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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:28 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:28 pm to rds dc
The 12z Euro EPS is pretty tightly clustered around a SE Louisiana landfall for Marco but most all of them are in a weakening phase. The majority of the members take Laura west of the operational model run.
2
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:28 pm to doubleb
quote:
Is that the official center now or is that the MLC?
based off of what Levi said and the radar... I figured the MLC had burrowed down into a new LLC and thus the center of the storm
but the NHC hasn't put out a "Laura made landfall" statement... so I now take back my previous statment
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:29 pm to rds dc
Seems to be an agreement so far.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:31 pm to Jake88
quote:
How often do we see such a drastic change in path from one update to the very next? A 300+ mile swing?
As has already been explained, the drastic nature is due to the difficult time models have initializing the data. If start off with shite, your output will be shite.
If you look at the ensembles you see how big a difference a slight tweak at initialization can be.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:32 pm to Mr. Misanthrope
I have always thought that Betsy was worse than Gustav in BR. The winds were constant and I can still hear that ominous roar.
But that was never really documented officially. Good stuff there, Thxs.
But that was never really documented officially. Good stuff there, Thxs.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
I can now pretend to be a hurricane hunter thanks to modern technology. Just flew threw the center of Laura. It was a little dicey. If a true eye wall forms, you better believe I'm going to punch through that thing.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
What kind of affect will the churned up waters from Marco have on Laura coming in behind less than 48 hours over the same disturbed open waters?
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:35 pm to lsufan4lifeMiles
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:39 pm to The Boat
I don't think there are very many instances of 100mph sustained from locations not right on the coast. Friction really slows things down once you get just a little bit inland... but that just goes to show how much sustained 50s and gusts 70s will frick stuff up.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:39 pm to rds dc
quote:
12z HWRF nailed this.
I’m disturbed by how accurate that model has been
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:40 pm to GEAUXmedic
These models are starting to look like they don’t believe that high ridge is going to be as strong and westerly as they first thought.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:44 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:
can now pretend to be a hurricane hunter thanks to modern technology. Just flew threw the center of Laura. It was a little dicey.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:45 pm to GEAUXmedic
It’s funny Marco is 48 hours from the coast but no one GAFs because Laura looks like the big bopper.
If Marco was by itself we’d be deep in the fear porn right is even thought it’s not going to be much of a storm.
If Marco was by itself we’d be deep in the fear porn right is even thought it’s not going to be much of a storm.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:46 pm to The Boat
Human nature is funny This post was edited on 8/22/20 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:53 pm to The Boat
When the TVCN and the OFCL tracks are this far apart, expect a big shift in forecast track
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
HMNI deep into the magic mushrooms now.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:56 pm to rds dc
So, serious question - for those of us in BR, when should we start to be very concerned? And if it is not now, then when? I’ve got kids and a pregnant wife, and a bunch of trees, and kind of just don’t want to ride this out if it is going to be bad. Also don’t want to overreact.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:58 pm to Newc
quote:
And if it is not now, then when? I’ve got kids and a pregnant wife, and a bunch of trees, and kind of just don’t want to ride this out if it is going to be bad. Also don’t want to overreact.
Well if u can afford it just go and make a vacation out of it. Ozarks and Gatlingberg are nice this time of year.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 2:59 pm to BottomlandBrew
Where do you go to be a virtual hurricane hunter?
Posted on 8/22/20 at 3:00 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Microsoft Flight Simulator
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