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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:24 pm to Lee B
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:24 pm to Lee B
Yall act like there isn’t a significant number of countries with a significant amount of the world’s wealth and power that will be dealing with demo issues going forward. It’s a potential anchor that could pull them under, but it’s not entirely unique to them. Even the US will look very different in 50 years based on current trends. History tells us Russia will be there in some form.
1
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:28 pm to Lee B
quote:
Demographics... there won't be enough Russians in half a century to do anything...
Now do the US. Or most of the European countries.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:31 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Its incomprehensibly bizarre to me that Russia is still transporting gas across Ukraine and Ukraine is allowing it.
Russia began the conflict before the extension of its South Stream pipeline which supplies natural gas Hungary and Central Europe by way of the Black Sea and Bulgaria could be completed. Russia has not other way to get its gas to the few European nations that are still buying it. If Ukraine stopped them it would lose roughly $800 million in transit fees. Also if Ukraine stopped the flow of gas before the contracts expire they open themselves up to litigation and fines from the countries buying the gas.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:32 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
That brings me back to a point I made a while back though, if/when Russia does rebuild their military and economy they will likely tie those two things together.. investing in factories to supply themselves and other geopolitical ne'er do wells with more modern equipment. It might take half a century to do it, but then you've got who knows what kind of leader at the helm of a revamped military that isn't pulling broken down old crap from storage and refurbishing it in order to use it. That's not necessarily a prediction, just a potential outcome I see.
The demographic collapse of Russia should be complete before then. It only had around a 5 year window with enough men at fighting age. Russia already depended on migrant workers from Central Asian nations for its manufacturing before 2022.
Russia lost its best and brightest who fled in 2022.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:36 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Yall act like there isn’t a significant number of countries with a significant amount of the world’s wealth and power that will be dealing with demo issues going forward. It’s a potential anchor that could pull them under, but it’s not entirely unique to them. Even the US will look very different in 50 years based on current trends. History tells us Russia will be there in some form.
You don't get it at all. It's age demographics and that are collapsing in Russia. It will be a retirement home in 20 years, Just like a number of European nations and China too. Japan seems to have avoided loss of productivity via automation.
The US is just fine in age demographics. Mexico is in better shape than most everyone else.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 6:48 pm to CitizenK
quote:
The US is just fine in age demographics.
90% of the population growth is Hispanic immigration. This will break the country.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:10 pm to doubleb
quote:
I believe that they had no idea Ukraine could survive their initial attack, and had no idea the amount of capital the West would then invest to help them.
After Obama, Ukraine got a good bit of lethal arms mostly in terms of Javelins and Stingers, but they also had produced a good bit of their own weapons.
Ukraine's army and reserves were substantial and the Russians were ill prepared. Russia came in with about a 1,000 armored vehicles, but the MBT's in three columns found the soil too soft and all ended in a big traffic jam on a paved road for a month and were torn up as a result.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:21 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
90% of the population growth is Hispanic immigration. This will break the country.
Lots of white folks, likely whiter than you, are Hispanic. We do not have less white people than 10 or 20 years ago. Meanwhile Russia's Slavs are a dying breed. The percentage of Allahu Akbar has grown considerably.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:25 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Ukraine's army and reserves were substantial and the Russians were ill prepared. Russia came in with about a 1,000 armored vehicles, but the MBT's in three columns found the soil too soft and all ended in a big traffic jam on a paved road for a month and were torn up as a result.
From the north through a giant swamp that is true.
From the east, it was ridge after ridge with years of defensive positions built up.
From the South it was much easier going for Russia with flatter terrain and where they seized the most territory after some officials didn't blow the bridges from Crimea as acts of treason.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:31 pm to Auburn1968
A good perspective:
Russia took some of northern Kharkiv Oblast at enormous cost. Ukraine isn't at all done expanding its control in Kursk. They are going to end up with a comparable size, taken at almost no cost.
They are also going to disrupt Russia's railway logistics to its troops in the Kharkiv area, making trains go a much longer route.
Ukraine caught Russia completely by surprise. Because previous border crossings had only been done by the "Free Russia Legion" and the "Russian Volunteer Corps," Russia assumed that the weak border guards and fortifications that they had were sufficient. They were absolutely unprepared for a major Ukrainian offensive.
Once the policy change allowed Ukraine to use western weapons on Russian territory, Russia should have anticipated that something like this could occur. They didn't.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Russia took some of northern Kharkiv Oblast at enormous cost. Ukraine isn't at all done expanding its control in Kursk. They are going to end up with a comparable size, taken at almost no cost.
They are also going to disrupt Russia's railway logistics to its troops in the Kharkiv area, making trains go a much longer route.
Ukraine caught Russia completely by surprise. Because previous border crossings had only been done by the "Free Russia Legion" and the "Russian Volunteer Corps," Russia assumed that the weak border guards and fortifications that they had were sufficient. They were absolutely unprepared for a major Ukrainian offensive.
Once the policy change allowed Ukraine to use western weapons on Russian territory, Russia should have anticipated that something like this could occur. They didn't.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:08 pm to CitizenK
ISW Update Aug 7
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7.
The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent.
Select Russian milbloggers heavily criticized the Russian military command for not detecting preparations for or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully adapt their drone capabilities.
Select Russian milbloggers heavily criticized the Russian military command for not detecting preparations for or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully adapt their drone capabilities.
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov assessed on August 7 that Russian offensive potential will culminate within one and a half to two months, generally consistent with ISW's assessment on current Russia's offensive capabilities.
Head of the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), Danielle Bell, stated that Russia has tortured 95 percent of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs) in Russian detention.
The Moldovan Central Electoral Commission (CEC) announced on August 7 that it would not register the pro-Kremlin Victory electoral bloc in the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election and referendum.
A Russian court sentenced Andrey Kurshin, administrator of the "Moscow Calling" Russian ultranationalist milblogger Telegram channel, to six and a half years in prison on August 7 for publishing "fake" information about the Russian military.
Ukrainian forces recently regained positions south of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces advanced northeast of Siversk, southwest of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Russian Army Combat Reserve (BARS) units continue recruitment efforts.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:18 pm to CitizenK
quote:
It will be a retirement home in 20 years, Just like a number of European nations and China too
Which I referred to
quote:
The US is just fine in age demographics
More demos than just age can break or change a country
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:25 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7.
So what’s the scale of this operation? Are we talking a full scale offensive?
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:37 pm to Darth_Vader
I'm hearing about a thousand Ukrainian and 75 or so pieces of armored vehicles. Who knows what's really true. Details are kinds sparse right now. Everyone is probably busy and can't post videos just yet
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:57 pm to Darth_Vader
Ukraine is maintaining OPSEC and not telling us the size of the offensive. And the Russians are just guessing.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:00 pm to ticklechain
1000 troops doesn't sound like they plan to stay but, looks like Russia has no reserves. I remember when Wagner started driving on Moscow they encountered no resistance.
Kinda like Russia is in a 9 man front and the corners are playing tight and the Ukies got one over the top.
Kinda like Russia is in a 9 man front and the corners are playing tight and the Ukies got one over the top.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 12:01 am to bigjoe1
Posted on 8/8/24 at 12:18 am to doubleb
quote:
I believe that they had no idea Ukraine could survive their initial attack, and had no idea the amount of capital the West would then invest to help them.
I do believe Russia though Ukraine wasn’t surviving the initial attack, but it’s hard for me to believe Russia didn’t think the West wouldn’t go all out protecting Ukraine if it wasn’t over in the first 30 days.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 3:58 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Ukraine is maintaining OPSEC and not telling us the size of the offensive. And the Russians are just guessing.
From released Russian videos, we see vehicles of the the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade involved. Both of those are high-quality units with some of the best equipment.
So, it's a good guess that Ukraine's Kursk offensive is being carried out by two full brigades, with other supporting assets.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 4:45 am to GOP_Tiger
Multiple Russian accounts are now saying that Ukraine is in control of Sudzha, a town of 5000 that hosts the junction of the Trans-Siberian and Brotherhood natural gas pipelines.
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