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Started By
Message
re: Oil back below $40
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:02 pm to CorporateTiger
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:02 pm to CorporateTiger
quote:
What shite? The free market?
It is not a free market when it is being manipulated by foreign states. The saudi's are trying to bankrupt American companies by flooding the market with their reserves. How is this OK?
6
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:02 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
LOL, Jesus Christ, people. We have saved 10x more at the pump than would ever have been spent on wages.
Get your broken window fallacy out of here and get on board comparative advantage.
His view isn't fallacious. There is a "happy medium" argument out there and I tend to agree with it.
LINK
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 9:02 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:05 pm to patnuh
How is it not okay, it's economics 101. They want market share and produce cheaper than anyone. Really it's the only play the Saudis have.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 9:08 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:05 pm to lsumatt
quote:Grats on the engagement!
lsumatt
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:11 pm to OweO
I think depressed oil makes frackers more efficient. Then if we went to 90-100, we frack. Actually, we frack at 35 and lower. And probably someplace between 70-85 would be a good price point for brent, wti slightly lower.
Strange pricing relationship between brent and wti for the last year.
Anyway, rig count has accelerated, and supply, although this is tough to measure in oil, has increased.
There will be another opportunity for profit if one is patient enough.
It's been relatively predictable. Although I hate saying that. But I'm watching for another entry point, and it will not be until at least 30.
OPEC in our lifetimes will be obsolete. My prediction. It will likely change the geopolitical landscape. And in a fairly significant way is my guess.
Strange pricing relationship between brent and wti for the last year.
Anyway, rig count has accelerated, and supply, although this is tough to measure in oil, has increased.
There will be another opportunity for profit if one is patient enough.
It's been relatively predictable. Although I hate saying that. But I'm watching for another entry point, and it will not be until at least 30.
OPEC in our lifetimes will be obsolete. My prediction. It will likely change the geopolitical landscape. And in a fairly significant way is my guess.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:13 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
LOL, Jesus Christ, people. We have saved 10x more at the pump than would ever have been spent on wages.
Get your broken window fallacy out of here and get on board comparative advantage.
You can believe what you want, but cheap oil has problems for two reasons. Problem 1 is because of what it signals from a global growth and consumption standpoint. Problem 2 is that the savings at the pump used to be considered a boon for discretionary spending, but that hasn't actually happened to any great extent. That additional savings may be good for your pocket book, but for the overall economy, they're not ideal.
This isn't some Louisiana-centric opinion. Analyst were saying as much earlier this year.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:13 pm to patnuh
quote:
It is not a free market when it is being manipulated by foreign states.
You mean a company with a YUGE market share? In fact the drop in oil prices are due to them stopping the manipulation. They shite in production for years to push the price up.
quote:
The saudi's are trying to bankrupt American companies by flooding the market with their reserves. How is this OK?
You do realize that attempting to drive your competitors out of business (and therefore seize their business) is the ultimate goal of a perfectly free market right?
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:14 pm to lsugradman
quote:
The lower the price of oil the more we will be importing from the Middle East. If you want American energy independence it comes at a price...and that price is north of $60 / bbl.
American energy independence? WTF are you talking about? what about American electronics independence? How about American steel independence? Do we not need any thing else other than oil?
Do you not think about the things you repeat? What is the value of "energy independence"? In case of war? If that's the case, wouldn't you want to stockpile our energy and let other countries burn through theirs??
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:16 pm to patnuh
quote:
It is not a free market when it is being manipulated by foreign states. The saudi's are trying to bankrupt American companies by flooding the market with their reserves. How is this OK?
What? American companies flooded the market with shale oil. We caused this shite 100%. You're clueless if you think Saudi's caused this. They have the power to reverse this by tightening their valve, but their output has been steady to their plan for years now and won't change.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:16 pm to Iowa Golfer
OPEC is effectively non-functional already. Nearly every country in OPEC except SA would love to drop production and move prices back to $80 or $90. The most acute example being Venezuela.
The name may last a bit longer, but OPEC as a unified entity is gone.
The name may last a bit longer, but OPEC as a unified entity is gone.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:18 pm to CorporateTiger
If there was anyone being driven out, it was Russia. OPEC has let it leak where they need to be in order to be profitable. Our producers here have as well depending on how you interpret all in costs.
The Saudis wouldn't do what they did to drive an American fracker out of business. Even Iran was disciplines in their oil sales.
No way to prove or disprove any political agenda, but if there was an agenda, it wasn't directed towards America, it was directed towards Russia.
The Saudis wouldn't do what they did to drive an American fracker out of business. Even Iran was disciplines in their oil sales.
No way to prove or disprove any political agenda, but if there was an agenda, it wasn't directed towards America, it was directed towards Russia.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:19 pm to Asgard Device
The concept of energy independence is rooted in the military. Countries that could supply their own oil (or before that coal) had less risk of supply faltering in a war. That is less of an issue now, but the thinking remains.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:20 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
But, oil and gas are cheap this very minute, so peak oil must be a myth.
Not a myth, but we haven't sniffed it. With current recovery factors being 15-25% and companies investing lots of money on recompletion technology that will eventually get us to recovery factors at 40-60%, we won't see peak oil in our lifetimes.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:23 pm to slackster
quote:
You can believe what you want, but cheap oil has problems for two reasons. Problem 1 is because of what it signals from a global growth and consumption standpoint
Only demand is relevant. If we find cheaper ways to produce energy then that doesn't signal anything negative. Do you want energy prices to be high just so you can have "signals"? frick.
quote:
Problem 2 is that the savings at the pump used to be considered a boon for discretionary spending,
Wow, okay. So you believe that everyone is setting the extra $40 to $200 a month on fire and that it'd be better spent on paying above market rates for commodities? Do you feel the same way about beef, chicken, lithium, iron, steel, etc?
If what you are saying is true then we could impose a $0.60 cents a gallon surcharge on all gas and redistribute it to every O&G baw out there. That's only around $1000 a year for your typical family of 4 and could support paying 336,000 baws $250k/yr. That's more than have ever been employed in the O&G industry even at peak times.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:23 pm to colorchangintiger
quote:
Upvotes/downvotes tell the story.
Holy shite it does.
This post was edited on 8/1/16 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:25 pm to ksayetiger
quote:
Gas prices have little to do with oil prices
Are you stupid?
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:29 pm to patnuh
quote:
it is being manipulated by foreign states. The saudi's are trying to bankrupt American companies by flooding the market with their reserves. How is this OK?
Its crazy how manipulated people are on this topic. The Saudis never ramped production up. Saudi production is within 7% of what it was 2 and 5 years ago. The Saudis used to produce more oil in the 70's than they do now.
Meanwhile, it was actually the AMERICANS that flooded the markets with oil.
You believe that the Saudis are manipulating the markets by NOT pulling back on production? Funny how people have it backwards.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:30 pm to ksayetiger
quote:
ksayetiger
Do you realize that when oil prices go up so does the cost of gas and vice versa. Its like saying, the cost of a cow doesn't affect the price of a steak.
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:32 pm to jlu03
quote:
And once we move into the winter blend then gas prices fall further
FYI... I work for a major producer.
Is the fact we are in an election year play a factor as well?
Posted on 8/1/16 at 9:33 pm to Iowa Golfer
I mean yes Russia getting fricked was certainly nice, but the real draw is bankrupting American companies. Even if you bleed Gazprom for years, the Dussian government will keep them afloat and production will come back when prices rise.
On the other hand if you bankrupt 35-60% of American independents (and I've heard bankruptcy rates hitting 75% in some of the doomsday projections) then even when prices rebound the industry won't be able re-ramp up production for months or years.
The independents are holding on tooth and nail though.
On the other hand if you bankrupt 35-60% of American independents (and I've heard bankruptcy rates hitting 75% in some of the doomsday projections) then even when prices rebound the industry won't be able re-ramp up production for months or years.
The independents are holding on tooth and nail though.
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