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1
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:34 pm to slackster
What’s the difference between an ensemble and a model?
Explain it to me like I’m 5
And please don’t say the model WEARS the ensemble
Explain it to me like I’m 5
And please don’t say the model WEARS the ensemble
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:35 pm to LSURussian
quote:
If it makes you feel better about your earlier uninformed statement to resort to semantics, that's okay with me. But it makes you look a little childish.
Nothing semantic about it. The storm was never forecast to go 50 miles west of New Orleans. Posting a few images you clearly don't understand doesn't change that.
rds's post on page 13 has zero replies. I'd suggest asking for clarification when someone makes a post that makes your butt pucker.
That being said, yes, I know it makes me look more than a little childish to argue with you fools about this insignificant shite. I'll still happily oblige.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:36 pm to fightin tigers
quote:IOW, the path.
It is where computer modeling thinks it is going
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:36 pm to slackster
i wish people like this would troll a different thread. we have posters here trying to give information to people that are, or could be, affected by a storm and they show up to just get a reaction.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:36 pm to slackster
How do I post a short video on here? Water is rising at my parents in Slidell whose house is right on the lake.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:37 pm to slackster
quote:
You said 50 miles west of New Orleans and now it's supposed to go 150 miles east. That is and was false.
The 4am Sunday track, the black line, was right through St. Charles Parish.
Destrehan to Pascagoula is 112 miles as the crow flies.
This was a rather large shift but I guess its not over until we get a landfall.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:37 pm to LSURussian
quote:
IOW, the path.
Read note one next to the map
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:37 pm to slackster
quote:
slackster
Lol at you calling someone else an amateur in one of these threads.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:38 pm to VanRIch
quote:
Checking in from Abita, are we pretty much 100% in the clear?
I’m in Mandeville and I’m telling myself we are in the clear
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:38 pm to Mr. Hangover
TWC guy just said they could possibly downgrade this thing. He will be fired before 8pm.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:39 pm to jac1280
Water will keep rising there until the wind shifts.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:40 pm to JackieTreehorn
quote:
TWC guy just said they could possibly downgrade this thing.
Damn
Thats like somebody on CNN saying covid isnt that big a deal
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:40 pm to LaBR4
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:42 pm to jac1280
Yep,
see what the difference is in the AM compared to this evening
see what the difference is in the AM compared to this evening
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:42 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
What’s the difference between an ensemble and a model?
I believe (and I could be wrong) that ensembles are the various runs of different forecasts that are used to create each model.
So the EURO, GFS, etc have ensembles which are how they come up with their projections.
And I seem to be correct; I did some quick googling and found this:
quote:
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), previously known as the GFS Global ENSemble (GENS), is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members.
Source - NOAA page
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 7:43 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:43 pm to jac1280
Tweet that at Jim Cantore and invite him over. 
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:43 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
What’s the difference between an ensemble and a model?
Explain it to me like I’m 5
A global forecast model, or operational run as it is sometimes called with the GFS and Euro, is the computer's best estimate of what will happen. It takes as much real time data as possible, plugs it into the supercomputer, and spits it out a few hours later.
The ensemble members (21 for the GFS and 50 for the Euro) are attempts to capture a range of possible outcomes by tweaking the initial real time data that is being plugged into the computer. They tweak initial data points and then run through the system - similar to the butterfly effect basically. The idea is that the ensemble members, and the ensemble mean (average result of the ensembles for any given parameter), may offer a better range of possibilities than the individual operational run.
On a larger scale, think of the NHC forecast as the operational run and the GFS, Euro, HWRF, etc. models as ensemble members. The NHC is better than any individual component, but they use the results of all the components to help guide them.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:43 pm to fishfighter
Fishfighter’s pecans are the new sunflowers.
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