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re: Oil back below $40
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:34 pm to Asgard Device
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:34 pm to Asgard Device
Also, it is important to remember that oil extraction and refining are two different sectors. O&G extraction has lost 20k to 40k jobs tops domestically tops. You could pay every one of those people $150k a year with only a 4 cent tax on gas. Why pay 60 cents more just to prop those jobs up?
Meanwhile, refining actually can still continue and can actually THRIVE with cheap oil. Think about it, you just lowered the price of their raw materials.
America can focus on refining and all the innovations associated with that (oil makes a whole lot more than gas). See: Lake Charles..
Meanwhile, refining actually can still continue and can actually THRIVE with cheap oil. Think about it, you just lowered the price of their raw materials.
America can focus on refining and all the innovations associated with that (oil makes a whole lot more than gas). See: Lake Charles..
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 9:43 pm
3
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:37 pm to thegreatboudini
Not to mention the large number of shale deposits in foreign countries. I wouldn't be stressed about peak oil at all. Renewables are far enough along we should be able to replace our energy needs by then. That should reduce demand far enough for the petrochemicals businesses go on for a long arse time too.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:41 pm to CorporateTiger
Their assets will get purchased. I don't see this working when we have integrated producers profitable in the 20's, and a few frackers making money in the 30's.
We'll be fine. He'll, even my Nigerian oil play breaks even at 40.
But I guess how long is the unanswered question. How long at sub 50? 50 seems to be about as good of a number as any.
So anyone not cash flowing at 50 gets their assets purchased.
It needs to happen, and hopefully with no bail out.
We'd have been so much better off with no bail outs, and a short, sharp depression.
Some friend of mine always said these things need to happen occasionally. Clears out the bad blood.
We'll be fine. He'll, even my Nigerian oil play breaks even at 40.
But I guess how long is the unanswered question. How long at sub 50? 50 seems to be about as good of a number as any.
So anyone not cash flowing at 50 gets their assets purchased.
It needs to happen, and hopefully with no bail out.
We'd have been so much better off with no bail outs, and a short, sharp depression.
Some friend of mine always said these things need to happen occasionally. Clears out the bad blood.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:46 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
O&G extraction has lost 20k to 40k jobs tops domestically tops.
Schlumberger has gotten rid of that many people by themselves. It's way higher than that Baw.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
I mean the assets will definitely be sold off and held by another company, but the issue is that the combined results of those sales tend to not react as quickly as each one independently.
10 companies each adding one rig is much more dramatic than than 3 companies each adding two rigs.
I don't think you would ever see a bailout for the O&G industry.
10 companies each adding one rig is much more dramatic than than 3 companies each adding two rigs.
I don't think you would ever see a bailout for the O&G industry.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:51 pm to Asgard Device
Try over 100k, shite we're at 36k and still cutting.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:04 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Try over 100k just in NA, shite we're at 36k and still cutting.
The O&G extraction industry employed 200k people in the PEAK of flooding the markets with oil.
Currently 172k are still employed in O&G, which is about average for the past decade.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
O&G extraction in the US really over-extended itself, but don't let facts get in the way of your industry's narrative!
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:19 pm to GREENHEAD22
SLB Globally cut 36k jobs
Not just in NAM
Not just in NAM
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:21 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Obligatory "oilfield baws will b selling their 250's with the truck nuts"
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:27 pm to 3deadtrolls
quote:
Schlumberger has gotten rid of that many people by themselves. It's way higher than that Baw.
We're talking about in America. Schlumberger has laid off 36,000 workers worldwide. They're an international company, bro and they're hiring. They're also outsourcing and there has been evidence that they're shifting to hiring more people as contractors.
Schlauberger also provides engineering and fabrication services for more than just the extraction side of things, so I suppose a lot of those white collar jobs can go without being categorized as such but we're not talking about 10's of thousands of people in the US working support roles (administrative, hr, it, legal, accounting, etc) in offices for Schlum that got laid off.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 10:59 pm to patnuh
Go slither back under your rock
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:05 pm to Jim Rockford
Keep on dropping baby!!
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:08 pm to Jim Rockford
Time to buy?
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:12 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
LOL, Jesus Christ, people. We have saved 10x more at the pump than would ever have been spent on wages.
Which somehow hasn't been shown within the economy or our stagnant wage base.. Low energy usually benefits through increased manufacturing and increased infrastructure projects.. But since we haven't kept up manufacturing vs population growth due to global pressures and have no money to spend on infrastructure, we are left with cheaper gas that doesn't show much tangible benefit to the economy..
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:16 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:15 pm to TROLA
quote:
Which somehow hasn't been shown within the economy or are stagnant wage base.. Low energy usually benefits through increased manufacturing and increased infrastructure projects.. But since we haven't kept up manufacturing vs population growth due to global pressures and have no money to spend on infrastructure, we are left with cheaper gas that doesn't show much tangible benefit to the economy..
The price of energy isn't the only factor in the economy. Maybe it would have been worse. The world is far too fluid to try and compare then to now.
If oil was suddenly 2x harder to extract out of the ground and thus was more labor intensive and more people were employed, would we really be that much better off? Why not break every window in America? The industry would be booming. The raw materials that are used to make glass are commodities as well. There's no evidence that keeping our windows helped the economy.
The economic principle of comparative advantage is one that is pretty universal.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:22 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:25 pm to Asgard Device
Objectively.. We have flexed trillions into our economy.. We've had a major retraction in oil and somehow we can't get wages moving and the economy steaming..
All I'm saying is that the lower oil prices aren't necessarily good for growth in today's America.. Oil and it's by-products are a major producer and manufacturing tool with this country.. the amount of jobs outside the direct oil sector that rely on its health are staggering and its one of the dying bastions of blue collar wealth..
All I'm saying is that the lower oil prices aren't necessarily good for growth in today's America.. Oil and it's by-products are a major producer and manufacturing tool with this country.. the amount of jobs outside the direct oil sector that rely on its health are staggering and its one of the dying bastions of blue collar wealth..
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:27 pm to TROLA
quote:
All I'm saying is that the lower oil prices aren't necessarily good for growth in today's America.
oh you southerners and your small minds, so cute
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:28 pm to TROLA
quote:
All I'm saying is that the lower oil prices aren't necessarily good for growth in today's America.. Oil and it's by-products are a major producer and manufacturing tool with this country..
Low oil prices only helps make refining it more viable.
Do you really think that lowering the prices of raw materials is bad for manufacturing? Think.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:29 pm to rocket31
quote:
quote:
All I'm saying is that the lower oil prices aren't necessarily good for growth in today's America.
oh you southerners and your small minds, so cute
What's the GDP growth rate been like recently? How about wages? How about the gap between the top and bottom?
ETA: my company has no direct involvement in oil.. In theory, I should do better with cheaper oil in some aspects of my business.. Unfortunately, I also have business in areas that oil plays out in the overall economy..
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 11:33 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 11:40 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
The price of energy isn't the only factor in the economy. Maybe it would have been worse. The world is far too fluid to try and compare then to now.
It is far more complicated than both this and your earlier comment on savings vs wages
There was an emerging manufacturing sector that used almost all US raw materials and that was oilfield manufacturing/supply and was one of the few areas we were exporting massive quantities worldwide.
Not so much use for drill pipe and pump liners right now for example and these are produced from US raw materials, turned into steel in a us mill and forged/stamped/rolled/welded in US facilities far from what one would consider the oilfield.
Many a machine shop across the South East was humming along making subs/crossovers etc. Dealerships not selling all the work trucks etc.
This runs a lot deeper than saving .60 at the pump vs a few lost wages.
The banking fiasco looming on the horizon from this is what should have folks more worried than t-boy's current employment situation. Many a bad loan is about to rear it's head if prices stay so low the debt can't be serviced. All those small community banks that thought they would just be able to print money by loaning it out in the oil patch are about to learn a painful lesson.
I have posted the following before and will here again.
I would not be holding one cent over FDIC guaranteed level in ANY bank in the Gulf South right now.
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