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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/16/24 at 8:54 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 8/16/24 at 8:54 pm to StormyMcMan
1
Posted on 8/16/24 at 9:17 pm to StormyMcMan
I mean, Ukraine filmed the destruction of the bridge with a recon drone. They are very close. Any pontoon bridge that Russia sets up will not last long, so they probably set it up to transport what they wanted to get across and then dismantled it.
But as Ukraine closes in, Ukraine will be able to hit any pontoon faster than Russia can set it up and take it down.
But as Ukraine closes in, Ukraine will be able to hit any pontoon faster than Russia can set it up and take it down.
Posted on 8/16/24 at 9:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
Important advance that helps protect Sudzha, though further progress to the east is still critical. I am guessing that Ukraine has already restored the old railroad from Sumy to Sudzha. There's already a major station and depot there, and making it a logistics center will be important for holding the area for the long term.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/16/24 at 9:57 pm to GOP_Tiger
What happened for Ukraine to allow them to pull this off? After almost 30 months of war, untold casualties and total destruction in parts of the country because of the invasion, why and how did it happen now? After all this time did Russia not see this as a possibility?
Posted on 8/16/24 at 10:06 pm to gizmothepug
The Russians got cocky and committed the vast majority of their combat experienced troops in Ukraine itself. In doing so they left their flanks wide open guarded by shitty trained conscripts, border guards and goat frickers from Kadyrov’s men.
Posted on 8/16/24 at 10:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
Ukraine of course can waste rockets taking out pontoon bridges but they are close enough to be y der drone, artillery and mortar fire on top of HIMARS range. As soon as Russia started to put up a pontoon bridge I would hit it with a few FPVs and then just lob mortar rounds and self propelled artillery at them. Even if it doesn’t completely stop them it will severely slow them down.
Posted on 8/16/24 at 10:17 pm to gizmothepug
quote:
What happened for Ukraine to allow them to pull this off? After almost 30 months of war, untold casualties and total destruction in parts of the country because of the invasion, why and how did it happen now? After all this time did Russia not see this as a possibility?
Well, it wasn't a possibility at all ... until Russia re-invaded the Kharkiv region a few months ago, and Ukraine finally got US, German, etc. permission to use their weapons to strike Russians on Russian soil in the border areas near where Russia was fighting.
Obviously, Syrskyi & Co. realized the importance of this decision, as Ukraine now "technically" had permission to do exactly what they are doing.
As the Reuters article that I excerpted today made clear, the US didn't think to insist on a clause that would prevent this invasion, even though the Biden administration doesn't approve (because they don't want Ukraine to win and want to practice "escalation management"). The US didn't anticipate this as a consequence, and very obviously, neither did Russia, because Russia still knew that the US didn't want Ukraine to do this. It never even crossed the Russians' minds that this change in the ROI with NATO weapons might result in Ukraine invading Russia.
Posted on 8/16/24 at 10:36 pm to WeeWee
quote:
The Russians were able to eventually bridge the river and maintain the bridge IIRC.
I counted 4 bridges across the river, not 2. Maybe the other 2 or single lane.
Seems like this is more about trapping Russians there now than their being reinforced over the next 2 or 3 days.
Posted on 8/16/24 at 10:41 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Former Soviet Aircraft Carrier MINSK Severely Damaged by Fire in China
That's the one which was in Ukraine when the big split with Russia occurred and not even completed
This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 10:43 pm
Posted on 8/16/24 at 11:20 pm to gizmothepug
quote:
What happened for Ukraine to allow them to pull this off?
1. They realized that Biden and Jake Sullivan are lame ducks. They figured that it would be easier to ask forgiveness from Trump or Harris and whomever they put in place than continue listening to Biden and Jake Sullivan about not crossing red lines for fear of Russia escalating the war.
2. Also they are worried about aid being European leaders losing confidence in them.
3. They had to do something to boost morale amongst their own forces and people.
4. Russia left the Kursk oblast basically unguarded.
5. The Ukrainians are a ballsy and unpredictable group of people.
This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 11:30 pm
Posted on 8/16/24 at 11:24 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Former Soviet Aircraft Carrier MINSK Severely Damaged by Fire in China That's the one which was in Ukraine when the big split with Russia occurred and not even completed
No. That aircraft carrier is currently in service with the PLAN as the Lianong. The Minsk is a Kyiv class carrier which was completed and served in the Soviet navy. It was decommissioned when the USSR fell apart. Russia sold it to South Korea for scrapping but then resold to China and turned into an amusement park attraction.
Posted on 8/16/24 at 11:49 pm to WeeWee
quote:
The Ukrainians are a ballsy and unpredictable group of people.
It’s avos
quote:
The Russian avos' (Russian: ?????) describes a philosophy of behavior, or attitude, of a person who ignores possible problems or hassles and, at the same time, expects or hopes for no negative results or consequences. It is an attitude that treats life as unpredictable and holds that the best one can do is count on luck.[1][2]
LINK
This post was edited on 8/16/24 at 11:50 pm
Posted on 8/16/24 at 11:55 pm to Lima Whiskey
Lima, have your thoughts on the Kursk situation changed?
Posted on 8/17/24 at 12:09 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Lima Whiskey
So what are the new FSB talking points?
Posted on 8/17/24 at 5:21 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
It will probably take a couple of weeks at minimum, the balance of forces in Kursk is around 1:1 right now, but the Russians will annihilate these units and push back over the border into Sumy. The Russian advantage in drones, artillery, and air power will do that.
Is the balance of forces still around 1:1? When do you think that the annihilation will happen now?
Posted on 8/17/24 at 6:14 am to gizmothepug
quote:
why and how did it happen now? After all this time did Russia not see this as a possibility?
Football season is nearly here so how about this analogy.
Russia jumped into a 10 man front the corner was playing tight with no safety help and the Ukies hit one over the top.
Posted on 8/17/24 at 6:56 am to bigjoe1
quote:
Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say
quote:
The warring countries were set to hold indirect talks in Qatar on an agreement to halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure, according to officials.
quote:
Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.
But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials. The possible agreement and planned summit have not been previously reported.
quote:
The diplomat familiar with the talks said that Qatar has been discussing the arrangement for an energy strike moratorium with Kyiv and Moscow for the past two months. The official said the two sides agreed to a summit in Doha with just minor details left to be worked out.
“After Kursk, the Russians balked,” another person familiar with the talks said.
Washington Post.
This post was edited on 8/17/24 at 7:00 am
Posted on 8/17/24 at 7:16 am to Bunk Moreland
UK waiting for US' approval to greenlight Kyiv's Storm Shadow strikes in Russia, Times reports
by Martin Fornusek August 17, 2024 1:17 PM
The U.K. government asked the U.S. over a month ago for permission for Ukraine to use British Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia but is yet to receive a positive response, The Times reported on Aug. 16, citing undisclosed government sources.
Ukraine has long been asking its Western partners for permission to use long-range missiles, like the Storm Shadow of American ATAMCS, inside Russia.
So far, the Western countries have not budged on the issue, even as Kyiv launched a cross-border incursion into Russia.
One British government source told The Times that the request has been effectively "stuck in their (U.S.) system," while another called it a "routine U.S. process." A third source said the discussion with allies on using the Storm Shadow is ongoing.
According to one of the sources, London does not blame Washington for the delay and considers it an expected part of a policy change process.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.
The Kyiv Independent
by Martin Fornusek August 17, 2024 1:17 PM
The U.K. government asked the U.S. over a month ago for permission for Ukraine to use British Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia but is yet to receive a positive response, The Times reported on Aug. 16, citing undisclosed government sources.
Ukraine has long been asking its Western partners for permission to use long-range missiles, like the Storm Shadow of American ATAMCS, inside Russia.
So far, the Western countries have not budged on the issue, even as Kyiv launched a cross-border incursion into Russia.
One British government source told The Times that the request has been effectively "stuck in their (U.S.) system," while another called it a "routine U.S. process." A third source said the discussion with allies on using the Storm Shadow is ongoing.
According to one of the sources, London does not blame Washington for the delay and considers it an expected part of a policy change process.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 8/17/24 at 7:21 am to cypher
Don't understand why the UK needs our permission to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadows. It's not our weapon. The UK should make their own decision.
Posted on 8/17/24 at 8:04 am to bigjoe1
quote:
Don't understand why the UK needs our permission to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadows. It's not our weapon. The UK should make their own decision.
Some components are of US origin/design
or
UK's economic issues cause it to rely on the US in trade policy at a minimum. Brexit made the UK reliant on the US. It had to accept US trade deal under Trump on US terms.
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