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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:31 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:31 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
But you could use any policy in place of what you're saying. Nothing about what you said uniquely applies to the restrictions Biden just lifted.
True but you said that you did not see how the restrictions that Biden just lifted could be used as a negotiating tactic. I am not saying that it will be used. I am just showing one example of how it could be used.
1
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:37 pm to WeeWee
I said he took an escalatory measure off the table for Trump. Part of the reason these restrictions have been slow-walked is because its hard to put the genie back in the bottle once its out.
So yes, he did take an escalatory measure off the table by doing this now. There is only so far we can realistically go without getting involved ourselves, and Biden just pushed us closer to that point as a lame duck.
Is it the biggest deal ever? Probably not. Was it needlessly stupid? Like a lot of things this admin has done, yes.
So yes, he did take an escalatory measure off the table by doing this now. There is only so far we can realistically go without getting involved ourselves, and Biden just pushed us closer to that point as a lame duck.
Is it the biggest deal ever? Probably not. Was it needlessly stupid? Like a lot of things this admin has done, yes.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:51 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
If you honestly believe that and are correct, then you must admit there is a high likelihood that this ends with Russia in Kyiv or at least within striking distance of it. And just for clarity, by 'high" I mean 20-30% vs the 1-5% I think most people would put it near.
Russia has conquered 1% of Ukraine this year. They are still struggling to kick Ukraine out of the Kursk region of Russia.
No, I see zero possibility of Russia getting anywhere near Kyiv. They will run out of money and will run out of armored vehicles way, way before that.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:57 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia has conquered 1% of Ukraine this year. They are still struggling to kick Ukraine out of the Kursk region of Russia.
No, I see zero possibility of Russia getting anywhere near Kyiv. They will run out of money and will run out of armored vehicles way, way before that.
Then Russia is going to negotiate
There is a not-insignificant chance that Ukraine won't have enough people to stop Russia at some point. If Russia won't negotiate unless stopped, then that naturally ends in Kyiv.
If Russia has 3-5 years left in them per an article you posted I'm not sure Ukraine can hold out that long.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 3:07 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Was it needlessly stupid?
It was not needless stupid. It was needed. Unfortunately it was needed over a year ago to have the most affect. However it can still have affect. Especially since Britain and France have given Ukraine permission to use their missiles to strike Russian targets. If the reports of Ukraine having 100 of the land version of the Neptune missile are true then they have the ability to hit Moscow with cruise missiles. The western missiles do not have the range to hit Moscow but they can be used to attack Russian air defense to clear a path for the Neptunes. Russia's road and rail network is setup to where they can't move anything from the east to the west of the country without it going through Moscow so any disruption of road and rail lines in Moscow would have an affect on the fighting. I am not saying that this will happen but just an example of how this move is not stupid. It also allows western cruise missiles to be finally be used against the KSB.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 3:21 pm to VolSquatch
Trump's advisor believes allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with ATACMS missiles is a "step up escalation ladder"
Oleh Pavliuk, Anastasia Protz — Monday, 18 November 2024, 20:51
Florida Congressman Michael Waltz, Donald Trump's National Security Adviser, believes that allowing Ukraine the use of ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory threatens to further escalate the war.
Source: European Pravda with reference to Voice of America journalist Ostap Yarysh
Details: Waltz said that the Biden administration did not inform him in advance about the decision to allow Ukraine to launch long-range strikes against Russia.
Quote from Waltz: "It's another step up the escalation ladder, and nobody knows where this is going. North Korea is unleashing ballistic missiles, artillery, and now tens of thousands of soldiers. The [Biden] administration responds by lifting this restriction. North Korea sends more soldiers. South Korea is now saying it may get engaged."
Further, as an example of escalation, the adviser of US President-elect Trump mentioned Iran’s sale of oil to China, which is used to send missiles and drones to Russia, "then hitting Ukrainian critical infrastructure".
Quote from Waltz: "So this is a development, but it’s a tactical one [Biden's permission – ed.]. President[-elect] Trump is talking grand strategy here: How do we get both sides to the table to end this war, what’s the framework for a deal, and who is sitting at that table?"
Ukrainska Pravda
Oleh Pavliuk, Anastasia Protz — Monday, 18 November 2024, 20:51
Florida Congressman Michael Waltz, Donald Trump's National Security Adviser, believes that allowing Ukraine the use of ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory threatens to further escalate the war.
Source: European Pravda with reference to Voice of America journalist Ostap Yarysh
Details: Waltz said that the Biden administration did not inform him in advance about the decision to allow Ukraine to launch long-range strikes against Russia.
Quote from Waltz: "It's another step up the escalation ladder, and nobody knows where this is going. North Korea is unleashing ballistic missiles, artillery, and now tens of thousands of soldiers. The [Biden] administration responds by lifting this restriction. North Korea sends more soldiers. South Korea is now saying it may get engaged."
Further, as an example of escalation, the adviser of US President-elect Trump mentioned Iran’s sale of oil to China, which is used to send missiles and drones to Russia, "then hitting Ukrainian critical infrastructure".
Quote from Waltz: "So this is a development, but it’s a tactical one [Biden's permission – ed.]. President[-elect] Trump is talking grand strategy here: How do we get both sides to the table to end this war, what’s the framework for a deal, and who is sitting at that table?"
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 11/18/24 at 3:45 pm to WeeWee
quote:
It was not needless stupid.
For US interests, which are all I care about, it was needless stupid. I don't care about what is best for Ukraine unless that aligns with what is best for the US. In this case, I don't believe it does.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 6:13 pm to VolSquatch
The US has long had a trade surplus with Ukraine. They are a good trading partner.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 7:35 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
So yes, he did take an escalatory measure off the table by doing this now. There is only so far we can realistically go without getting involved ourselves, and Biden just pushed us closer to that point as a lame duck.
No. Trump can do a lot more. Russia has been sending messages that Trump is weak and that he is their boy. They’ve broadcast nudes of his wife and spouted off about how his re-election is good for their position internationaly. If Trump is truly weak, he will just bend the knee to Russia. If he sees himself as strong, then he can assert significant additional pressure on Russia.
I’m no fan of Trump’s. However, if he is half as strong as his followers believe, he has a tremendous opportunity to assert global strength. Russia is much weaker than the last time Trump was president. He can go from seeking attention from Putin to dictating terms. I hope he decides to project strength. That would be good for America in the long run.
This post was edited on 11/18/24 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 11/18/24 at 8:01 pm to VolSquatch
Seems like Ukraine is going to face a soldier crisis pretty soon. Russia just has to wait it out.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 8:27 pm to TigersSEC2010
ISW Update Nov 18th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian officials continued to use threatening rhetoric as part of efforts to deter the United States from publicly authorizing Ukraine's use of US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in Kursk Oblast. This US authorization, if officially confirmed, would notably be a mild response to Russia's escalatory introduction of North Korean troops as active combatants in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Putin's introduction of North Korea as a new belligerent in his invasion of Ukraine was a major escalation. Allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against legitimate military targets in Russian territory in accord with all international laws and laws of armed conflict is a very limited response and cannot reasonably be characterized as an escalation in itself.
French and British sources clarified on November 18 that the reported US permissions regarding Ukraine's ability to use ATACMS for limited strikes within Russia do not inherently extend to Ukraine's ability to use French and UK-provided SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russia.
The Kremlin continues to state its unwillingness to accept any compromises, including those that would "freeze" the conflict along the current frontline – further demonstrating the Kremlin's insistence on complete Ukraine capitulation.
Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, in Kupyansk, west of Kreminna, and in the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar directions.
The Kremlin is continuing to militarize different levels of the Russian government by expanding the "Time of Heroes" program that aims to place veterans of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in positions in local, regional, and federal governments.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) illegally conscripted Ukrainian youth in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts as part of Russia's Fall 2024 conscription cycle.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 9:11 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
Seems like Ukraine is going to face a soldier crisis pretty soon. Russia just has to wait it out.
But they aren’t waiting it out. They are throwing more men into the fray with less and less armor and artillery,
It’s as if they want things finished sooner than later. Why is that? Why not cut up Ukrsine from a distance. Why not cut em s a small piece at a time in soft spots rather than these all out assaults?
Posted on 11/18/24 at 9:54 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
Seems like Ukraine is going to face a soldier crisis pretty soon. Russia just has to wait it out.
No, Ukraine is going to fix its manpower issues --most of which resulted from the delays in western arms shipments.
Just now:
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Posted on 11/19/24 at 3:06 am to cypher
quote:So we have a weenie playing politics as Trump's National Security Adviser. Just taking orders...
Quote from Waltz: "It's another step up the escalation ladder, and nobody knows where this is going. North Korea is unleashing ballistic missiles, artillery, and now tens of thousands of soldiers. The [Biden] administration responds by lifting this restriction. North Korea sends more soldiers. South Korea is now saying it may get engaged."
Posted on 11/19/24 at 4:11 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
No, Ukraine is going to fix its manpower issues --most of which resulted from the delays in western arms shipments
So they have more soldiers than they can equip?
Posted on 11/19/24 at 4:56 am to DMAN1968
quote:
So they have more soldiers than they can equip?
Always have, since the start of the war. I mean, Ukraine can equip them with a gun and a helmet, but it can't back them up with artillery and cavalry, or even mortars.
So, a better phrasing would be to say that they have more infantry than they can properly support in a combined arms environment.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 4:59 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
So we have a weenie playing politics as Trump's National Security Adviser. Just taking orders...
Eh, I think that this is just political posturing.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 5:01 am to GOP_Tiger
This appears to be the first use of ATACMS in Russia.
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Posted on 11/19/24 at 5:53 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 11/19/24 at 6:30 am to TBoy
quote:
No. Trump can do a lot more.
I didn't say he couldn't. I said Biden took an escalatory measure off the table, which he clearly did, and that there is only so far we will realistically go, which is clearly true.
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