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Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:44 pm to IT_Dawg
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:44 pm to IT_Dawg
Told you she was stubborn. Dumbass Aunt is going back to her condo on the island outside Gulf Shores. Apparently the casino didn’t lock down her reservation and the only place to stay was some hotel called Oyo and she didn’t like it. Turned her phone off and driving back. What a dumbass.
1
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:44 pm to Jwho77
Can I say “Jim, not sure if we will make it out. Please give Slidell some air time”
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:45 pm to slackster
I’m in the LP- just got one of those annoying Hurricane Warning Alerts on my phone - WTF is going on. I’ve already unpacked.......lol
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:46 pm to jac1280
quote:
How do I post a short video on here? Water is rising at my parents in Slidell whose house is right on the lake.
My backyard in Eden isles right now
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:47 pm to AncientTiger
quote:
I’m in the LP- just got one of those annoying Hurricane Warning Alerts on my phone - WTF is going on
The Livingston Parish School Board had that sent out, they closed school tomorrow, best to at least send one or two of those tonight to sure up the decision.
LINK
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 7:48 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:47 pm to James11111
quote:
Lol at you calling someone else an amateur in one of these threads.
The debating skills are amateur level.
I've never claimed to be anything other than a weather hobbyist, so yes, it would be comical if I called someone else an amateur in that respect.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:47 pm to jac1280
And tell him, "A high tide raises all ratings."
He'll be there.
He'll be there.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:47 pm to LSURussian
quote:
There was a point in time over the weekend that some of the models showed the most likely path was west of New Orleans and coming very close to Baton Rouge. That's why I remembered the posts showing that possible path. They made my butt pucker seeing how similar the path near Baton Rouge was starting to look like Gustav.
But, as I said, if you think rds dc was just posting those graphics in order to confuse everyone, that's okay with me.
He posted those because they are a tool used to forecast a path, but you have to be careful with ensembles. The black line is the mean path, but that doesn't mean most likely path. The value in the ensembles is setting a spread of possibilities and to show some what if (stronger vs weaker gets teased out some for example).
It isn't just "different forecasts" but a lot of the members change assumptions made in the physics modeling, initial conditions, and convective schemes. So that middle line might tell you the average path, but you have to know what side the real outliers are and how the mean path is skewed.
They're really useful tools, but people shouldn't take the mean line as the "most likely".
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:49 pm to Jwho77
I sent it to him, but it’s not showing up. He must not have approved it for his page : ((
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:49 pm to AncientTiger
quote:
I’m in the LP- just got one of those annoying Hurricane Warning Alerts on my phone - WTF is going on. I’ve already unpacked.......lol
Thats the power of destroya and honor code trying to pull sally westwardly.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:49 pm to Duke
Beer isle in the publix in Spanish Fort is getting slim. Let’s go you bitch Sally.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:49 pm to jac1280
Keep posting updates. I know your neighbor.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:50 pm to jac1280
Just checked on my mom on Indian Village road. Water hasn't risen there yet
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:50 pm to tilco
quote:
Beer isle in the publix in Spanish Fort is getting slim. Let’s go you bitch Sally
Confirmed
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:50 pm to LazloHollyfeld
Will do 
My parents are older and I’m not there, so I was worried with that track yesterday morning.
My parents are older and I’m not there, so I was worried with that track yesterday morning.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:51 pm to bbrownso
quote:
I believe (and I could be wrong) that ensembles are the various runs of different forecasts that are used to create each model.
Not quite. The average of the 21 GEFS members is useful, but it's not the GFS. Same with the Euro ensemble members and the Euro operational run.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:54 pm to fishfighter
quote:Mobile is way better than it was. 30 years ago it had an empty downtown and little going on economically, which had been the case for decades. Now they have a great mayor, a booming port, and a vibrant CBD. And a shitty tunnel.
30 years ago, Memphis and Mobile were fair cities. Now, shite holes. About three steps below New Orleans.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:55 pm to lion
P'Cola talking shite about Mobile 
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:56 pm to slackster
Pretty sure the ensemble members are the “what-if” scenarios where they play around with potential factors of the storm making it stronger/weaker or changing steering. The operational model is supposed to be the most accurate using the most up to date data.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 7:56 pm to McGregor
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 7:57 pm
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