Report: Raising minimum wage nationwide to $15 would cost nearly 1.5 million jobs

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If enacted at the end of March 2021, the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 (S. 53, as introduced on January 26, 2021) would raise the federal minimum wage, in annual increments, to $15 per hour by June 2025 and then adjust it to increase at the same rate as median hourly wages. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill’s effects on the federal budget.

The cumulative budget deficit over the 2021–2031 period would increase by $54 billion.

Increases in annual deficits would be smaller before 2025, as the minimum-wage increases were being phased in, than in later years.

Higher prices for goods and services—stemming from the higher wages of workers paid at or near the minimum wage, such as those providing long-term health care—would contribute to increases in federal spending.

Changes in employment and in the distribution of income would increase spending for some programs (such as unemployment compensation), reduce spending for others (such as nutrition programs), and boost federal revenues (on net).

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