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re: New thread started for Beryl
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:17 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:17 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Only one thing is important here. That's whatever Levi Cowan says. 
0
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:27 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
heat dome
I hate how this is used for any summer high pressure system.
Just like winter cold front became bomb cyclone
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:29 pm to Duke
quote:
Energy incoming is the same but what is leaving as IR at night isnt as much as it used to be bc of the greenhouses gases. Hence one expectation is lows at night being higher, more so than even pushing record highs during the day.
It needs to hurry up because my water temps on the farm are barely 80 degrees and my fish aren’t growing because it’s not hot enough to really push feed without making them sick
Come on 95+ degrees
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:41 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Anyone got an opinion on Gary lezak?
Never heard of him until now. He's offering six month forecasts and touting his machine learning model as having "nailed" the potential for a tropical system in the first two weeks of June, or what is better known as......the beginning of hurricane season.
He's pimping it hard and has a decent following. I imagine if that squirrel finds a nut that following will grow and you'll see his stuff all over Facebook later this season.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:54 pm to deltaland
Gotta get dem clicks bruh
Posted on 6/5/24 at 10:13 pm to LegendInMyMind
I don’t buy it. Stormcast worships his forecast, last year he got one storm right and people took off with it like it was the gospel. There’s no way people can use his forecast and say it’s 100% accurate.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 10:14 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Election year will bring some additional drama to any weather event
I would pay to watch Biden help rescue people on a ride-along with the Cajun navy.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 11:47 pm to rds dc
[/url][/img] GFS 00z back to its early season shenanigans. Strictly a messy wet few days for the Florida and central gulf coasts if it would verify.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 6:07 am to SWLA92
quote:
GFS 00z back to its early season shenanigans. Strictly a messy wet few days for the Florida and central gulf coasts if it would verify.
Still waiting on the last few frames of 06z GFS, but it looks like it maybe goner or a big rain event headed to Florida.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 6:32 am to ABucks11
quote:
My wife just doubled her pumping
Posted on 6/6/24 at 6:41 am to Tarps99
quote:
a big rain event headed to Florida.
Please make this happen. This dry-spell is killing us.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 6:53 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
heat dome out west bringing unusual heat caused by fossil fuel
Scary just reading those words. Just five short years ago no one ever heard of a heat dome, a bomb cyclone, an atmospheric river; hurricanes and cyclones were predictable and didn't grow to gargantuan dimensions.
My newly minted Leaf is doing yeoman service in trying to keep these heat domes from devouring the American landscape.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:30 am to Tarps99
quote:
Still waiting on the last few frames of 06z GFS, but it looks like it maybe goner or a big rain event headed to Florida.
Nothing on regular euro or gfs
AI euro been showing storm in 2 weeks hitting somewhere along western gulf coast
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:39 am to tarzana
quote:Quit trolling. You know better.
Scary just reading those words. Just five short years ago no one ever heard of a heat dome, a bomb cyclone, an atmospheric river; hurricanes and cyclones were predictable and didn't grow to gargantuan dimensions
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:51 am to Duke
quote:
quote:
The early predictions last year were apocalyptic cane season for 23.
The frick they were.
El Nino was on. Most preseason forecasts were average to slightly below. The bold forecasts when slightly above and were correct but to say the forecast was for an aggressive season last year is plainly false.
The forecasts for a very active season this year are based on low shear with a La Nina and historically (based on our records) high Atlantic sea surface temps.
This is correct, and most that predicted near normal activity highlighted that was a below normal confidence forecast given El Nino (Climo strongly argued against normal activity, but above normal SSTs did give some reason to believe above climo was in the cards).
For this season, it has been well documented that conditions are primed for an active or hyperactive season. However, there are still wildcards that could hold things in check or prevent storms from making landfall on the US. An active EPAC could suppress activity in the Gulf, steering patterns could push most storms out to sea keeping impacts away from the US, or the high latitudes could dump a bunch of TUTTs into the Atlantic.
The only thing we know for sure is that there are no guarantees in long range forecasting
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:52 am to tarzana
quote:
Just five short years ago no one ever heard of a heat dome, a bomb cyclone, an atmospheric river
That's because they were made up for effect and to push an agenda.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 7:57 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
AI euro been showing storm in 2 weeks hitting somewhere along western gulf coast
Must be a new model the doomcasters are using to hype up their YouTube stream counts.
How did AI come to that conclusion? Was it monitoring the entails of Central American pigs, or the tried and true use a blind fold and throw a dart at a map?
Someone should invent a weather dice set. One die has a bunch of weather types and another has a bunch of days in advance. You roll it and monitor its success for comedic relief.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 8:13 am to tarzana
quote:
Just five short years ago no one ever heard of a heat dome, a bomb cyclone, an atmospheric river;
Because they made the terms up for fear porn. Heat dome- high pressure system
Bomb cyclone- cold front
Atmospheric River - monsoon
Posted on 6/6/24 at 8:28 am to tarzana
quote:
Just five short years ago no one ever heard of a heat dome, a bomb cyclone, an atmospheric river;
Uh, speak for yourself homie.
quote:
hurricanes and cyclones were predictable and didn't grow to gargantuan dimensions.
We've never been better than today at predicting them and the record for strongest and largest storm was a typhoon in the late 70s.
And dude, I actually understand climate change is happening and whats causing it but just because the media found some jargon mets have used for years doesnt mean its bc "climate change".
Posted on 6/6/24 at 9:02 am to rds dc
quote:
The only thing we know for sure is that there are no guarantees in long range forecasting
We do know that they will issue new forecasts in August. Will they change their thinking? No one knows, but the generally make adjustments to fit what is going on at the time.
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