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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/12/24 at 5:49 pm to Lee B
Posted on 12/12/24 at 5:49 pm to Lee B
quote:
Zelensky has a 41% overall approval rating... that's the new reality for National leaders in this day and age.
Maybe among you leftists and neocons.
It's about 16-22% among the people in Ukraine.
1
Posted on 12/12/24 at 6:04 pm to AU86
Posted on 12/12/24 at 7:24 pm to cypher
ISW Update Dec 12
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russia has reportedly reached an agreement with select elements of the Syrian opposition about control over Russian military bases in Syria, but it remains unclear if the alleged agreement ensures the security of Russia's bases in Syria in the long-term.
Russia is reportedly moving four ships from Russian ports to Syria, possibly to facilitate evacuations — further demonstrating the Kremlin's current cautious response to the developing situation in Syria.
Ukrainian officials denied Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's claim that Ukraine rejected his offer to mediate a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner of war (POW) exchange with Russia.
People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping continues to provide Kremlin officials with a platform from which to articulate their uncompromising demands on Ukrainian sovereignty.
India continues to preserve and enhance its economic relations with Russia despite recent efforts to reduce its reliance on Russia as a security partner.
Russian authorities are set to equate the violation of Russian censorship laws with extremism and terrorism, furthering the Kremlin's effort to establish a pseudo-state ideology.
Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the Russian “Golden Star” Medal to a military correspondent for the first time since World War II as the Kremlin continues to use state awards to co-opt milbloggers and gain control over the Russian information space.
Actors affiliated with Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) likely assassinated the Deputy General Designer and Functional Software Department Head of the Russian Rosatom-owned “Mars” design bureau Mikhail Shatsky in Russia on December 12.
Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and in the Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions.
Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Svatove.
The Russian military command's efforts to ensure operational security amongst Russian forces continue to draw ire from select milbloggers, who derided these efforts as disruptive overreach.
Posted on 12/12/24 at 9:51 pm to cypher
Don't several of these rebel groups in Syria hate the Russians? Russia has been attacking them for years.
I suspect that X post is correct; Russia won't be able to keep the bases operational, regardless of any agreement.
I suspect that X post is correct; Russia won't be able to keep the bases operational, regardless of any agreement.
This post was edited on 12/12/24 at 9:59 pm
Posted on 12/13/24 at 4:31 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Don't several of these rebel groups in Syria hate the Russians? Russia has been attacking them for years.
Yeah, there are too many people in Syria who hate Russia and can easily get their hands on some drones. Even if Russia could get official agreement to keep the bases (which I still question), how would they have any real security?
Posted on 12/13/24 at 7:11 am to Chromdome35
quote:
suspect that X post is correct; Russia won't be able to keep the bases operational, regardless of any agreement.
Thats why the deal would have to include Russia assisting them in consolidating power. Making a deal with people who might get overthrown in 2 years makes no sense for the Russians, and just giving them those bases for free doesn't make sense for HTS either.
Posted on 12/13/24 at 7:13 am to GOP_Tiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
13 December 2024
Russian officials almost certainly consider the collapse of the Assad regime, its former Syrian ally, to be both detrimental to its regional strategic interests, and to its image as a security guarantor.
The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the Ukraine conflict to be their primary concern. Russia's prioritisation of the Ukraine conflict likely degraded Russia's ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.
Russia's primary aim in Syria is to maintain control of its military bases - its largest overseas naval base at Tartus and its airbase in Khmeimim - to enable Russian strategic access to the Near East and Mediterranean Sea, supporting its aims in Africa and allowing for military power projection. The collapse of the Assad regime has almost certainly increased the risk to the security of these assets.
In the short term, Russia will highly likely seek to repair its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all relevant actors involved, in efforts to ensure security guarantees for its military bases.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
13 December 2024
Russian officials almost certainly consider the collapse of the Assad regime, its former Syrian ally, to be both detrimental to its regional strategic interests, and to its image as a security guarantor.
The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the Ukraine conflict to be their primary concern. Russia's prioritisation of the Ukraine conflict likely degraded Russia's ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.
Russia's primary aim in Syria is to maintain control of its military bases - its largest overseas naval base at Tartus and its airbase in Khmeimim - to enable Russian strategic access to the Near East and Mediterranean Sea, supporting its aims in Africa and allowing for military power projection. The collapse of the Assad regime has almost certainly increased the risk to the security of these assets.
In the short term, Russia will highly likely seek to repair its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all relevant actors involved, in efforts to ensure security guarantees for its military bases.
Posted on 12/13/24 at 7:22 am to cypher
Posted on 12/13/24 at 7:37 am to cypher
Has anybody posted the new Task and Purpose video? He travels into Ukrainian occupied Russia with Ukraine forces. Definitely worth watching.
Posted on 12/13/24 at 9:38 am to Diseasefreeforall
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
Dec. 12, 2024
This PDA package, which has an estimated value of $500 million, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including: air defense capabilities; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
Light tactical vehicles;
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Tube-launched, Optically guided, Wire-tracked (TOW) missiles;
Small arms ammunition;
Demolitions equipment and munitions; and
Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
Dec. 12, 2024
This PDA package, which has an estimated value of $500 million, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including: air defense capabilities; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
Light tactical vehicles;
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Tube-launched, Optically guided, Wire-tracked (TOW) missiles;
Small arms ammunition;
Demolitions equipment and munitions; and
Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
Posted on 12/13/24 at 11:10 am to cypher
Posted on 12/13/24 at 11:10 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
No one is surprised to see you with egg on your face, bright yellow yolk dripping off your nose.
1) It hasn't happened yet, and it might not, so no egg on my face right now.
2) When I'm wrong, I admit it. When have you done that in this thread?
It increasingly appears that I was correct in the first place, and the Bloomberg report was incorrect in reporting that Russia was about to lock up long-term access to its Syrian bases.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 12/13/24 at 11:27 am to GOP_Tiger
In addition to all the other problems that we've talked about, there's also the inescapable fact that Russia doesn't have the money that Syria would want.
Russia mostly "paid" Assad with "military protection" -- even though that didn't work. But HTS and Joulani would want real money, and Russia is already going broke. HTS/Joulani would want to be paid in dollars, and Russia 100% cannot do that.
Russia mostly "paid" Assad with "military protection" -- even though that didn't work. But HTS and Joulani would want real money, and Russia is already going broke. HTS/Joulani would want to be paid in dollars, and Russia 100% cannot do that.
Posted on 12/13/24 at 11:36 am to GOP_Tiger
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. I'll bet that Ukraine has some grain that they could send to Syria.
Posted on 12/13/24 at 11:48 am to GOP_Tiger
I would bet if there was any way to ambush those Russian planes returning troops to Russia, Ukraine would think of a way.
Posted on 12/13/24 at 12:02 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 12/13/24 at 1:40 pm to texag7
quote:
It’s definitely much higher than that. You’re just peddling Russia propaganda for Putin.
Where are these beloved leaders?
EDIT -
Or did I misunderstand you? Are you saying Zelensky's approval rating is much higher than 41% in Ukraine?
This post was edited on 12/13/24 at 5:12 pm
Posted on 12/13/24 at 3:32 pm to Lee B
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. It's almost like it's smart to use common sense in evaluating these situations!
Posted on 12/13/24 at 4:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
Looks like Russia does a much better job of leaving Syria than the US did leaving Afghanistan
Posted on 12/13/24 at 5:26 pm to GOP_Tiger
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