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re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:18 am to
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
16120 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:18 am to
These are just models no one is guessing. Everyone says this far out expect significant changes.
Posted by purple18
Lafayette
Member since Aug 2009
1772 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 6:44 am to
06z GFS is back on board with ice and sleet for Tuesday. C’mon Euro join the club!
Posted by Cowboyfan89
Member since Sep 2015
13041 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 6:48 am to
quote:

06z GFS is back on board with ice and sleet for Tuesday. C’mon Euro join the club!

Why would you actually wish for this shite?

I'd rather not have the potential for shitty road conditions and power outages. Ice and sleet is just going to be a giant shite show down here.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
16357 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 7:52 am to
Weather underground now showing my area staying above freezing for the next 7 days
Posted by Tempratt
Member since Oct 2013
15175 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 7:56 am to
Commie pinko temps; only 90 degree temps with high humidity are proper for Louisiana.

Seriously I like cool weather but in the twenties is pretty harsh.
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
20860 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:04 am to
These weather forecasters need to make sure they communicate the lack of confidence in their forecasting. This Friday is a day off for my son’s school, but my wife and I have to work. My parents were originally supposed to watch him but after seeing a forecast of “34/17 with snow showers and potential ice,” I cancelled on them and scheduled a personal day off.

Now I’ll have to see if my parents can still watch him.

Dear Facebook, I know. But the weather can impact a lot of people and if they’re really releasing forecasts based on hype, ratings, and clicks, then they can go frick themselves.

Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50535 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:26 am to
So you changed your plans based on a forecast a WEEK away? That’s on you, man. The model runs at this point are still uncertain even though there’s still some decent consistency and because official forecasts are based on model runs, those forecasts will always change - especially that far away.

This thread is for discussion surrounding these model runs and we are to all fully understand that this event is likely to change in some way.
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
33142 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 9:18 am to
Yeah I would put the chance at snow south of I-20 at 40%.
This post was edited on 2/7/21 at 9:18 am
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
20860 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 9:26 am to
quote:

So you changed your plans based on a forecast a WEEK away? That’s on you, man.


What? My parents need time to schedule time off work if we’re asking them for help. Looking at a forecast that says low temps and snow means I need to let them know ASAP if we aren’t going to need them.

The forecasters know that the models are showing inconsistencies, so why choose the low temps and snow to post in apps, websites, and on TV shows?
Posted by schwartzy
New Orleans
Member since May 2014
10022 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 9:31 am to
Looks like it’s not even going to freeze in Lafayette anymore. My how things change
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50535 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:13 am to
What are you looking at?? The latest GFS shows a huge ice storm for south Louisiana on Saturday/Sunday timeframe. This possibility is far from gone.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102297 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:29 am to
GFS returns to the party. Saturday night into Sunday

Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50535 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:35 am to
Sunday AND Monday mornings at 6:00am —-

11 degrees in Baton Rouge


This is likely due to the ground being covered in ice by that point.
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:35 am to
Yeah, 12z GFS has gone all in. Single digits for BR area and 20s for days after a big ice storm all day Saturday.

Obviously these runs shouldn’t be taken to heart but it’s an eye opener.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50535 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:35 am to
Beat you to it

Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:51 am to
And yet the Canadian has us in the 70s on Monday...
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50535 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:54 am to
That’s insane. One or two of the models will be the biggest bust in recent weather model history.
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:55 am to
You would think it would be the opposite.

Surely they will just split the difference.
This post was edited on 2/7/21 at 10:57 am
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102297 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:12 am to



While the GFS brought back the winter precip, the latest Canadian dropped any winter precip all together and has South La in the 60s and 70s during the GFS depicted ice storm.


Idk. Get out your heavy parka and snow shoes but leave the shorts and flops at arms reach.
This post was edited on 2/7/21 at 11:15 am
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
60890 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:19 am to
My app (Weather Underground) has gone from a Friday low of 21 to now 39 just in the last 24 hours.
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