinking this is moreso a MS storm at this point
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:34 pm to rmnldr
Felicia is on TWC now
Posted on 9/13/20 at 5:35 pm to rmnldr
When y’all are saying it looks better.... does that mean it looks stronger? Or it looks better like it’s weakening and better for our outcome?
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