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Nate silver says something amazing and hopeful is happening in jefferson/orleans parish
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:21 pm
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:21 pm
this is from nate silver's preferred covid data guru
tl/dr: there is incredible evidence orleans and jefferson parish are at herd immunity, significantly below the 70% thought to be needed to achieve it.
tl/dr: there is incredible evidence orleans and jefferson parish are at herd immunity, significantly below the 70% thought to be needed to achieve it.
quote:
There's been increasing discussion about the role of immunity vs behavior vs interventions in the spread of COVID-19.
Louisiana is a good case study because it's the only state that had two significant waves affecting a large proportion of its population.
Here's a closer look.
On the surface, it seems like all of Louisiana was heavily impacted after reopening despite already experiencing a significant first wave.
But if you break it down by parishes (counties), the data tells a different story.
The two parishes that were most significantly impacted in March/April, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) and Jefferson Parish, did not see a major second wave after reopening.
o why could that be?
It could be that people in those parishes became more aware after the 1st wave and changed their behavior accordingly.
Or that a high level of immunity in a population helps curb further spread. I estimate ~20% of New Orleans had been infected by May 1.
Regarding interventions, Orleans Parish (New Orleans) implemented a mask mandate on May 16. Jefferson Parish did not implement a mask mandate until July 1, 46 days later.
Yet, neither parishes saw a significant increase in deaths after reopening.
This post was edited on 8/10/20 at 9:27 pm
16
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:22 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Look at NYC.
Deaths down over 99.5% from peak.
Deaths down over 99.5% from peak.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:24 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
This is the thread where all the baws ignore potentially useful and beneficial information bc the numbers nerd got the odds wrong for Trump
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:25 pm to Cold Drink
quote:nate silver got verbal abuse from the left in 2016 for having higher odds for trump than other models.
bc the numbers nerd got the odds wrong for Trump
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:26 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I think covid will be gone by early October.
This post was edited on 8/10/20 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:26 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
*Nate Aluminum
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:28 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Covid gone by October
What do you consider "gone"?
I mean. If I lived in NYC is consider it "gone". Yet, I'd still not be allowed to go to a gym or tons of other shite.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:28 pm to Big_Slim
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/25/20 at 2:38 am
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:29 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Some decent news out of Orleans and Jeffersen parish that had frick all to do with local government. In fact, herd immunity despite all the stupidity of the local government.
The sporting opportunities, the food, and yes... LSU are about the only valuable things the entire state has to offer because government is a shite show from local through state government.
The sporting opportunities, the food, and yes... LSU are about the only valuable things the entire state has to offer because government is a shite show from local through state government.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:30 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I think covid will be gone by early October.
Definitely by November 4th.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:31 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
What do you consider "gone"?
The caseload will be effectively zero.
I assume the left will still try and maintain these punitive restrictions, but they won’t have the numbers to justify it. It will make them look mean and arbitrary
This post was edited on 8/10/20 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:33 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Katrina took fifteen years to go away after it made landfall. Expect Corona virus to be here awhile.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:33 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
We’ve been saying this for weeks!
The second wave didn’t happen in Orleans and Jefferson despite the highest population density in the state.
And I don’t want to hear any bullshite about masks. New Orleans is no different than anywhere else in the state. Remember the st Patrick’s day parades right before the lockdown? People aren’t super careful in Orleans/Jefferson
The second wave didn’t happen in Orleans and Jefferson despite the highest population density in the state.
And I don’t want to hear any bullshite about masks. New Orleans is no different than anywhere else in the state. Remember the st Patrick’s day parades right before the lockdown? People aren’t super careful in Orleans/Jefferson
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:35 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
case load effectively zero
I agree.
But, like you I fear these crazy punitive restrictions.
I mean, let's say deaths are down to 5/week in Louisiana. I'd consider it "gone". Yet, I could see government trying to scare ppl still.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:36 pm to Bigfishchoupique
quote:
Katrina took fifteen years to go away after it made landfall. Expect Corona virus to be here awhile.
I appreciate the comparison, the effects lasted long after the storm passed. But this one might evaporate on us.
Without active cases, and when people realIze their trust was abused, and they were lied to - it may be over sooner than we think.
This post was edited on 8/10/20 at 9:37 pm
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:39 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
I mean, let's say deaths are down to 5/week in Louisiana. I'd consider it "gone". Yet, I could see government trying to scare ppl still.
I’m sure these officials will try and maintain it as long as possible. But the regime will collapse.
The frustration and anger will boil over - and people will ignore the rules. They’ll stop obeying the restrictions.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:47 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
Look at NYC.
Deaths down over 99.5% from peak.
That is what happens when you stop sending virus infected people to the nursing homes. It's amazing, but I call is science. The gov caused the death of many in NY. He should be inpeached.
Posted on 8/10/20 at 9:51 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
great read op.. your best thread in yrs
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:03 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
People aren’t super careful in Orleans/Jefferson
quote:you sure about that? Mask use is basically 99% in New Orleans grocery stores
New Orleans is no different than anywhere else in the state.
Doubt it’s that high in Livingston or Washington parish
Posted on 8/10/20 at 10:22 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Some of y’all are caught up in the concept of herd immunity but it’s a myth in a sophisticated society like America. Well... maybe not a myth but it wouldn’t happen as quickly as a few months.
If we lived in a tribe in the jungle then yeah, maybe.
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