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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/29/25 at 8:17 pm to texag7
Posted on 1/29/25 at 8:17 pm to texag7
ISW Update Jan 29th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Western military assistance remains vital to Ukraine's ability to maintain its defense against Russian aggression.
Putin's longstanding theory of victory relies on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine, and only unwavering Western support and consistent deliveries of Western military assistance to Kyiv can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept the need to offer the concessions necessary for any resolution to the conflict acceptable to the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
Putin indicated that he will not view any peace agreement with Ukraine as binding by claiming that the Ukrainian government is either unwilling or unable to rescind the 2022 Ukrainian presidential decree banning negotiations with Putin.
Putin's statements rejecting the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and of a possible future peace agreement set conditions for Russia to justify violating any future agreements with Ukraine.
Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiations framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike at the Russian oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and reportedly hit a Russian arsenal in Tver Oblast on the night of January 28 to 29.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed in a post on January 29 that Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik is the commander of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Robotnye, and in the Dnipro direction.
Volunteer recruitment rates in in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine.
quote:
Volunteer recruitment rates in in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on January 29 that the number of Russian citizens willing to volunteer to fight in Ukraine in Moscow City has dropped significantly since Moscow's peak daily rate of 200 to 250 people in August 2024 (after the start of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk) to the current daily rate of about 40 people.[86] The demographic makeup of the volunteers has also largely shifted as ordinary Russian citizens now comprise only half of the volunteers while the other half are largely foreigners and individuals facing criminal or administrative charges. Verstka, citing sources in the Moscow mayor's office and interviews with foreign recruits, noted that more citizens particularly from the People's Republic of China (PRC), African countries, and many from post-Soviet countries are signing contracts with the MoD and are drawn by the promise of one-time payments of 1.9 million rubles (about $19,140).
The Russian government continues to use its "Time of Heroes" program to appoint veterans of the war in Ukraine to federal government positions as part of wider Kremlin efforts to militarize Russian society. The "Time of Heroes" program reported on January 29 that Russian authorities appointed Sergey Kuzminchuk, a participant of the program and veteran of the war, to be the federal inspector for the Kamchatka Krai Office of the Plenipotentiary Representative of the Russian President in the Far Eastern Federal District.[87]
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Posted on 1/29/25 at 9:01 pm to Chromdome35
Are you asking what units will be available for an offensive?
I think you’ll see organic collapses, sudden retreats or gaps opening up, along stretches of the front which the Russians will then exploit.
I think you’ll see organic collapses, sudden retreats or gaps opening up, along stretches of the front which the Russians will then exploit.
Posted on 1/29/25 at 9:26 pm to Lima Whiskey
To exploit a break in the Ukrainian lines, Russia needs to be able to push into the break with mobile units that can make deep penetrations into the unprepared rear areas (think Sir Winston & a Tranny)... the same thing Ukraine did to Russia in the summer of 2022 when Ukraine rolled into the areas southeast of Kharkiv.
If Russia can't push through the break in the lines, and move rapidly forward, the war will continue to drag on.
So I'm asking, what mobility is left in the Russian army at this point. Do they have an equipped Armored division at the ready to push through? I'm not aware of any, but thought you might know.
If Russia can't push through the break in the lines, and move rapidly forward, the war will continue to drag on.
So I'm asking, what mobility is left in the Russian army at this point. Do they have an equipped Armored division at the ready to push through? I'm not aware of any, but thought you might know.
This post was edited on 1/29/25 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 1/29/25 at 9:37 pm to Chromdome35
All Russia has is artillery... the only way Russia captures territory is through shelling it to complete rubble, and the Ukrainians withdraw because they have no place left to shelter... how much longer will Russia have artillery?
Posted on 1/29/25 at 9:41 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
So I'm asking, what mobility is left in the Russian army at this point. Do they have an equipped Armored division at the ready to push through? I'm not aware of any, but thought you might know.
I think they’d have to ask N Korea for that.
Posted on 1/29/25 at 9:53 pm to John Barron
quote:
9 in 10 Ukrainian media 'to go bust' after USAID pulls plug on funding their anti-Russian propaganda — Kiev's Mass Media Institute head
What are cypher, Citizen, and Chrome going to do? Sent to the front in cuffs?
Posted on 1/29/25 at 9:56 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Do they have an equipped Armored division at the ready to push through?
So Ukraine, with the backing of the entire west (the greatest military alliance the world has ever seen), is losing to an army that you claim has no mechanized units?
Posted on 1/29/25 at 10:41 pm to VolSquatch
Do you watch or pay attention to any of the video that is released daily showing what is happening on the ground? This war is being fought in WW1 style trench warfare, not WW2 mechanized warfare.
There are lots of videos showing small localized mechanized assaults consisting of a few tanks and APCs, there hasn't been a video showing large scale manuvering of mechanized forces in a really long time...so I believe that my question is legitimate, does Russia have mechanized units sitting in reserve that they can bring up to exploit a breakthrough in the Ukrianian lines. If Russia doesn't, what does that say about the state of their forces?
There are lots of videos showing small localized mechanized assaults consisting of a few tanks and APCs, there hasn't been a video showing large scale manuvering of mechanized forces in a really long time...so I believe that my question is legitimate, does Russia have mechanized units sitting in reserve that they can bring up to exploit a breakthrough in the Ukrianian lines. If Russia doesn't, what does that say about the state of their forces?
Posted on 1/29/25 at 11:04 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 1/29/25 at 11:19 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
What are cypher, Citizen, and Chrome going to do? Sent to the front in cuffs?
The money received from interest on seized Russian funds (almost all in Belgium) already took care of that need.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 1:28 am to John Barron
quote:
Zelensky proposed sending all teachers from military lyceums and universities to the front.
What a disgusting little weasel he is
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:04 am to CitizenK
quote:
The money received from interest on seized Russian funds (almost all in Belgium) already took care of that need.
More propaganda swallowed up by this thread. It was US taxpayer dollars.
A loan that Blinken paid with Russian funds, from interest, as "security".
One of the items of a stop to this mess will be a return of Russia's funds, the same we did with Iran, in cash....with interest. Who you think will come up with that interest, Ukraine??? Nope, thats why ole Blinken and the EU dreamed up this loan nonsense when they knew the American people would not allow another giveaway. Communism at its best right here in the good ole USA.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:11 am to texag7
quote:
quote:
A video appeared online showing soldiers from the 155th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine being taken to the front line in handcuffs so that they would not escape.
That is disgusting.
Several stories about this "brigade" and the wasted training by NATO. And ukraine posts it as if it is Russian troops, you guys on this thread are so sad.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 5:27 am to trinidadtiger
I see the Economist wrote a story about the real situation for ukraine. It is a sure sign Europe will offer little going forward to continue to invest in an absolute disaster at this point.
Trump will stop the funding and save thousands of lives. ukraine never should have started this mess and the whole world sees the US as once again prodding a proxy to do its bidding.
cargo pants and his "hitler bunker" mentality. Sending teachers to the front to back up the old men he already sent. I guess the "ukranian youth" are next.
Turn down those thermostats boys, save some money to pay your taxes early, ole cargo pants needs the cash for spring plantings at his italian vineyard, while he basks in his Miami Beach penthouse.
Trump will stop the funding and save thousands of lives. ukraine never should have started this mess and the whole world sees the US as once again prodding a proxy to do its bidding.
cargo pants and his "hitler bunker" mentality. Sending teachers to the front to back up the old men he already sent. I guess the "ukranian youth" are next.
Turn down those thermostats boys, save some money to pay your taxes early, ole cargo pants needs the cash for spring plantings at his italian vineyard, while he basks in his Miami Beach penthouse.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 6:12 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Do you watch or pay attention to any of the video that is released daily showing what is happening on the ground? This war is being fought in WW1 style trench warfare, not WW2 mechanized warfare.
There are lots of videos showing small localized mechanized assaults consisting of a few tanks and APCs, there hasn't been a video showing large scale manuvering of mechanized forces in a really long time...so I believe that my question is legitimate, does Russia have mechanized units sitting in reserve that they can bring up to exploit a breakthrough in the Ukrianian lines. If Russia doesn't, what does that say about the state of their forces?
They are fighting a style of warfare not conducive to the use of mechanized units, like you said. And you think because they aren't using them right now, when the situation doesn't warrant it, that they just don't have the units at all?
that's your thesis? It's pretty commonly known that they lost a ton of vehicles in the first part of the war, as did Ukraine. It's also known they aren't out and have factories building them (though I imagine at a slow pace compared to what the West could do).
Posted on 1/30/25 at 6:15 am to trinidadtiger
Random Tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
In Romania, a pro-Russian presidential candidate, Calin Georgescu, called Ukraine a "fictional state" and that after the war with Russia, its territories will be divided among neighboring countries
“The world is changing. Borders will change. Moreover, if borders change, where will we stand? We have Northern Bukovina—an interest. We have Budjak, we have Northern Maramure?—right? From the former… what was it called… Transcarpathia! Then there are the Hungarians… Lviv, which will remain with the Poles, and Malorossiya,” Georgescu stated.
LINK
quote:
The EU is considering resuming purchases of russian gas as part of the Ukraine deal, — the Financial Times reports.
According to the newspaper, EU officials are discussing the option of resuming purchases of russian gas.
This, according to them, could reduce energy prices in Europe, encourage moscow to negotiate and create conditions for a ceasefire.
LINK
quote:
Russian war correspondent Roma Sapozhnikov, whom I’ve been following for almost three years, became SUDDENLY shocked by the incredibly short time it takes for the so-called "heroes of the SMO" to sign a contract and die. "Just eight days from signing to death", Roman complains.
LINK
Posted on 1/30/25 at 6:17 am to CitizenK
Based on how most pro-ukraine stories age, It would be the least shocking thing ever if we are reading articles in 5 years about how the "seized Russian funds" either didn't actually exist at all, some of them have to be returned, or if the amount was greatly exaggerated.
Posted on 1/30/25 at 7:31 am to VolSquatch
russian terrorism update...
13 injured, including children, in Russian attack on Kramatorsk
by Tim Zadorozhnyy January 30, 2025 1:37 PM
Russian forces attacked the city of Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, injuring at least 13 people, including two children, Governor Vadym Filashkin said on Jan. 30.
According to preliminary information, the victims include an 8-year-old boy and a 7-year-old girl. Local authorities are assessing the aftermath of the attack.
Filashkin did not specify the weapon Russia used.
Russian artillery and aerial strikes against Donetsk Oblast settlements occur daily, frequently resulting in civilian casualties.
The Kyiv Independent
Two couples were killed in a Russian attack on a high-rise apartment building in Sumy.
Ukrinform
13 injured, including children, in Russian attack on Kramatorsk
by Tim Zadorozhnyy January 30, 2025 1:37 PM
Russian forces attacked the city of Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, injuring at least 13 people, including two children, Governor Vadym Filashkin said on Jan. 30.
According to preliminary information, the victims include an 8-year-old boy and a 7-year-old girl. Local authorities are assessing the aftermath of the attack.
Filashkin did not specify the weapon Russia used.
Russian artillery and aerial strikes against Donetsk Oblast settlements occur daily, frequently resulting in civilian casualties.
The Kyiv Independent
Two couples were killed in a Russian attack on a high-rise apartment building in Sumy.
Ukrinform
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If tweet fails to load, click here. This post was edited on 1/30/25 at 7:42 am
Posted on 1/30/25 at 7:46 am to VolSquatch
quote:
So Ukraine, with the backing of the entire west (the greatest military alliance the world has ever seen), is losing to an army that you claim has no mechanized units?
But at one time the Russians had armored units. They have been grinded down.
This post was edited on 1/30/25 at 7:50 am
Posted on 1/30/25 at 8:17 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Do you have an actual issue with the premise
Yes. The idea that Russia will soon "break out" and their advance will accelerate is flawed. I don't believe that will ever happen. Because a break out and rapid advance can only occur with mechanized units. Russia is essentially out of anything mechanical. No BMPs. No MBTs. No APCs. They're down to trucks and Chinese golf carts.
Any armor the Russians bring forward is immediately smoked by FPV drones, and then has artillery delivered mines placed in front and behind it. It's stuck while waiting to be destroyed.
Plus Ukraine has hundreds of mobile towed 105mm artillery pieces that can be brought to within 10 miles of any "break out" and saturate the oncoming troops with cluster munitions. They can rapidly advance over open ground while being observed and showered with air burst cluster shells. It's a death sentence.
quote:
or just that he said it too early before?
The fact that he's been wrong about it like a dozen times before also reinforces and confirms my position. His premise is flawed and has even less of a chance of happening in the future as it did in the past.
quote:
If you disagree I'd love to hear why.
Russia has increased their sign on bonuses by 10x in the past two years. Yet their recruitment rate has been plummeting for 6 months. They've called in more North Koreans. They're scraping the bottom of the barrel for idiots who want to die for $30,000.
Even in a shithole like Russia that money doesn't mean what it used to. Russia isn't known for innovation. They don't adapt or adopt change quickly. And they're not just running out of men. They're running out of ideas.
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