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Lets give Russia the benefit of the doubt and double what western experts think and say that Russia produces 200 new T90s per year. It will still take 25 years for Russia to replace what it lost in Ukraine. So Russia is looking at 2050 before it is even as strong as it was in 2022. Until then it is propping itself up with 50+ year old outdated tanks.

Meanwhile Poland by itself will have over 1300 new western MBTs delivered by 2030. It will also have Apache helicopters, new F16s, F35s, missiles, and all kinds of new drones delivered. It will have a standing army of 300,000 and 700,000 reservists. That is more than Ukraine had at the start of the invasion and way more advanced equipment than Ukraine had at the start of the invasion. Not to mention that Poland has a working air defense system which is something Ukraine did not have at the start of the invasion. Poland is also home to an Aegis Ashore system which can intercept missiles in the atmosphere. They are negotiating with Israel to buy the Arrow3 missile systems. It is also working with Ukraine which has already produced and deployed in small numbers a laser missile defense system. Again that is just Poland. It does not take into account the UK, France, Germany and the other European members of NATO who hopefully will get off their arse now that they are scared that the USA will abandon them. If they do then you can double or triple the forces and equipment that NATO would be able to bring to bear against Russia in a fight for a land bridge to Kalingrad.

If a land bridge to Kalingrad scenario happens in the next 20 years or so Russia will get its shite pushed in by Poland and the other European forces on the ground. Poland will have the capability to intercept Russia's nukes, and France and the UK have nukes so they can hit back if Russia is stupid enough to let the nukes fly. So even if the USA whimps out and does not respond to Article 5 being used. The European members of NATO would be able to stop Russia. Which is what Trump is trying to get them to do. Now if the European members of NATO continue to sit back and not keep their militaries ready to fight then Russia may have a chance. However, even then it will take Russia at least 10-15 years to recover from its failed invasion of Ukraine (yes it is a failed invasion because its goal was to conquer the whole country).

I like your assessment.

Most people are thinking instead of Russia building all of its own tanks, it gets them from North Korea and Iran and possibly China (which... I don't think any of those are know for quality in that area)...

The scenario is that Russia relies on its nuclear stockpile. Poland does not have Nukes (yet)... the nuclear "option" is all Russia has left. With US retaliatory strikes off the table that leaves the UK, France, Belgium, Italy, The Netherlands, and Turkey... and at a numerical disadvantage (assuming, as most don't, that all of the Russian nukes work)...

Poland is beefing up so much because it takes this threat/scenario very seriously...

The Baltic States are acting like it's already basically in motion.

They recently asked NATO for permission to respond immediately with attacks on Moscow if Russia invades, rather than waiting for the usual 5-day waiting period for NATO unified response... and it was granted.

Never too safe, I guess.