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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:22 am to Tigeralum2008
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:22 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
I’m guessing the best route to get the volume of wheat out of Ukraine is via ship through the strait Perhaps Ukraine doesn’t have the rail infrastructure to support war and economy
There was a Twitter thread I linked to a while back in this thread - getting rid of shipping cuts Ukraine export capability by 90% and if Russia can maintain the blockade rail capacity will have to increase dramatically which may take a few years.
0
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:24 am to lostinbr
quote:Yes, you're correct. The author explains this as follows -
One thing I wanted to clarify - as I understand it based on that thread, the longer time from “call to trigger pull” for US forces appears to be largely due to bureaucratic/legal factors rather than technological difficulties, no?
quote:
The increased US Army time 'from call to trigger pull' has to do trying to prevent friendly fire plus the inclusion of JAG officers in Division artillery fire control centers doing rules of engagement/collateral damage vetting of calls for fire.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The increased US Army time 'from call to trigger pull' has to do trying to prevent friendly fire plus the inclusion of JAG officers in Division artillery fire control centers doing rules of engagement/collateral damage vetting of calls for fire.
In a real war, I wonder how long it would take for this process to go by the wayside.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:36 am to magildachunks
quote:
If you haven't realised how much more superior the NATO equipment that is being supplied is to the Russian equipment, then you must be ignoring everything that goes against what you want reality to be.
I keep reading this. I also an seeing reports that the western equipment is already starting to be deployed, but there does not seem to be any dramatic differences day to day. I guess we will all see whether this is in fact a game changer. I hope so.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:38 am to TBoy
I think the real tell will be around 2 weeks from now, the M777 just recorded its first battlefield use 2 days ago. The equipment is just now starting to show up. We haven't seen the Switchblade 600 or Ghost Reaper on the battlefield yet.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:38 am to cypher
What do the stockpiles look like in former Soviet, current NATO countries? Are there enough to replenish Ukrainian tank losses? Even assuming that Russian’s statements regarding UA losses are fanciful, there is no doubt that UA has lost many tanks that also need to be replaced.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:42 am to Athanatos
quote:
What do the stockpiles look like in former Soviet, current NATO countries? Are there enough to replenish Ukrainian tank losses? Even assuming that Russian’s statements regarding UA losses are fanciful, there is no doubt that UA has lost many tanks that also need to be replaced.
I've seen commentary that Ukraine now has more tanks on the battlefield than when the war started. They have captured a fair number from Russia, they have received tanks from former Soviet bloc countries that are now part of NATO, and they are getting assistance in repairing battlefield damaged tanks.
It would be interesting to see the performance of Western tanks against the Russian tanks; however, I'm not aware of any western tanks in Ukraine's hands at this point.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:42 am to Athanatos
The Ukrainians are capturing more salvageable Russian tanks than they're losing. They could use better tanks, but quantity isn't the issue. Artillery/ammo is more the issue.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 8:53 am to TigerDoc
quote:
@julianborger
DNI Avril Haines tells the Senate Armed Services Committee Putin wants to extend a land bridge all the way to Transnistria, but US intelligence assesses he can't do that without full mobilisation.
On nuclear threat, Haines said: "We continue to believe that President Putin would probably only authorise the use of nuclear weapons if he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state or his regime."
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:01 am to Decatur
Russia waisting hypersonic missiles on shopping malls and hotels
Can’t fix stupid, cave man brains with a modern weapon
Can’t fix stupid, cave man brains with a modern weapon
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:02 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I'm not aware of any western tanks in Ukraine's hands at this point.
I doubt there will be. They aren't cheap, and it takes quite some time to properly train a tank crew on them.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:06 am to Tigeralum2008
Ukraine is in the process of making the western Black Sea off limits to Russian air and naval assets. Once that is accomplished, a good minesweeping would open the port of Odessa. That doesn't solve the problem of insurance for the merchant ships, without which they won't operate. Perhaps an indemnification scheme by western governments.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:07 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Ghost Reaper on the battlefield yet.
First group of Ukrainians finished training on May 8, won't be long till they show up.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:07 am to Decatur
quote:
@jseldin
NEW-US intel believes #Russia's #Putin will not be content w/a victory in just eastern #Ukraine "We assess Pres. #Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in #Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond. the #Donbas" per @ODNIgovs Haines
"We assess that Pres. Putin's strategic goals have probably not changed, suggesting he regards the decision in late March to refocus Russian forces on the #Donbas as only a temporary shift to regain the initiative after the #Russia|n military's failure to capture #Kyiv" - Haines
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:09 am to Centinel
The only thing that might impact the likelihood is the dwindling ammunition stocks for the Ukrainian tanks. A few weeks ago, I posted an article I found that discussed the need for Ukraine to transition to Western-based weapon systems due to their declining ammunition stocks. The article discussed how difficult this would be to accomplish in the middle of a war given all the logistics, training, maintenance, etc...the Ukrainian army would have to pull off.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:13 am to Decatur
The core problem with this is that he needs hundreds of thousands of troops to pull it off. Troops he doesn't have at the moment. Yes he can mobilize, but then they have to train, equip, and support all those troops in the field...they've had issues just supporting the 200K they started the invasion off with.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:14 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
the inclusion of JAG officers in Division artillery fire control centers doing rules of engagement/collateral damage vetting of calls for fire.
Just a real quick targeting analysis then a thumbs up to the boss, fire away. Not much is off the table in this war.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:16 am to Chromdome35
I wonder if he doesn't see himself surviving with a humiliating loss, so he's willing to double down, willing to immiserate his country. Bloomberg published a story yesterday from sources inside the Russian Finance ministry saying they expect a 12% GDP contraction this year (close to what was sign after the USSR went defunct).
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:17 am to Decatur
quote:
@jseldin
NEW-US intel believes #Russia's #Putin will not be content w/a victory in just eastern #Ukraine "We assess Pres. #Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in #Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond. the #Donbas" per @ODNIgovs Haines
"We assess that Pres. Putin's strategic goals have probably not changed, suggesting he regards the decision in late March to refocus Russian forces on the #Donbas as only a temporary shift to regain the initiative after the #Russia|n military's failure to capture #Kyiv" - Haines
He cannot regenerate more combat power in the short, medium or perhaps even long term. I don't think he's so detached from reality not to know that. Maybe he's counting on the west to get tired or fracture. Maybe when it starts getting cold again he expects Europe to come begging for Russian gas. That's not an outlandish thing to hang his hat on, but his army may not last until next fall.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 9:23 am
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:24 am to Chromdome35
quote:
The core problem with this is that he needs hundreds of thousands of troops to pull it off.
Yeah I’m not sure how to reconcile that. I have confidence in our assessments so I think the disconnect is probably on the Russian side.
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