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people citing sweden’s high death rate compared to other Nordic nations just don’t get it

Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:37 pm
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74734 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:37 pm
Sweden’s approach is going to result in a steep rise upward and a steep fall downward

The date at which Sweden is going to hit 0 deaths/day will be earlier than the rest of the West.

The nations on lockdown will have much more gradual trends downward

When this is all done, I will be shocked if Sweden has more deaths per capita than the rest of Europe and Scandinavia.

Basically, lockdown nation will go weeks even months with persistent but declining deaths way after Sweden deaths stop. This will cause the death rates of all the Nordic nations to converge.
Posted by ellishughtiger
70118
Member since Jul 2004
21182 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

I will be shocked if Sweden has more deaths per capita than the rest of Europe and Scandinavia.


Thanks Fauci
Posted by Norbert
Member since Oct 2018
3767 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:41 pm to
While statistically true, I find it funny that the same people who say we can't compare our health system to Swedens during conversations about nationalizing health care systems now are doing it to push a herd immunity approach here in America.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61810 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:43 pm to
I still don't get the fascination with the Sweden situation. While their government didn't lock them down, they have for the most part been following the same guidelines we have been and probably doing a better job overall with social distancing.

Again, it hasn't been business as usual there.
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
75980 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

nationalizing health care systems


not going to happen.
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
72902 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

date at which Sweden is going to hit 0 deaths/day will be earlier than the rest of the West.


Why is this ever being discussed by anyone? People still die from rabies and bubonic plague. Zero deaths/day is never going to happen for covid. Its here for good.

The goal was to not overwhelm hospitals. We are not overwhelming hospitals. Let's get the frick back to work. Sweden did it right
Posted by keakar
Member since Jan 2017
30152 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:57 pm to
only the narrative is important, the false and misleading data used to create the false narrative is inconsequential to the end goals
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61810 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:00 pm to
quote:

The date at which Sweden is going to hit 0 deaths/day will be earlier than the rest of the West.


Just like a lot of other things with this whole mess, I am having trouble believing this "prediction".

I'm all for opening our country up now.
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
41007 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

I find it funny that the same people who say we can't compare our health system to Swedens during conversations about nationalizing health care systems now are doing it to push a herd immunity approach here in America.



I wish I could figure out how these two topics are related, but alas, I cannot.
Posted by dcbl
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
32393 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

I still don't get the fascination with the Sweden situation.

kids are in school

barbers, bars and restaurants are open

we should do that here
Posted by ThinePreparedAni
In a sea of cognitive dissonance
Member since Mar 2013
11315 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

Sweden’s approach is going to result in a steep rise upward and a steep fall downward


Peaking the tip if you will...

Folks forget or cannot understand that time is on the x axis...



The hidden variable if healthcare capacity. In reality that line is way off which further fricks these models. In Swedens case, the dotted line would be above the blue peak..

The area under both curves are the same

How many people understand that is the trick...
Muh, what does the person on the news tell me what to think...

Judging is easy
Thinking is hard
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
86738 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

kids are in school


not HSers and college kids
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49580 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:20 pm to
The Swedes are following social restriction guidelines without compulsion.

They are superior to Americans.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
175706 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:20 pm to
Not to mention many countries in western Europe already have higher per capita death rates anyway
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
14343 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

While their government didn't lock them down, they have for the most part been following the same guidelines we have been and probably doing a better job overall with social distancing.


Not exactly. While they are taking common sense precautions they have accepted that the virus has to spread through the population, hopefully in a controlled fashion. They are trying to achieve herd immunity. We seem to think that we can isolate, control and eliminate the virus. I think this is a fantasy. Absent a vaccine, no one will get past this without herd immunity.

Edit: There is a good op-ed in this morning's WSJ on this very point.

I don't know how the death per million number will play out. But I predict that Sweden will be past this way before us. They will be having concerts and sporting events in the Fall.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 1:22 pm
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
69588 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:21 pm to
You have easily been the most triggered by all this. I look forward to your threads every day.
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
86738 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

We seem to think that we can isolate, control and eliminate the virus.


literally no one of importance has said the goal is to eliminate the virus
Posted by SEClint
New Orleans, LA/Portland, OR
Member since Nov 2006
49487 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:23 pm to
Sweden is awesome. I could "retire" to there or norway and have all of my metal needs met happily ever after..
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49580 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:24 pm to
I have no issue with Sweden's method. But they have different considerations than the U.S. Sweden's second-largest metro area is smaller than Baton Rouge.

Overwhelming the medical systems isn't as much of a concern as it is in U.S. urban areas.
Posted by uway
Member since Sep 2004
33109 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:25 pm to
Interesting question is whether their relapse in the fall is less severe than everyone else's.
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