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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:31 am to
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:31 am to
quote:

The battery commander looks like a mild mannered school teacher. Nobody is a PT stud and their kit is a bit mix and match. But they know what they're about and they have an air of confidence.



And they are motivated.
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:32 am to
quote:

I feel sorry for the poor Ukrainian people who were forced to vote for Zelensky at gunpoint by the CIA.



Bless your heart. The State Department and CIA are simply spending billions out of the goodness of their hearts to defeat mean old Russia. It couldn't possibly have anything to do with building a puppet state on the Russian border over the last 30 years. One where corruption from the Untied States runs rampant (see Hunter Biden sitting on the board of a Ukranian company pulling in 500K a year when he had no qualifications for the position).

This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 11:34 am
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:36 am to
I gave you the two maps side by side and the red line has shifted dramatically and so have the Russian advances. In another month Russia will nearly have the Donbas region. Ukraine will be starring defeat in the face once that becomes the case.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
12866 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:37 am to
quote:

Yeah it’s rarely that quick and plenty of US servicemen have been killed due to the indecisiveness of the guys doing the thumbs up at the targeting cell and even more bad guys have lived to fight another day. US commanders don’t get reprimanded or fired for losing troops or not killing the enemy, they get fired for accidentally or negligently killing civilians more often than not.


I doubt the Ukrainians will be so careful.

Yeah that was my point - that a big part of their efficiency relative to the US has to do with all of the vetting/authorization/etc. that has to take place per US policy. I imagine a lot of that shite goes out the window when you’re fighting for your homeland.

The same Twitter thread went on to say this:
quote:

In 2006, when US Army Special Forces task force hunting high value targets was given direct access to an MLRS battery with GMLRS rockets - without a JAG officer poisoned chain of command - got it back down to Vietnam 15-minute levels in Iraq, thanks to the Blue Force Tracker.

This didn't last long with the Obama Administration thanks to Taliban high value targets using their own kids as human shields followed by cellphone photos of dead kids.

Then everything went back to the JAG officer game & the Special Forces started buying loitering drones.

Makes sense to me. Still seems like the Ukrainians have a pretty impressive system worked out, assuming everything in that thread is accurate. Their usage of commercial satellite services is very interesting and a sign of the times.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8198 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:38 am to
I will gladly bet you $100 that doesn't happen.

quote:

I gave you the two maps side by side, and the red line has shifted dramatically, and so have the Russian advances. In another month, Russia will nearly have the Donbas region. Ukraine will be staring defeat in the face once that becomes the case.


ETA: I posted a map that shows in easier to understand detail exactly what the Russian advances amount to over the course of 6 weeks. To think that all of a sudden, Russia is going to nearly take the entire Donbas is nothing but a Russian dream.

The entire Russian advance in 6 weeks. A lot of the yellow in that was undefended land.
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This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 11:43 am
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105595 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:39 am to
AMA with a Finnish volunteer LINK
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11918 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:40 am to
Operation Michael proceeding apace. The Germans should be in Paris by end of summer.

Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42849 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:42 am to
In my lifetime the US had spent trillions of dollars to guard against Russian imperialism. That’s better than spending way more than that in lives and money fighting them directly.

Russian imperialism has caused problem after problem for her neighbors. You could even argue that the Russian/German pact which carved up Poland jump started WWII.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 11:45 am
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:42 am to
quote:

I will gladly bet you $100 that doesn't happen.


It will take at least a year for Ukraine to completely fall/surrender. I imagine it'll happen in 2023 or maybe even at some point in 2024.

As for the bet, I'm good. I don't need your money.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 11:43 am
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:43 am to
quote:

Still seems like the Ukrainians have a pretty impressive system worked out,


Its wartime targeting, acquire target, firing solution, round out.

Our "targeting" in Iraq and Afghanistan was mostly a debating society.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8198 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:44 am to
Chicken

I am not talking about the whole war, I'm talking about your statement that Russia would take most of the Donbas in the next month. Put your money where your mouth is.

quote:

In another month Russia will nearly have the Donbas region.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 11:47 am
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:46 am to
quote:

ETA: I posted a map that shows in easier to understand detail exactly what the Russian advances amount to over the course of 6 weeks. To think that all of a sudden, Russia is going to nearly take the entire Donbas is nothing but a Russian dream.

The entire Russian advance in 6 weeks. A lot of the yellow in that was undefended land.


Their main goal in the Donbas seems to be to surround and destroy Sloviansk which I think they will be able to accomplish in around 6 weeks. Their artillery from Yampil is able to reach that city.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13562 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:48 am to
quote:

will take at least a year for Ukraine to completely fall/surrender


Wait....you still think the Russian Army is about to conquer the nation of Ukraine? Like capture Kiev and force the government to fall, lay down their arms, and cease sanctioned resistance?

Are you for real?
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:49 am to
quote:

I am not talking about the whole war, I'm talking about your statement that Russia would take most of the Donbas in the next month. Put your money where your mouth is.


I don't need or want your money.

And yes, it appears they will have Sloviansk surrounded and most of the Donbas region over the next 4-6 weeks.
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Wait....you still think the Russian Army is about to conquer the nation of Ukraine? Like capture Kiev and force the government to fall, lay down their arms, and cease sanctioned resistance?

Are you for real?



Absolutely. Russia will take the Donbas region and funnel in more troops over the coming months and fully mobilize to destroy and occupy larger portions of the country. Kyiv will fall at some point in 2023/2024.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8198 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:51 am to
quote:

Their main goal in the Donbas seems to be to surround and destroy Sloviansk which I think they will be able to accomplish in around 6 weeks. Their artillery from Yampil is able to reach that city.


Now, this I can possibly agree with, 6 more weeks to take the city of Sievierodonetsk. Keep in mind that Ukraine will just fall back to the next line of defense.

Taking one city is much different than subuing the entire Donbas region.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8198 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:54 am to
I'm not trying to be snarky. What makes you believe this? I'm seriously trying to understand your view.

quote:

Absolutely. Russia will take the Donbas region and funnel in more troops over the coming months and fully mobilize to destroy and occupy larger portions of the country. Kyiv will fall at some point in 2023/2024.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 11:55 am
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Now, this I can possibly agree with, 6 more weeks to take the city of Sievierodonetsk. Keep in mind that Ukraine will just fall back to the next line of defense.

Taking one city is much different than subuing the entire Donbas region.


Sievereodonetsk appears it's at risk of being surrounded much sooner than that. I'm talking about Sloviansk which is the bigger city further West.

The Russian Army heavily relies on artillery at the moment and it takes a while to clear out many of these towns and cities. I don't expect any sort of rapid takeover but methodical progress.
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
46575 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:56 am to
quote:

a puppet state on the Russian border over the last 30 years


You're unhinged. So all of Europe is just one big puppet state of the US? Because under your description, they are.

It's just poor little Russia out there trying to take down the evil empire that is the united states and its European puppet continent.

This war would never have happened if Ukraine had just given Russia everything they wanted, right?

quote:

One where corruption from the Untied States runs rampant (see Hunter Biden sitting on the board of a Ukranian company pulling in 500K a year when he had no qualifications for the position).


Because this doesn't happen in other countries with other politicians all across the fricking globe. Nope, it's just this one because Biden and Hunter and, and, and!!!!

Biden is a corrupt potato. But so are half of our politicians. The fact you have such a hardon for Ukraine while ignoring all the other shite our politicians, to include Republicans, do on a daily basis shows your complete bias and the fact you've been successfully swayed by Russian propaganda.

Of course helping Ukraine benefits the politicians. Everything they do is solely for their benefit. But in this case, it's also helping a nation who was unilaterally invaded in 2014 and again in 2022, who is in our best interests to keep pulling further into European alignment...for the exact reasons Ukraine is fighting for their country right now.
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10514 posts
Posted on 5/10/22 at 11:57 am to
quote:

I'm not trying to be snarky. What makes you believe this? I'm seriously trying to understand your view.



I think putin will invest whatever manpower needed to win the entire war over the months and years to come. Ukraine has a much lower ceiling on troop numbers.

I don't see a circumstance where he allows Ukraine and Zelensky to survive.
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