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Message
1
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:57 pm to jmarto1
quote:
Just checked in my mom on Indian Village road. Water hasn't risen there yet
THE MEATLOAF!!!!!
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:59 pm to The Boat
I imagined it this way and every tulanelsu post as this
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:03 pm to The Boat
TB?!?
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:04 pm to rmnldr
quote:
Pretty sure the ensemble members are the “what-if” scenarios where they play around with potential factors of the storm making it stronger/weaker or changing steering. The operational model is supposed to be the most accurate using the most up to date data.
It's not playing around with things, it's changing parameters (like coefficients of friction in the surface boundary layer) that the model uses to account for factors that are impossible to measure properly or calculate in any reasonable amount of time. It's trying to account for the uncertainties those assumptions bring into the numerical solutions the models produce. There is some tweaking of initial conditions as well.
The ensembles also aren't run at the same resolution as the operational ones.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:05 pm to Spasweezy
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:05 pm to rattlebucket
A few pictures out and about this evening at the Pass on West Beach in Gulf Shores. One of the Oyster farm in Ft Morgan. Praying it survives this onslaught.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:06 pm to fightin tigers
Sally is looking better on radar than she has in a while. Still just drifting for the most part.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:07 pm to Duke
quote:
The ensembles also aren't run at the same resolution as the operational ones.
That’s another good point.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:10 pm to slackster
FEMA getting ready in Baton Rouge tonight
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:10 pm to slackster
A great example of what the middle line means.
Do we think that's the most likely path tonight? The stronger members all go east vs the weak ones going west. It tells us weaker west and stronger east, which we've figured out at this point but confirms the idea.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:10 pm to deltaland
Definitely seeing a defined eye coming together now on radar:
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 8:12 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:10 pm to TulaneLSU
quote:
P.S. Mobile is the absolute worst city in America. Everything about it is gross.
What’s with all the hate on anything even somewhat related to Mobile in your threads? I lived there a year and thought it was nice small city. Short drive to the gorgeous east shore area, nice beaches are close by, nice sized city, a good local university and college. It’s basically a smaller, clean family friendly version of New Orleans without all the murderers, whores, stench and filth.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:13 pm to tzimme4
Tropical Storm Warning for EBR cancelled.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:13 pm to Ramblin Wreck
quote:
What’s with all the hate on anything even somewhat related to Mobile in your threads? I lived there a year and thought it was nice small city. Short drive to the gorgeous east shore area, nice beaches are close by, nice sized city, a good local university and college. It’s basically a smaller, clean family friendly version of New Orleans without all the murderers, whores, stench and filth.
Yeah it’s not ideal but it’s still a pretty decent place. IMO nicer than Baton Rouge or New Orleans. I was surprised at how shitty Baton Rouge was......I thought he OT had been exaggerating all these years.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:13 pm to slackster
quote:
Herp derp.
Storm has never left the cone.
Herp derp, cone has shifted
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:13 pm to rds dc
What happens if we go through the greek alphabet do we then proceed to heiroglyphs
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:14 pm to Fishwater
the sky had an apocalypse now kinda vibe when i left work this evening.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:14 pm to yatesdog38
Clicks and whistles
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:15 pm to Ramblin Wreck
quote:
What’s with all the hate on anything even somewhat related to Mobile in your threads? I lived there a year and thought it was nice small city. Short drive to the gorgeous east shore area, nice beaches are close by, nice sized city, a good local university and college. It’s basically a smaller, clean family friendly version of New Orleans without all the murderers, whores, stench and filth.
Jealousy over having the first Mardi Gras.
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