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re: Nate silver says something amazing and hopeful is happening in jefferson/orleans parish
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:25 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:25 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
The Jefferson Parish teachers won't like this one bit.
0
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:25 pm to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
you sure about that? Mask use is basically 99% in New Orleans grocery stores Doubt it’s that high in Livingston or Washington parish
I’m pretty sure. It’s consistent across all areas. Look at New York. They didn’t even spike one bit during all the protests. You think that has something to do with masks?
Look I wear a mask, I think they do make a difference. I think the difference is small compared to other factors at play.
This post was edited on 8/10/20 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:25 pm to GreatLakesTiger24
You clearly have been to the ghetto to shop
Posted on 8/11/20 at 6:14 am to Lima Whiskey
Our resident despot King Honor Code has already shown his eagerness to move swiftly to punish those who dare defy him. Witness the harassment and threats against a brave BBQ owner. He will not hesitate to use threats and shows of force against any uprising. It’s in his DNA, he wants to make sure he screws over small businesses now like he did big businesses in his first term. Make it clear that he and his shyster buddies are running the show and you’d best not forget that.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 6:38 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Great news for New Orleans.
I think the 20% herd immunity + whatever innate T cell function is in the population + our behavioral changes are proving to be enough in slowing outbreaks.
Hopefully can safely get us to a point where a viable vaccine exists that we can use to protect vulnerables like nursing homes, oncology patients, etc
I think the 20% herd immunity + whatever innate T cell function is in the population + our behavioral changes are proving to be enough in slowing outbreaks.
Hopefully can safely get us to a point where a viable vaccine exists that we can use to protect vulnerables like nursing homes, oncology patients, etc
Posted on 8/11/20 at 6:46 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
Some of y’all are caught up in the concept of herd immunity but it’s a myth in a sophisticated society like America. Well... maybe not a myth but it wouldn’t happen as quickly as a few months. If we lived in a tribe in the jungle then yeah, maybe.
Except we are seeing it in NOLA and NYC
Posted on 8/11/20 at 7:16 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Nate's baws have been wrong more than not since 2008
Posted on 8/11/20 at 7:17 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
tl/dr: there is incredible evidence orleans and jefferson parish are at herd immunity, significantly below the 70% thought to be needed to achieve it.
He's late to the party.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 7:20 am to GreatLakesTiger24
Livingston had already peaked an on its way down when mask mandate was put into effect.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 7:28 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Nate silver says something amazing and hopeful is happening in jefferson/orleans parish
So maybe Mardi Gras was a good thing? Visitors from all over the world (incl early China, Italy, etc) rubbing elbows, drunken hugging, breathing each other's air.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 7:42 am to Uptowner
if a vaccine doesn't come soon, then yes, it's going to be good to be hit early
this applies to the "sweden" threads when people point out their high death rate. that's a big "no shite" and is totally expected
this applies to the "sweden" threads when people point out their high death rate. that's a big "no shite" and is totally expected
Posted on 8/11/20 at 7:45 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Without active cases, and when people realIze their trust was abused, and they were lied to - it may be over sooner than we think.
People already do realize, or should anyway, their trust has been abused and they’ve been lied to for months.
They either don’t care and are happy to continue doing what they’re told, or aren’t smart enough to realize it.
Either way, there seems to be no reason to expect “the people” to do what is necessary with regards to coronavirus.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 7:55 am to Bigfishchoupique
Not even the same thing, here.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 8:33 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
nate silver
Is a numbers nerd.. he is not a politician nor does he care about one side or the other. His 538 site is very interesting.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 8:49 am to CitizenK
quote:
Livingston had already peaked an on its way down when mask mandate was put into effect.
Just curious. Do you really think the mask mandate worked so effectively that cases started dropping immediately?
Posted on 8/11/20 at 8:50 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Scientists who were frozen in December 2019 and thawed out today let out the biggest "duh" known to man.
Regarding interventions, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) implemented a mask mandate on May 16. Jefferson Parish did not implement a mask mandate until July 1, 46 days later.
The people at the top know that masks and shutdowns are not effective. The mask mandates were for one reason: to cover up for terrible shutdown policies by putting the blame for the spread of COVID-19 on you for not wearing a mask.
Posted on 8/11/20 at 8:55 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:I’m not talking about the effectiveness of mask, just the rate if use
I’m pretty sure. It’s consistent across all areas. Look at New York. They didn’t even spike one bit during all the protests. You think that has something to do with masks?
Posted on 8/11/20 at 8:57 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
It's a way to pass blame for shutting down too early in the South. I think my favorite comments lately are people that think the mask mandates had any effect on mitigating the spread. They're just like the politicians pointing at the case counts falling 6 months later claiming they saved us all with their policies LMAO
Posted on 8/11/20 at 9:09 am to wutangfinancial
Numbers should be dropping off a cliff.
What if the masks are worse for spreading due to touching and are moving us closer to herd immunity faster?
Wouldn't that be a conundrum.
What if the masks are worse for spreading due to touching and are moving us closer to herd immunity faster?
Wouldn't that be a conundrum.
This post was edited on 8/11/20 at 9:14 am
Posted on 8/11/20 at 9:17 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The two parishes that were most significantly impacted in March/April, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) and Jefferson Parish, did not see a major second wave after reopening.
o why could that be?
- - It could be that people in those parishes became more aware after the 1st wave and changed their behavior accordingly.
- - Or that a high level of immunity in a population helps curb further spread. I estimate ~20% of New Orleans had been infected by May 1.
Let's say Nate Silver is an expert on the matter, and likely, more than myself. But, there's also other things that come into play.
1. Our Corp office is in NOLA. Almost all of them are still working from home and not coming in contact with as many folks.
2. Our BR office has been
up and going since June 1st. But, the doors are locked no one can come inside the lobby. i have to wear a mask if I take a pee or get a cup of coffee.
We really are only coming in contact with each other within our office and had a few in the last 2 weeks test positive.
Both of these are a combo of behavior and intervention.
3. How many in NOLA are just collecting unemployment?
You can interpret data how ever you want. It's all Phase 2 which means we are barely open for business.
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