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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/18/24 at 11:02 am to CitizenK
Posted on 11/18/24 at 11:02 am to CitizenK
Not sure I agree but TIFWIW
quote:
Paul Warburg
Paul Warburg
1 hour ago
There’s a lot of rhetoric flying around right now about how Biden is trying to “escalate the war in Ukraine before Trump takes office.”
Personally, if you watched my recent video on how Trump will impact Ukraine, I can’t help but wonder if in reality this was possibly a coordinated decision between Biden and Trump, who met in the White House and discussed Ukraine at length earlier this week.
This would give Trump the “bone” he needs to blame the escalation on Biden if he has to go back on his campaign promise about ending the war - something that every analyst observing concurs that Trump won’t be able to do, with or without an escalation.
Now, if Trump has to increase military aid to Ukraine when his ‘peace plan’ fails, he will be able to tell everyone “It’s Biden’s fault” and get them to reluctantly follow suit. This is a possibility I explored in-depth in one of my recent videos, and the idea of Trump being forced to increase aid rather than removing it has more legs than you might think.
And from what I’ve read of the Biden administration, it’s not inconceivable that they would allow themselves to be this kind of ‘fall guy’ for Trump to help this happen if it meant a better outcome for Ukraine, especially since Biden won’t ever be up for reelection again. Just read about the internal conversations for yourself in the new book “War” by Bob Woodward.
Finally, if you watched my video from last night, you’ll know that this timing between the election and Trump taking office is strategic to allow the U.S. a moment in time to give this permission to Ukraine without Russia being able to do anything substantial in return. It’s a “Goldilocks moment.” There’s a hundred reasons to leverage this moment in time beyond just trying to make a bigger mess for Trump.
So personally, I’m not losing any sleep at all over the high-emotion World War III rhetoric. But I’m highly curious to see what will happen next :)
For more details on those thoughts, check out my two latest videos on long range missile permissions and what the Trump presidency means for Ukraine.
1
Posted on 11/18/24 at 11:07 am to G The Tiger Fan
A lot of the supposed MAGA right-wingers here are starting to sound like Chunk Yogurt.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/18/24 at 11:10 am to G The Tiger Fan
quote:
The side that is led by a Communist dictator and is supported by Iran and North Korea is trying to save the Christians, don't you see??
Well, I think he sees Ukraine as just "Jews," so...
Posted on 11/18/24 at 11:15 am to Lee B
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
18 November 2024
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine reached a new high during October 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,354 per day, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. This is the second straight month that Russian Forces have suffered new war high average daily losses. The average daily losses for the first 12 days of November 2024 is 1,498, indicating that this upward trajectory is likely to continue.
October 2024 has been the most costly month of the war for Russia with a total of 41,980 losses reported by the Ukraine General Staff, compared to the previous high of 39,110 recorded in May 2024. Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 700,000 casualties. Over the past month, Russia has increased the tempo of offensive operations, highly likely attempting to increase the pressure on Ukrainian lines as they seek to push Ukrainian Forces back on several fronts including Kursk, east of the Oskil River, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Vuhledar. Russia will highly likely continue to experience high casualty rates over the reminder of the year with continued dismounted infantry attacks on multiple axes throughout winter.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
18 November 2024
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine reached a new high during October 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,354 per day, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. This is the second straight month that Russian Forces have suffered new war high average daily losses. The average daily losses for the first 12 days of November 2024 is 1,498, indicating that this upward trajectory is likely to continue.
October 2024 has been the most costly month of the war for Russia with a total of 41,980 losses reported by the Ukraine General Staff, compared to the previous high of 39,110 recorded in May 2024. Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 700,000 casualties. Over the past month, Russia has increased the tempo of offensive operations, highly likely attempting to increase the pressure on Ukrainian lines as they seek to push Ukrainian Forces back on several fronts including Kursk, east of the Oskil River, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Vuhledar. Russia will highly likely continue to experience high casualty rates over the reminder of the year with continued dismounted infantry attacks on multiple axes throughout winter.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 11:57 am to cypher
Posted on 11/18/24 at 11:59 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Personally, if you watched my recent video on how Trump will impact Ukraine, I can’t help but wonder if in reality this was possibly a coordinated decision between Biden and Trump, who met in the White House and discussed Ukraine at length earlier this week.
As I said yesterday, I think that it's likely that this was coordinated, or at least that Trump approves. But I think that Warburg's reasoning is wrong -- it simply gives Trump more leverage to get Putin to come to the negotiating table.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 12:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But I think that Warburg's reasoning is wrong -- it simply gives Trump more leverage to get Putin to come to the negotiating table.
Biden has just taken an escalatory measure off the table for Trump, so he actually has less leverage by pretty much any measure and I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise.
It could have been coordinated between the two of them, though. I personally HIGHLY doubt it, but it could be.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 12:30 pm to VolSquatch
Russia is not going to negotiate until they're stopped. When Russia can no longer advance, then and only then will they negotiate.
Allowing use of US weapons in Kursk helps with that.
Allowing use of US weapons in Kursk helps with that.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 12:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
Biden probably gave Trump a heads up, but that’s it.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 12:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
Trump is not a tip-toe through the tulips kind of guy.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 1:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia is not going to negotiate until they're stopped. When Russia can no longer advance, then and only then will they negotiate.
Allowing use of US weapons in Kursk helps with that.
If you honestly believe that and are correct, then you must admit there is a high likelihood that this ends with Russia in Kyiv or at least within striking distance of it. And just for clarity, by 'high" I mean 20-30% vs the 1-5% I think most people would put it near.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 1:34 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
But I think that Warburg's reasoning is wrong -- it simply gives Trump more leverage to get Putin to come to the negotiating table.
Biden has just taken an escalatory measure off the table for Trump, so he actually has less leverage by pretty much any measure and I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise.
Simple. Trump could use the threat of putting restrictions back on the weapons if Zelensky is unwilling to negotiate and/or does not negotiate in good faith. Also he could use the promise of putting the restrictions back on if Putin does agree to negotiate and/or does negotiate in good faith.
Biden is a lame duck and how the war in Ukraine ends will affect his legacy. Trump can blame this escalation on Biden and then use it or not use it to negotiate without blowback on him. So I can see how the idea that Biden and Trump worked this out together is plausible. However, I do not believe they did. IMO there is too much bad blood between the two of them and their camps to work together on anything.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 1:45 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Simple. Trump could use the threat of putting restrictions back on the weapons if Zelensky is unwilling to negotiate and/or does not negotiate in good faith.
I don't think you do this to up your negotiating power with Zelensky
If Zelensky won't negotiate you tell him to kick fricking rocks
Posted on 11/18/24 at 1:51 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:18 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
there is a high likelihood that this ends with Russia in Kyiv or at least within striking distance of it
Define within striking distance of Kiev please.
Russia is already bombing and killing civilians there.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:18 pm to cypher
quote:
This morning, two key European undersea communications cables were attacked within hours of each other, leaving one severed and another damaged.
Unless there was a drunken anchor handler in the area, this sounds like the Ruskies are at work.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:20 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Simple. Trump could use the threat of putting restrictions back on the weapons if Zelensky is unwilling to negotiate and/or does not negotiate in good faith.
I don't think you do this to up your negotiating power with Zelensky
If Zelensky won't negotiate you tell him to kick fricking rocks
Well yeah but that is not the point of my post. The point of my post was to show how this could be used against both sides. Not that I think it will be used by both sides. Revoking approval for the transfer of the remaining F16s and/or stopping F16 pilot training is a much better stick for Trump to use if Zelensky does not negotiate in good faith.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:28 pm to doubleb
quote:
Define within striking distance of Kiev please.
Russia is already bombing and killing civilians there.
Whatever the operational distance is to be able to consistently and accurately do that, not just occasional strikes with lower accuracy.
Close enough to where people who have still been going to night clubs for the past couple years aren't going anymore and are thinking about leaving. Where Russia could cause major disruptions to daily life there if they choose to (and I suspect they would).
I'm not sure how the world would react if Russia started turning Kyiv into a parking lot.
Posted on 11/18/24 at 2:29 pm to WeeWee
But you could use any policy in place of what you're saying. Nothing about what you said uniquely applies to the restrictions Biden just lifted.
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