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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 8/18/24 at 3:35 pm to
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

quote:
The idea was to avoid the kind of escalation that would have Russia using tactical nuclear weapons.


Right. And that made sense early on in the conflict, when Russia was perceived to be much stronger than they actually were (and when they were stronger than they are now).

It also made sense to push for a unified NATO response, so the Biden administration didn't want to be too far out in front of Germany (remember the horrible German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht?).

So, through most of 2022, I defended the Biden administration's response, as there was logic in it, but the last eight or nine months is a different story, as those factors aren't in play anymore.


Actually, I keep seeing people say that the calculation is that the weaker Russia and its military seem/become, the more likely it is they will use tactical nukes...

Russians supposedly are taught that while Russia was kicking arse at liberating Asia from Japan at the end of WWII, the US was floundering and concluded it could not win and that's why they used nuclear weapons on Japan... which seems like a way to pre-program the population for nuclear weapons use to me.

I can't blame Biden for what really hurt Ukraine in the last 9 months, which was the denial of military aid by Congressional Republicans. That is why Russia gained ground, inflicted so many casualties and diminished Ukrainian morale. What would thing look like if that had not happened?

Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
1861 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 3:44 pm to
[quote]They have already bought 47 percent of Ukraine's land.[/qu

For hell's sake. Ukraine is about the size of Tx. Nobody owns 47% of the country.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:00 pm to
What if Ukraine dropped tactical nukes on Crimea and the Donbas?
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8590 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:07 pm to
Russia had severely depleted their reserves of Iskanders in the first 18 months of the war so I call bullshite on they have unlimited numbers of them. Of course they make more but they are not easy to make and replenish which is why you saw Russia go to using the Shaheed drones to augment the Iskanders that they had to ration. Ukraine will take $3 million for $50K any day.
This post was edited on 8/18/24 at 4:14 pm
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13312 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:10 pm to
quote:

For hell's sake. Ukraine is about the size of Tx. Nobody owns 47% of the country.


These Russian farm bot trolls are really running out of things to fantasize about.

"Black Rock already owns 47% of Ukraine" might be the single dumbest thing I have ever seen posted on this thread. And that's saying a lot.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

So what if Russia dropped a few tactical nukes on the Kursk area


Russia would take a huge political hit at both home and abroad.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8590 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:16 pm to
47% of Ukraine privately owned? Congratulations there have been some stupid fricking comments on this board but you might have taken the cake.You should win a prize for your stupidity.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42606 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

Russians supposedly are taught that while Russia was kicking arse at liberating Asia from Japan at the end of WWII, the US was floundering and concluded it could not win and that's why they used nuclear weapons on Japan...


US dropped nukes on Japan August 6 and 9. Russia declared war on Japan and attacked Mongolia on August 8.

Russia wasn’t kicking arse when we dropped the first bomb. Besides Japan was toast when Russia launched and fought under strength Japanese armies who had little armor or heavy weapons.
This post was edited on 8/18/24 at 4:30 pm
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:28 pm to
quote:

US dropped nukes on Japan August 6 and 9. Russia declared war on Japan and attacked Mongolia on August 8.

Russia wasn’t kicking arse when we dropped the first bomb. Besides Japan was toast when Rusdia launched and fought under strength Japanese armies who had little armor or heavy weapons.


When have historical facts ever mattered to Nationalist propaganda?
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:28 pm to
quote:

47% of Ukraine privately owned? Congratulations there have been some stupid fricking comments on this board but you might have taken the cake.You should win a prize for your stupidity.


He's spreading russian disinformation...

Disinformation, as if the head of BlackRock bought Ukrainian lands and banned the burial of military personnel
This post was edited on 8/18/24 at 4:34 pm
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:38 pm to
quote:

GDP


If the GDP figures are capturing something real, then why are they crushing us in actual production.

quote:

Ukraine lost five armored vehicles in an ambush at Giri, and they lost a couple of MRAPs in the north, but they have otherwise lost only a few vehicles. The operation has largely been without significant cost in men or materiel.



LINK

quote:

Out In The Open And On The Move In Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Forces Are Vulnerable—And Losing Lots Of Armored Vehicles


quote:

The ratio of equipment losses—heavy Ukrainian write-offs compared to relatively few Russian write-offs—is unusual. On average throughout Russia’s 29-month wider war on Ukraine, the Russians have lost many more vehicles than the Ukrainians.


quote:

But the Ukrainian maneuvers have exposed their tanks and infantry vehicles to Russian drones, artillery and ambushes. In the first nine days of the invasion, the Ukrainians lost four tanks and 41 infantry vehicles, according to one Oryx analyst. The losses have included a rare British-made Challenger 2 tank and several American-supplied Stryker fighting vehicles.

The attrition of infantry vehicles—including tracked fighting vehicles and wheeled personnel carriers—has been especially acute for the Ukrainian armed forces. They’re losing these valuable vehicles at almost double the normal rate. And where the average loss rate is for the entire 700-mile front of the wider war, those losses in Kursk are occurring along a 50-mile front.


Oryx is funded by either DC or London, and it was created to prop up the war, but it is true that the Ukraine losing a lot vehicles in Kursk. In the last two days they've lost 3 HIMARS, and an M270. And it's been a bad week in general, they lost a Patriot battery and an IRIS as well.

quote:

In contrast, Russia has already lost over 2000 POWs. In terms of KIA, they lost something like 450 when the Ryalsk column got blown up, and there's another video out there showing over a hundred dead in underground bunker.


Ryalsk was a single company, so maybe 140 and 150 people in total, of which, perhaps half died.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

In the last two days they've lost 3 HIMARS, and an M270.


You should really try simply reading the posts in this thread before you post stuff that just embarrasses you.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:52 pm to
The Economist

quote:

The order to move crackled over the radios at dawn on August 6th. Serhiy, a private in the 80th brigade, was among the first to emerge from the cover of the forest. By the time his unit crossed into Russia, supported by constant tank fire, the border had already been largely destroyed. “Our commanders didn’t spare a single round of artillery,” he says via voice messages from inside Russia’s Kursk region. Other Ukrainian troops report crossing the border on a wave of euphoria, with lines of prisoners almost immediately heading back in the other direction.

quote:

Western allies were also deliberately left in the dark, claims the source. “Syrsky had two previous operations undermined by the West. One was leaked to the Russians, and on another occasion, we were instructed to abort.” Limiting communication to a need-to-know basis enabled the Ukrainians to launch their attack before the Russians grasped what was happening. “They realised something was afoot but likely assumed we would need American approval for such a daring operation.” Having been presented with a fait accompli the West did not object.
quote:

General Syrsky is a pedant for detail. Yet while the first phase was planned meticulously the campaign is now developing in an ad hoc fashion. With the element of surprise lost, the Ukrainian advances have slowed. President Zelensky is still pushing for maximum progress, a source in the general staff says. But his top soldier is cautious, concentrating on expanding the flanks along the border to create more defensible lines. “Syrsky is no fool,” his confidante says. “He knows that rushing ahead risks the whole operation.” In recent days, an expanded Ukrainian contingent of 10,000-20,000 soldiers appears to be focused on establishing control on the southern bank of the Seim river to the north-west of Sudzha.


The whole thing is worth reading.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14807 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:54 pm to
Also don’t forget. Japan was reaching out to Russia to help with a peace deal. They weren't expecting Russia to declare war and attack Manchuria and the Japanese northern islands

I wonder how Asia would have been different today had the allies not pushed Russia to join in the war with Japan. The nukes should have still needed the war. And without Russia pushing through Manchuria and into Korea then no 38th parallel and likely no Korean War and no split Korea. (US and UK would have had post war control over Korea).

Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:55 pm to
Answer the first question, and then I'll indulge you
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 4:58 pm to
And they don't have any( supposedly) so if they did I would expect they would return the favor
This post was edited on 8/18/24 at 4:59 pm
Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
1861 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

The loss of so much valuable equipment may not worry Ukrainian planners—provided, of course, the strategic gains of the Kursk campaign justify the material cost.

If Jack Watling, an analyst for the Royal United Services Institute in London is correct in his assessment, Ukraine wants Kursk Oblast as a bargaining chip. As a bargaining chip, the oblast might be worth—so far—a few dozen armored vehicles.

“Politically, the purpose of the operation is to build leverage ahead of possible negotiations,” Watling wrote in The Guardian. “If Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency in November, the threat of withdrawing military-technical assistance is likely to force Kyiv to negotiate. The Ukrainian government wants to make sure that if it has to enter that process, it has things that Russia wants to trade for concessions.”

“The Ukrainian military, therefore, must take and hold a sizeable chunk of Russian land for the duration of potential negotiations,” Watling stressed.


From the article Ukraine may have a pretty good reason for the incursion.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
26468 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

I can't blame Biden for what really hurt Ukraine in the last 9 months, which was the denial of military aid by Congressional Republicans. That is why Russia gained ground, inflicted so many casualties and diminished Ukrainian morale. What would thing look like if that had not happened?


It was really dumb to hold Ukraine aid hostage to try and force an end to Biden's open border. Holding the "continuing resolution" hostage and shutting down the government would have been highly effective.

Biden's policies for Ukraine have been weak and a feckless trickle, trickle, trickle of aid. Well, at least he didn't give them blankets and MRE's and call it a day like Obama did.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

And they don't have any( supposedly) so if they did I would expect they would return the favor


If they had any, would Putin have invaded in the first place?
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 8/18/24 at 5:05 pm to
Possibly. They have the most on earth so, maybe.
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