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people citing sweden’s high death rate compared to other Nordic nations just don’t get it
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:37 pm
Sweden’s approach is going to result in a steep rise upward and a steep fall downward
The date at which Sweden is going to hit 0 deaths/day will be earlier than the rest of the West.
The nations on lockdown will have much more gradual trends downward
When this is all done, I will be shocked if Sweden has more deaths per capita than the rest of Europe and Scandinavia.
Basically, lockdown nation will go weeks even months with persistent but declining deaths way after Sweden deaths stop. This will cause the death rates of all the Nordic nations to converge.
The date at which Sweden is going to hit 0 deaths/day will be earlier than the rest of the West.
The nations on lockdown will have much more gradual trends downward
When this is all done, I will be shocked if Sweden has more deaths per capita than the rest of Europe and Scandinavia.
Basically, lockdown nation will go weeks even months with persistent but declining deaths way after Sweden deaths stop. This will cause the death rates of all the Nordic nations to converge.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:38 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
I will be shocked if Sweden has more deaths per capita than the rest of Europe and Scandinavia.
Thanks Fauci
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:41 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
While statistically true, I find it funny that the same people who say we can't compare our health system to Swedens during conversations about nationalizing health care systems now are doing it to push a herd immunity approach here in America.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I still don't get the fascination with the Sweden situation. While their government didn't lock them down, they have for the most part been following the same guidelines we have been and probably doing a better job overall with social distancing.
Again, it hasn't been business as usual there.
Again, it hasn't been business as usual there.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:43 pm to Norbert
quote:
nationalizing health care systems
not going to happen.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
date at which Sweden is going to hit 0 deaths/day will be earlier than the rest of the West.
Why is this ever being discussed by anyone? People still die from rabies and bubonic plague. Zero deaths/day is never going to happen for covid. Its here for good.
The goal was to not overwhelm hospitals. We are not overwhelming hospitals. Let's get the frick back to work. Sweden did it right
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:57 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
only the narrative is important, the false and misleading data used to create the false narrative is inconsequential to the end goals
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:00 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The date at which Sweden is going to hit 0 deaths/day will be earlier than the rest of the West.
Just like a lot of other things with this whole mess, I am having trouble believing this "prediction".
I'm all for opening our country up now.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:07 pm to Norbert
quote:
I find it funny that the same people who say we can't compare our health system to Swedens during conversations about nationalizing health care systems now are doing it to push a herd immunity approach here in America.
I wish I could figure out how these two topics are related, but alas, I cannot.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:15 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I still don't get the fascination with the Sweden situation.
kids are in school
barbers, bars and restaurants are open
we should do that here
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:17 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Sweden’s approach is going to result in a steep rise upward and a steep fall downward
Peaking the tip if you will...
Folks forget or cannot understand that time is on the x axis...
The hidden variable if healthcare capacity. In reality that line is way off which further fricks these models. In Swedens case, the dotted line would be above the blue peak..
The area under both curves are the same
How many people understand that is the trick...
Muh, what does the person on the news tell me what to think...
Judging is easy
Thinking is hard
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:18 pm to dcbl
quote:
kids are in school
not HSers and college kids
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:20 pm to Salmon
The Swedes are following social restriction guidelines without compulsion.
They are superior to Americans.
They are superior to Americans.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:20 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Not to mention many countries in western Europe already have higher per capita death rates anyway
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:20 pm to notiger1997
quote:
While their government didn't lock them down, they have for the most part been following the same guidelines we have been and probably doing a better job overall with social distancing.
Not exactly. While they are taking common sense precautions they have accepted that the virus has to spread through the population, hopefully in a controlled fashion. They are trying to achieve herd immunity. We seem to think that we can isolate, control and eliminate the virus. I think this is a fantasy. Absent a vaccine, no one will get past this without herd immunity.
Edit: There is a good op-ed in this morning's WSJ on this very point.
I don't know how the death per million number will play out. But I predict that Sweden will be past this way before us. They will be having concerts and sporting events in the Fall.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:21 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You have easily been the most triggered by all this. I look forward to your threads every day.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:22 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
We seem to think that we can isolate, control and eliminate the virus.
literally no one of importance has said the goal is to eliminate the virus
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:23 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Sweden is awesome. I could "retire" to there or norway and have all of my metal needs met happily ever after..
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:24 pm to Salmon
I have no issue with Sweden's method. But they have different considerations than the U.S. Sweden's second-largest metro area is smaller than Baton Rouge.
Overwhelming the medical systems isn't as much of a concern as it is in U.S. urban areas.
Overwhelming the medical systems isn't as much of a concern as it is in U.S. urban areas.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:25 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Interesting question is whether their relapse in the fall is less severe than everyone else's.
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