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Started By
Message
re: Oil back below $40
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:45 pm to Asgard Device
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:45 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
Do you really think that lowering the prices of raw materials is bad for manufacturing? Think.
Theoretically of course but we've seen very little uptick in manufacturing within America.. Globally, there are so many countries in despair that we aren't seeing the benefits.. Do you not find it odd that we aren't seeing the benefits outside relatively lower gas prices.. I'm in no way advocating for 100 a barrel but 20 a barrel isn't something I see as beneficial either..
0
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:33 am to Asgard Device
quote:
Only demand is relevant. If we find cheaper ways to produce energy then that doesn't signal anything negative. Do you want energy prices to be high just so you can have "signals"? frick.
No, I don't want anything done artificially. My point was that there are two issues with oil at these levels. The first was basically the answer of why we're here - some on the fault of producers, but more importantly a slowing or underperforming global economy. The second was that the traditional silver lining of cheap energy has not materialized in the discretionary spending of Americans.
I'm not exactly taking a "pro-energy" stance. These things have been said by quite a few experts as well.
We don't need oil to be higher for shits and giggles, but if oil is significantly higher in the next year or so, it likely means good things for the US/global economy. Sort of like interest rates.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 12:40 am to slackster
quote:
The second was that the traditional silver lining of cheap energy has not materialized in the discretionary spending of Americans.
How do you know? What makes you think that if oil prices were higher that they wouldn't have even less discretionary spending?
quote:
oil is significantly higher in the next year or so, it likely means good things for the US/global economy. Sort of like interest rates.
Oil was cheap during the largest economic expansion of my lifetime (the 1990's).
Posted on 8/2/16 at 5:49 am to rocket31
quote:
oh you southerners and your small minds, so cute
Yes small minds.... Just like Bloomberg and NBC and the Washington Post
All noted small minded southern publications. I can easily go find more.... The traditional view is that low oil prices are good for the economy. For one reason or another, that trend appears to not be correct in this decline.
There are multiple theories as to why, but this isn't a small minded southern view.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 5:52 am to cave canem
It's $250K per depositor, per bank now. Anyway, I've looked somewhat at percentage of O&G loans, and I'm curious which banks you think are going under due to these troubled loans?
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:11 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
It's $250K per depositor, per bank now
You guys obvs. know a LOT more about this stuff than I, but check something for me.
I heard that if you have any MORE than that you are an UN-secured creditor? Is that correct?
Thanks.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:33 am to LCA131
I am going to throw a party when it reaches $100 again. Looks like it won't be any time soon but it will happen again at some point. Just have to weather the storm for now.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:41 am to GeorgeTheGreek
May I ask what industry you work in
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:46 am to Iowa Golfer
Does your analysis forsee SA becoming irrelevant again?
Because that would be awesome.
Because that would be awesome.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:50 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I think depressed oil makes frackers more efficient. Then if we went to 90-100, we frack. Actually, we frack at 35 and lower. And probably someplace between 70-85 would be a good price point for brent, wti slightly lower.
Fracking accounts for 65% of the cost of a non conventional well. Just to put it into perspective the break even on a high tech ERD offshore well here where I am is $19 per BBL. Average production rate is 6500 bbls per day with no need to frack. U.S. shale plays can't compete with these markets at current prices when they have a break even around $60 per BBL and flow less than 1000 bbl per day.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:53 am to TitleistProV1X
I throw a party every time it goes under $40. I have been partying hard lately.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 6:57 am to CorporateTiger
quote:
mean yes Russia getting fricked was certainly nice, but the real draw is bankrupting American companies. Even if you bleed Gazprom for years, the Dussian government will keep them afloat and production will come back when prices rise.
On the other hand if you bankrupt 35-60% of American independents (and I've heard bankruptcy rates hitting 75% in some of the doomsday projections) then even when prices rebound the industry won't be able re-ramp up production for months or years.
The independents are holding on tooth and nail though.
This guy gets it. My company is exporting drilling equipment like crazy into Russia.
This post was edited on 8/2/16 at 8:20 am
Posted on 8/2/16 at 7:11 am to LSUtoOmaha
Said it a million times, it's all about dat renewable energy baws.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:00 am to Iowa Golfer
Every adult in the USA should be aware of the limits and it is not as simple as $ 250,000, that is per account/owner as you should know and multiple accounts owners, trust etc are treated differently.
As far as to which particular banks Hancock/Whitney and Mid-South would be two of the biggest locals to be concerned with IMHO. Not only is a very large percentage of their loans directly tied to oil/gas an unbelievable percentage of their normal business is indirectly tied in due to loan holders being employed in the industry.
We shall see what will happen fairly soon if prices continue to sink as most in the know seem to believe is inevitable.
As far as to which particular banks Hancock/Whitney and Mid-South would be two of the biggest locals to be concerned with IMHO. Not only is a very large percentage of their loans directly tied to oil/gas an unbelievable percentage of their normal business is indirectly tied in due to loan holders being employed in the industry.
We shall see what will happen fairly soon if prices continue to sink as most in the know seem to believe is inevitable.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:01 am to Asgard Device
quote:
How do you know? What makes you think that if oil prices were higher that they wouldn't have even less discretionary spending?
Sigh. This isn't slackster's opinion on Tigerdroppings. This is being brought up by multiple economists. People have posted multiple articles in this very thread.
quote:
Oil was cheap during the largest economic expansion of my lifetime (the 1990's).
And the last time oil was this cheap was the "Great Recession." Look, it's not so much that cheap oil = bad for the economy, it's more that cheap oil is a symptom of a struggling economy, at least over the last 15 years. The fact that it is so cheap is because production has outstripped consumption since late 2013. That gap is closing, but you want it to close for organic reasons like an increase in demand, not artificial reasons like restricting supply.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:02 am to ksayetiger
quote:well, you're blind. Oil prices fell through the bottom and gas went down. When oil is high, gas prices rise.
Gas prices have little to do with oil prices
frick off with that oil rig, my wife has a Jody, bullshite.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:04 am to cave canem
I'll check pricing on Leap puts and post later today. Seems to me if your speculation is close to accurate, and I have no reason to believe it isn't a logical guess, any low priced Leap would be a good way to take a speculative short without risking much capital and having a loss certain.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:35 am to Iowa Golfer
Per Houston Chronicle on 4/18/16 US job cuts reached 118K.
LINK
Per Goldman estimate in July, 170K jobs have now been lost.
LINK
Per Goldman estimate in July, 170K jobs have now been lost.
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:45 am to ksayetiger
quote:
Gas prices have little to do with oil prices
People outside of the upstream/downstream side of O&G must be the ones who downvoted this statement...
Posted on 8/2/16 at 8:46 am to chauncey1
Thank you, get your shite straight Corporate, however I did miss type, 36K+ is for SLB world wide.
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