re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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He was fooled and almost all of us were fooled. People largely didn’t know that Fauci was the biggest mass murderer since Mao when Trump left office. Yeah, I’m pissed he gave him a medal, but he can make up for that by giving him a noose.

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Within the last year... just because you apparently did not swallow the last dose.

Fox News interviews Mike Pompeo regarding Ukraine and Trump's approach.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6367522662112

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The Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) is directed to resume consideration of pending applications to export American liquefied natural gas (LNG) to countries without a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States in accordance with the Natural Gas Act.

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Irony aside, with this move Trump is taking down a Biden-era barrier to supplying LNG to Europe.

Here's a list of countries that have FTA's with the US:

Australia
Bahrain
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Israel
Jordan
Korea
Mexico
Morocco
Nicaragua
Oman
Panama
Peru
Singapore

The significance of this list is who is not on it - the Europeans.

US Free Trade Agreements are designed to prevent tariffs and other impediments to trade with the US. But tariff-free trade is definitely not in the European tradition. The amount of EU trade protection laws is vast, reflecting the fact that historically, tariffs have been the only area of complete agreement between the political left and right. There are entire industries dedicated to helping their clients navigate the (quite literally) millions of rules.

So the Biden administration intended to use the leverage of US LNG exports to the EU to break down this trade barrier regime. We won't go into detail as to why this was a bad idea, but as CitizenK has pointed out, it clearly was on multiple levels. It's even questionable that the EU could roll back some of these trade laws if they wanted to. They would be fighting both sides of the aisle so to speak. Just ask the present trade negotiators of the UK...

Trump has taken the view that we all should live so long as to see US-EU trade negotiations result in any significant result. More importantly, this will put us back on track to permanently replace Russian gas with US/Canadian gas in Europe. The desired agreement will be to guarantee these imports against later competion from pipeline gas originating in the Middle East, North Africa, Ukraine or (under a new regime) Russia. Minimum percentages of gas consumed by the EU to have US origin.

Looking into the future, the only guarantee against further Russian aggression post-Putin will be by limiting their petroleum exports. Thus controlling their revenue. Severely controlling. By substituting non-Russian oil and gas into the European markets this can be done. Sanctions on India and China can clean up the remaining revenue, but the European market will make or break the Russian economy.

I tend to agree with Mornganthau's plan in this application, but that would just lead to another Putin. So keeping a firm hand on the Russian economy by this method, and adjusting the valve if they get froggy, will be best going forward.

Reuters:

Exclusive: Putin growing concerned by Russia’s economy, as Trump pushes for Ukraine deal

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MOSCOW, Jan 23 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin has grown increasingly concerned about distortions in Russia's wartime economy, just as Donald Trump pushes for an end to the Ukraine conflict, five sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters.

Russia's economy, driven by exports of oil, gas and minerals, grew robustly over the past two years despite multiple rounds of Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

But domestic activity has become strained in recent months by labour shortages and high interest rates introduced to tackle inflation, which has accelerated under record military spending.

That has contributed to the view within a section of the Russian elite that a negotiated settlement to the war is desirable, according to two of the sources familiar with thinking in the Kremlin.

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Russia's $2.2 trillion economy had until recently shown remarkable endurance during the war, and Putin has praised top economic officials and business for circumventing the most stringent Western sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.

After contracting in 2022, Russia's GDP grew faster than the European Union and the United States in 2023 and 2024. This year, however, the central bank and the International Monetary Fund forecast sub-1.5% growth, although the government projects a slightly rosier outlook.

Inflation has edged toward double digits despite the central bank hiking the benchmark interest rate to 21% in October.

"There are some issues here, namely inflation, a certain overheating of the economy," Putin said in an annual news conference on Dec. 19. "The government and the central bank are already tasked with bringing the tempo down," he said.

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Putin believes key war goals have already been met, including control of land that connects mainland Russia to Crimea, and weakening Ukraine's military, said one of the sources familiar with thinking in the Kremlin.

The Russian president also recognizes the strain the war is putting on the economy, the source said, citing "really big problems" such as the impact of the high interest rate on non-military businesses and industry.

Russia has hiked defence spending to a post-Soviet high of 6.3% of GDP this year, accounting for a third of budget expenditure. The spending has been inflationary. Along with wartime labour shortages, it has driven wages higher.
On top of that, the government has sought higher tax revenues to reduce the fiscal deficit.

Vyugin, the former deputy governor, said sustained high rates would put pressure on the balance sheets of businesses and banks.

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Putin's frustration was evident at a Kremlin meeting with business leaders the evening of Dec. 16, where he scolded top economic officials, according to two of the sources, who have knowledge of discussions about the economy in the Kremlin and government.

One of the sources, who was briefed after the meeting, was told Putin was visibly displeased after hearing private investment was being cut because of the cost of credit.

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Yet another video of Russians proudly videoing themselves executing Ukrainian POWs. This war continues to be a fight between civilization and primitive barbarism. This is what our resident Putin bros are defending:

LINK

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Yet another video of Russians proudly videoing themselves executing Ukrainian POWs. This war continues to be a fight between civilization and primitive barbarism. This is what our resident Putin bros are defending:

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Both sides are factually on video doing this. Who gives a shite

from the Reuters article:

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Reuters has previously reported that Putin is ready to discuss ceasefire options with Trump but that Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine must be accepted and that Ukraine must drop its bid to join the U.S-led NATO military alliance.

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Again, the primary issue in any negotiation will be the sanctions. If Trump wishes to ease these limits on Russian revenue, all we can expect will be a pause in the fighting. If the sanctions are kept in place and enforced, Putin will not be able to restart the war. And eventually the Ukrainians will take back their land and obtain membership in NATO. When the Ukrainian version of the Little Green Men reappear, the Russians will not have the ability to stop them. And NATO will look the other way just as they did when the Little Green Men first appeared in 2014.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
23 January 2025

On 17 January 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian signed a new 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement.

Russia and Iran's partnership has almost certainly been driven by mutual security and economic interests, with both states growing closer since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia has remained reliant on Iranian military support as the war in Ukraine has continued. However, a level of mistrust remains and tensions in the relationship will highly likely present obstacles to the expansion of their cooperation.

The agreement is part of a wider framework of cooperation between the two states across various sectors, almost certainly representing a commitment to strengthen bilateral ties. It covers cooperation across defence and security, economy, trade, transportation, energy, technology, information and cyberspace security. In contrast to Russia's agreements with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Belarus, the Russia-Iran agreement does not include a mutual defence clause.

The agreement highly likely provides a legal framework for further Iranian-Russian cooperation, formalising existing and future collaboration efforts. However, it is unlikely to represent any significant uplift to the partnership or materially expand the scope of their current cooperation.

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It doesn't make much sense that Trump would exaggerate numbers for negotiation purposes. Do you not think that Putin knows exactly how many casualties Russia has incurred?

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Sure it does. Russia has a huge propaganda campaign but their news isn't on total lockdown either. Russians can see what people like Trump say, and when Trump says that those who might not trust the Russian government might believe him. The audience isn't Putin or anyone who actually knows the numbers, its everyone else in Russia who doesn't. Social pressure from within is still pressure.