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Started By
Message
re: Multi-day Severe Weather Threat: 3/23-3/24
Posted on 3/23/23 at 8:09 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 3/23/23 at 8:09 am to LegendInMyMind
15% Tornado area and a hatched Wind area
Paging TheBoat...
Paging TheBoat...
This post was edited on 3/23/23 at 8:11 am
0
Posted on 3/23/23 at 11:27 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I’m glad the bulk of the threat will be during the middle of the night for north & central Alabama. It makes spotting difficult, but at least we will have lost daytime heating by the time things move through here.
I think you're in for another one of those nights of holding your breath as strong storms approach the state line.
The LLJ will be a little late to get going, but by 10/11pm we have a 60-70kt LLJ draped from southern MS up to KY. Also, the way the trough is trending isn't great. It kind of develops split flow over north MS that will help shear. At 700mb you can see some little kinks or shortwaves that will probably be all the forcing needed to get cells firing. This looks and feels like a Springtime setup.
For north AL folks it looks like we will have a pretty potent late night/early morning line roll through.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 12:28 pm to LegendInMyMind
Is DFW out of the woods now? Cloudy and humid all morning and sun just came out blazing. Made me nervous until I saw that we now aren’t expecting anything to move in until 3:00 am now.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 12:53 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Posted on 3/23/23 at 1:09 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
Is DFW out of the woods now?
Probably. The better threat and timing is West of DFW. They could see big hail, and with the latest SPC update a 5% tornado probability. That threat is centered right over Pedro in Wichita Falls.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 1:10 pm to OSoBad
Man that stretch from Natchez to Greenville to Memphis has been getting worked this spring.
Is this the 3rd or 4th round where they’ve been in the bullseye for a late winter/early spring setup?
Is this the 3rd or 4th round where they’ve been in the bullseye for a late winter/early spring setup?
Posted on 3/23/23 at 1:44 pm to LegendInMyMind
Thanks
Posted on 3/23/23 at 2:47 pm to LegendInMyMind
18z hrrr doing its best fv3 impression
Posted on 3/23/23 at 3:08 pm to The Boat
The MOD area is looking better and better. Farther south may have some issues with sustaining.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 3:09 pm to East Coast Band
Posted on 3/23/23 at 3:16 pm to BoogaBear
LOL she is too Booga - those 3 are the vast majority of hers.
also -
also -
quote:seems like a Euphemism for going to Walmart
Planning on spending the day at Seaworld with the kids.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 3:37 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Posted on 3/23/23 at 3:58 pm to Lsuhoohoo
I heard EBR Schools are closing.
Kidding. Just practicing.
Kidding. Just practicing.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 4:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Farther south may have some issues with sustaining.
baton rouge gonna get it bad?
Posted on 3/23/23 at 4:53 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
baton rouge gonna get it bad?
Nah. Probably just some showers and breezy.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 5:37 pm to The Boat
quote:
18z hrrr doing its best fv3 impression
Please explain like I’m 5.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 5:44 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Nah. Probably just some showers and breezy.
And for sure someone from the BR area will show up in this thread calling this a bust. LOL
Posted on 3/23/23 at 5:45 pm to Breauxsif
Ahh Dan Pope.
What a Pacific Northwest Treasure that guy was.
What a Pacific Northwest Treasure that guy was.
Posted on 3/23/23 at 6:39 pm to LegendInMyMind
Any chance we see a high risk or a 30% tornado hatched area? Seems like if we get enough moisture convergence to create forcing it could get bad. From what I understand this is the only ingredient that may be weaker and hinder stronger long track tornado potential
This post was edited on 3/23/23 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 3/24/23 at 5:41 am to deltaland
SPC has not gone with a high risk yet, though I’ve seen some speculation that they might upgrade to one later this morning. We’ll see.
They included this rather ominous wording about the current moderate risk area in their overnight update:
They included this rather ominous wording about the current moderate risk area in their overnight update:
quote:
Across southeast Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi, a more volatile environment will develop Friday evening/early overnight. More discrete convection is anticipated on the southern periphery of the aforementioned QLCS. The more discrete mode, combined with greater instability and strong shear should allow for multiple supercells to develop across northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas and move northeastward. Low-level hodographs are very favorable in this region with 0-500m SRH around 200 m2/s2 and 0-1km SRH 300+ m2/s2. Therefore, any sustained supercells will be capable of producing strong to intense (EF3+) tornadoes, with long-track tornadoes possible with any longer-lived, undisturbed supercells.
This post was edited on 3/24/23 at 5:42 am
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