re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

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Wife running a 30 year old heater in a 70 year old house trying to keep it 70 degrees when its in the teens outside and guess who gets to go in the attic to fix it

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Sorry for the the delay. Lots to digest on this one.
It looks like another round of wintry madness is on the way. This one may leave some of the area in just a cold rain, but a winter storm watch has been issued for Rapides, Vernon, and Avoyelles Parish for what could be a significant ice storm. Most areas north of the winter storm watch are under a winter storm warning, with the exception being Catahoula and Concordia Parish, but that could, and likely will change. Models, once again, almost seem to be in disbelief as some have shown a major ice storm, and others are drifting that way. In fact, all models at least show some ice north of a DeRidder to Forest Hill to Marksville line. I do think that specific corridor could sneak up to around 33-34 degrees in the afternoon, but that would likely happen after some fairly significant freezing rain. It’s entirely possible that we see another round of thunderstorms in temperatures ranging from 28-32 degrees. Typically a once in a generation event down here. In this case we are knocking out two events like that before the second half of the “workweek”. We might start as a little sleet, but this system should mainly be rain down south, and freezing rain for the rest of us. Remember, sleet is the stuff that’s frozen when it hits the ground and bounces off things. Freezing rain is liquid that freezes on contact with temperatures at or below freezing. In this case, the very cold temperatures leading up to the event should aid in allowing the rain to freeze on everything it touches, including our ice packed roads. The main window for this to fall looks like roughly 7:00 AM until 7:00 PM on Wednesday. Here is a parish by parish breakdown of how I see this going.
Rapides… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Vernon… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Avoyelles… Mostly freezing rain in the northwest half of the parish, freezing rain could change to very cold rain in areas like Simmesport and Cottonport. Total ice accumulation 1/8-1/2 inch. Power outages possible, especially in the northwest part of the parish.
Grant… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Sabine… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Natchitoches… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Winn… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Caldwell… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Catahoula… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Concordia…. Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Tensas… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Beauregard… Freezing rain likely changing to rain in the afternoon. Especially in southern, and southeastern parts of the parish. Total ice accumulation 1/8 to 1/2 inch, with highest totals in the northwest part of the parish. Power outages possible, especially in the northwestern part of the parish.
Allen… Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.
Evangeline….Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.
St. Landry… Mostly rain, but freezing rain possible early in the event in the northern part of the parish. Up to 1/8 inch of ice possible before it changes to rain in the northern part of the parish. I don’t expect major power outage issues in St. Landry.
Whew. That was a lot to get through. Power outages are a major concern, especially north of a DeRidder to Glenmora to Bunkie line. Be as prepared as possible for several days without power if this event unfolds as I think it will. The chance for sleet is much more limited than our last system. Our “hope” is that these rainfall rates are pretty high and a lot of this water falls off the branches and power lines before it has a chance to freeze. At temperatures of 28-32, heavier rain is actually a good thing as it takes a little time to freeze so some slips off the elevated stuff if it’s just dumping down. Light to moderate freezing rain actually accumulates more efficiently. I’m factoring that into my forecast as models indicate up to 2 inches of liquid in spots that may not get above freezing. So my 1 inch ice total may seem a bit high, but I’ve cut the precipitation potential in half in many areas to account for potentially heavy rain falling. I know it’s tough to really get out and prepare on this one due to ice packed roads. If I’m looking for good news its that we won’t see historic cold afterward. I mean, it’ll be cold, with lows falling into the 20s, but it won’t be single digit cold in many areas like it was last night. Then we start a nice warm up this weekend, and leave this crazy week in the rearview mirror. Here’s hoping this forecast ends up looking overdone, and we warm a couple degrees more than expected. But plan for this realistic scenario I’ve outlined. Could be yet another doozy.

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wow we might not get out of the 20s today in BR, it's almost 11 and it's still in the low 20s outside

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We could have tornadoes in south Louisiana the same day we have a snowstorm in north Louisiana.

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