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Posted on 6/5/24 at 8:52 am to rds dc
I’d like to take this opportunity to post my annual reminder to the board that my hurricane thread posts are 100% amateur opinions, regardless of how much HoldThatTiger10 mistakes them to be expert opinions.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 8:52 am to James11111
quote:
NOAAs forecast of a historically active season
Have they ever not forecasted a historically active season?
Posted on 6/5/24 at 8:56 am to Indefatigable
quote:
Have they ever not forecasted a historically active season?
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:08 am to Dire Wolf
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:11 am to TDsngumbo
I really need to quit looking at the long range past like mid-May
Peaked at it yesterday, showed next Tuesday high 79/low 61 then 3 days of comfortable mid 80s/mid 60s
Now its like 90/72 chance of rain
Mama mia
Peaked at it yesterday, showed next Tuesday high 79/low 61 then 3 days of comfortable mid 80s/mid 60s
Now its like 90/72 chance of rain
Mama mia
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:13 am to James11111
quote:
They then went on to explain that the high ocean temperatures are the result of climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Is this true?
Only white American conservative people. Anything fuels used by anyone else is negligible
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:14 am to Dire Wolf
When did they edit the 2023 season? The early predictions last year were apocalyptic cane season for 23.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:24 am to PureBlood
quote:
The early predictions last year were apocalyptic cane season for 23.
The frick they were.
El Nino was on. Most preseason forecasts were average to slightly below. The bold forecasts when slightly above and were correct but to say the forecast was for an aggressive season last year is plainly false.
The forecasts for a very active season this year are based on low shear with a La Nina and historically (based on our records) high Atlantic sea surface temps.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:29 am to S
quote:
Peaked at it yesterday, showed next Tuesday high 79/low 61 then 3 days of comfortable mid 80s/mid 60s
Now its like 90/72 chance of rain
Mama mia
only because they use the gfs and its crazy run to run
Euro still showing cool front
Not 79/61 cool in south LA but more comfortable at least
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:33 am to Duke
I believe this thinking to be spot on. Is gonna be a bumpy ride; unfortunately
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:36 am to rds dc
I'm in England. Am I safe?
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:37 am to bleuman
I just know this is going to turn and hit Biloxi
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:43 am to bleuman
quote:
I'm in England. Am I safe?
As long as you stay out of the Muslim "no-go" zones.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:44 am to wfallstiger
quote:
Is gonna be a bumpy ride; unfortunately
Probably. Im as certain as ive ever been the season will feature a lot of hurricanes.
That doesnt necessarily mean landfalls in the US, but the implication from the long range modeling is a lot of activity in the Caribbean. Which, lol, aint what we want to see.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:46 am to Duke
F
M
L
M
L
Posted on 6/5/24 at 9:46 am to Tarps99
quote:
GFS Next Sunday 6/15 - In the way too early department:
This is right where you want to be 10 days out.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 10:07 am to Duke
quote:
El Nino was on. Most preseason forecasts were average to slightly below. The bold forecasts when slightly above and were correct but to say the forecast was for an aggressive season last year is plainly false.
Every week there was going to be a catastrophic hurricane the next week. Weather weenies were obsessed with sea surface temps forgetting they're only one small piece of a much larger puzzle.
Posted on 6/5/24 at 10:11 am to rds dc
Will there be sharks in the streets of punta cana?
Posted on 6/5/24 at 11:04 am to The Boat
quote:
Every week there was going to be a catastrophic hurricane the next week. Weather weenies were obsessed with sea surface temps forgetting they're only one small piece of a much larger puzzle.
That began to really ramp up when forecasts started getting bumped up once we were into the season. Some forecasters took some gambles with their updated forecasts that centered mainly on SSTs. I guess they ended up doing okay with the overall number of storms, but the ceiling they all expected didn't really materialize. I remember thinking that after the collective bust of 2020 that some of those people/groups couldn't afford another bust.
Once those bumps happened, the hype train on every single cloud was wide open.
This post was edited on 6/5/24 at 2:19 pm
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