re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Key Takeaways:

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successive operations with limited operational objectives that are far short of victory, but that in aggregate can achieve strategic objectives.

It is too early to assess the outcomes and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia and the ongoing Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine. The significance of these operations will not emerge in isolation, moreover, but they will matter in so far as they relate to a series of subsequent Russian and Ukrainian campaigns over time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command likely view maintaining the theater-wide initiative as a strategic imperative to win a war of attrition against Ukraine, and both the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and the Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine will impact whether Russian forces can retain the initiative in the short-term.

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast does not have long-term territorial objectives but instead aims to generate theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces.

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has already generated theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces, and subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will likely generate even greater pressures on Putin and the Russian military.

Russian forces will not be able to retain the initiative throughout eastern Ukraine indefinitely, and the culmination of Russian offensive operations will present Ukrainian forces with opportunities to contest the initiative further.

The Russian offensive operation to seize Pokrovsk is emblematic of the Russian approach to the war in Ukraine that embraces positional warfare for gradual creeping advances and seeks to win a war of attrition.

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast illustrates how Ukrainian forces can use maneuver warfare to offset Russian manpower and materiel advantages.

It is simply too early to draw dispositive conclusions about the lasting effects that the two very different Russian and Ukrainian efforts will have on the course of the war.

ISW offers these observations about the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and the months-long Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine to provide a balanced framework for assessing the significance of the current Russian and Ukrainian operations on the course of the entire war, which will remain uncertain for the foreseeable future.

Russia and Ukraine were reportedly planning to meet in Qatar in August 2024 to discuss a possible moratorium on Ukrainian and Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, but Russia temporarily postponed the summit after the start of the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.

Russia remains uninterested in any broader, meaningful negotiations regardless of Russia's willingness to entertain or agree to a possible moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.

Russia is almost certainly only considering a possible moratorium on energy strikes due to Ukraine's months-long strike campaign against Russian oil refineries — demonstrating a secondary effect of Ukraine's strike campaign.

Ukrainian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kreminna, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

The Russian government continues efforts to use the "Time of Heroes" program to integrate trusted Russian military veterans into Russian government roles.

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North Korea's Foreign Ministry condemned Ukraine's military operation in Russia's Kursk region and expressed support for Russia as it "seeks to defend its sovereignty."

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"Mined tomatoes": in the Chernihiv region, locals tie up vegetables with "Dangerous, mines!" signs.

Sappers urge not to use them in the household and to observe safety rules.

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Ukraine's Center for Combating Disinformation: Putin begs for talks

"Because Lukashenko's long speech is embedded in the fact that "the goal of the 'special military operation' has already been achieved."

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???????? On the AFU attack on an oil depot in the Rostov Region

At night, Ukrainian drones attacked an oil depot near Proletarsk to the southeast of Rostov-on-Don. The Combinat Kavkaz, which is a major fuel and lubricants storage site in the region and is under the jurisdiction of Rosreserva, came under attack.

At around 5 a.m., a Ukrainian UAV struck one of the fuel tanks, resulting in a fire. While extinguishing the fire, another enemy drone attacked the oil depot. Later, a fire train arrived in the area of the incident to extinguish the two fires. According to preliminary information, there are no fatalities or casualties.

??If in the last two weeks the main target of Ukrainian UAV attacks were military airfields in the Lipetsk, Voronezh and Nizhny Novgorod regions, then in the course of the new raid the enemy again returned to hitting fuel and energy complex facilities.

Given the high production volume of such devices, it is very naive to hope that the AFU will soon run out of them. Therefore, the only sure way to combat the raids is to destroy UAV groups in advance while still approaching the target, which is ensured by a complex of measures, from the creation of an appropriate control system to the use of light-engine aircraft and FPV drones as interceptors.

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"These "Nazi" are no longer there. Ukraine is de-Nazified", – Lukashenko gave another comical interview.

The main points of him:

??belarus "was forced" to move almost a third of its troops to the border with Ukraine, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine "keep more than 120,000 troops near the borders with the republic of belarus".

??putin and russian troops "will destroy the Ukrainian army" in the kursk region.

??Kyiv and moscow need to sit down at the negotiating table, otherwise "there will be an escalation that will end in the destruction of Ukraine."

??About 70% of Ukrainians "hate Zelenskyy" (where he got such data, he did not specify).

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?????????? New step towards banning the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church

The All-Ukrainian Council of Churches and Religious Organizations has supported the draft law on banning the activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which was earlier proposed to the Verkhovna Rada by the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The document passed its first reading last year.

At first glance, the said council has no legal authority, and such decisions are in fact of a recommendatory nature. In addition, the clergy of the UOC itself were not invited for discussion and explanations, which also does not add legitimacy to the situation.

However, even a few days before expressing open support, members of this structure discussed the bill with Zelensky, who called the decision "strengthening spiritual independence from Russia." They themselves stated that "no organization, religious or secular, centered in an 'aggressor country' can function in Ukraine."

?? There is nothing surprising at all in this situation. The main violin in this "council of churches" is played by sectarians from the PCU, Greek Catholics, Catholics and other Seventh-day Adventists who claim the property of the UOC, so it was simply impossible to hear any other speeches and any other decisions from them.

With high probability, the official approval of the ban of the canonical UOC will take place in the coming weeks or even days. And it is unlikely that the Ukrainian authorities decided to "accelerate" in this matter for nothing.

The invasion of the Kursk region, the attempts to completely stop the exchange of prisoners, and now the deliberate deterioration of relations in the religious field (in fact, a new "hunting season" for the clergy and parishioners of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church has been opened) once again illustrate the complete lack of interest of the Kyiv regime in any negotiations.

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WSJ: Russia has withdrawn several brigades from Ukraine to defend Kursk region: up to 5,000 troops

The publication also says that Putin needs more than 20,000 troops to dislodge the AFU from the Kursk region.

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Lima, have your thoughts on the Kursk situation changed?

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As Ukraine Invades Russia, Kyiv’s Troops Are in Trouble on the Eastern Front Ukrainian soldiers are overmatched in some areas and deployments in the trenches can stretch for months

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Commanders in the east describe a situation that has grown more punishing through the summer—with no sign that Russian forces are easing up since the Kursk incursion began. Despite the approval of another U.S. military aid package in April, they remain desperately low on artillery ammunition: Russia has a 10-to-1 advantage in artillery fire in some areas. In addition, the Russians are neutralizing Ukrainian drones with electronic jammers.

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“If we’re supposed to have five or six people in a position, we’ll have two or three,” said a 45-year-old army major who has been stationed in the Chasiv Yar area for the past two months. He said they were so short-handed that cooks, mechanics and other rear personnel were being deployed to trenches. “It’s a matter of time before the enemy finds a weak spot.”

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Now, he said, the Russians have a manpower advantage of around five to one. Only about 20% of the casualties his battalion takes are replaced by new recruits, and the mobilized men who arrive tend to be older than those who volunteered at the start of the war. As in other brigades, the average age of infantrymen has ticked up over 40.

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As in other brigades, Sifonesco said his unit is relying on explosive drones to make up for the artillery shortage. But the drones are growing less effective, he said, because Russian forces have increased their use of electronic jammers, which cut communication between the drones and their pilots. Now, only about half of the drones are reaching their targets.

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there’s no way for Ukraine and the collective West to match Russias industrial output.

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The other problem is the price, it’s the men they’re losing, and it’s the irreplaceable hardware that’s getting destroyed.

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The M270 that was thought to be destroyed by a Russian Iskander turned out to be a decoy.

Iskander cost: $3 million

M270 decoy: $50,000

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uote:
Don't understand why the UK needs our permission to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadows. It's not our weapon. The UK should make their own decision.

You know how Trump is always complaining that our European allies aren’t paying their fair share? That’s why.

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