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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:28 am to gizmothepug
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:28 am to gizmothepug
quote:
quote:
I believe that they had no idea Ukraine could survive their initial attack, and had no idea the amount of capital the West would then invest to help them.
I do believe Russia though Ukraine wasn’t surviving the initial attack, but it’s hard for me to believe Russia didn’t think the West wouldn’t go all out protecting Ukraine if it wasn’t over in the first 30 days.
Russia had spent millions on psy op campaigns to convince Ukrainians they were indeed Russians who should welcome Russian control against the evil West, and millions on bribes to Ukrainian politicians and military leaders, who were supposed to convince the people not to fight and resist, as well as sabotage or alert them to defenses. And of course, everyone in charge of those programs reported back that they were completely successful.
They weren't.
Zelensky and his cabinet did not hop on a jet to Poland 5 minutes after the border incursion. Zelensky gave a televised announcement of the invasion and accepted his fate as probably being killed within 48 hours. That changed everything... the Russians were not planning on actually having to fight at all, were not equipped or prepared for it... hell, the troops weren't even told it was actually an invasion, just a joint military practice. There was just mostly confusion at first, and as someone just mentioned the Ukranian military was somewhat prepared (the Pentagon had been alerting them to the troop buildup for weeks of not months... publicly the Ukrainian government was downplaying the threat but secretly preparing for the possibility. The Russian advancement in the South was the result of bribed traitors not following the defensive plan and blowing the bridges into Ukraine from Crimea. I remember the Mayor of Odessa being arrested in the first weeks for spray painting things on the roofs of certain buildings to tell the Russians what to target.
I believe the US and NATO had been training Ukrainian Special Forces since 2014, if not the larger Ukrainian military, and though vastly outnumbered they were the units who stopped those drives towards Kyiv.
0
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:30 am to CitizenK
quote:
A few reports are suggesting much larger, at least double that size.
quote:
Also, at least 300 Russians have surrendered thus far,
They don't know the size of the force even to within a couple hundred men, but have a number for us on how many Russians are captured
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:30 am to cypher
quote:
KyivPost
@KyivPost
Let it not be lost among the blizzard of headlines that for the first time since WW2, Russia is weakened to the point that a foreign army is now maneuvering inside Russian territory.
Yes... and not using advanced US arms... this is a HUGE deal!!!
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:36 am to VolSquatch
quote:
2022 was vastly different in scale. The global geopolitical community has a pretty long track record of being mad about but ultimately not doing anything substantial in regards to smaller land grabs, but full scale invasions are looked at differently.
Perhaps, but I believe that Western inaction and Obama’s lack of leadership invited Putin to go further. And why not? People saw that Russia had eyes on Ukraine and the West was doing very little to help Ukraine.
Biden appeared weak. He was Obama’s guy right? I could easily see Putin sloughing off any threats Biden presented.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:42 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Now do the US. Or most of the European countries.
We went through all this extensively a couple of thousand pages back...
The US is in great Demographic shape, because immigration makes up for our numbers.
The EU is modeled after the US... it shouldn't matter if populations dip in certain countries... beyond a language barrier, if they get over themselves they can attract workers/consumers. But... I just saw some report about people in Portugal being pissed because they;'re attracting a lot of migration from neighboring European countries, and that boosting the economy... which is making things more expensive, so the people want to drive the foreigners out so they have everything cheap, again... which is not good for their economy.
People are...
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:50 am to doubleb
quote:
Perhaps, but I believe that Western inaction and Obama’s lack of leadership invited Putin to go further. And why not? People saw that Russia had eyes on Ukraine and the West was doing very little to help Ukraine.
Biden appeared weak. He was Obama’s guy right? I could easily see Putin sloughing off any threats Biden presented.
Obama prioritized a deal to deter Iran's nuclear ambitions, and he needed Putin to get that... and also, Obama's foreign policy was... well, pretty much just not to have a foreign policy, which is what everybody wanted after the W Bush years, and he just said "Ukraine will always be of vital importance to Russia, and to the US... it's just not." But he did behind the scenes start military aid and training things in secret, probably because the surrounding NATO countries were like "Look, Dude... we know how this eventually ends..."
But let's cut the "Putin thinks Trump is strong" charade... Trump kissed Putin's arse and in a mealy-mouth manner sold out the US intelligence agencies HE WAS IN CONTROL OF on the international stage. That was embarrassing and will live in infamy in history.
If anything, Biden winning made Putin feel less in control and that probably prompted the invasion.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:04 am to VolSquatch
quote:
1000 troops and 70-something vehicles
Impossible Russia said they killed 660 soldiers and destroy 82 vehicles (saw in a tweet earlier)
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:11 am to doubleb
quote:
Well when Russia took Crimea and went into the Donbas, what did the West do then to help Ukraine?
Compare that reaction to their reaction in March/April of 22 and on and on.
That’s my point.
Ukraine is the 9th invasion Russia has launched into its former satellites since 1991 (pre-Putin)... what did the West do about any of the other 8? People are actually questioning what's so special about Ukraine as opposed to the other areas at this point. And that's why NATO membership was wanted so badly by a lot of these countries.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:16 am to cypher
quote:
Russia is weakened to the point that a foreign army is now maneuvering inside Russian territory.
China could roll up into Siberia tomorrow and there isn't a damn thing -- short of launching ICBM nukes -- that Russia could do about it.
That's what's so dangerous about this war. Not that it might spill into Poland and Romania and all of that. But that China might decide it's tired of being little brother.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:17 am to VolSquatch
quote:
2022 was vastly different in scale. The global geopolitical community has a pretty long track record of being mad about but ultimately not doing anything substantial in regards to smaller land grabs, but full scale invasions are looked at differently.
Economic sanctions and diplomatic freeze-outs rather than military things... or usually no big public shows of military aid
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:19 am to VolSquatch
quote:
If its just 1000 troops and 70-something vehicles they are going to get all of those guys killed if they overextend like that.
killed by who?
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:22 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
This is pure speculation on my part, but I’d guess the main aim of this incursion is to relieve pressure elsewhere by forcing the Russians to shift forces here. Along with this, there is invaluable propaganda benefit in what they’re doing. I’m sure the average Russian is inundated with Russian propaganda on how well the war is going. The fact Ukraine is able to (1) launch such an offensive into Russian territory and (2) apparently sow such havoc and (3) catch the Russian Army flat-footed and inflict substantial losses on them is sure to cause consternation among the Russians.
Have a couple of large highly mobile units behind Russia's in-depth defenses of mine fields, trenches and tank traps could reek havoc on the nearby front areas.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:27 am to Lee B
quote:
But let's cut the "Putin thinks Trump is strong" charade... Trump kissed Putin's arse and in a mealy-mouth manner sold out the US intelligence agencies HE WAS IN CONTROL OF on the international stage. That was embarrassing and will live in infamy in history. If anything,
Biden winning made Putin feel less in control and that probably prompted the invasion.
Trump’s biggest asset is his unpredictability. Putin couldn’t figure him out. On the other hand Biden appeared predictable appearing to be Obama, Jr.; however, he fooled Putin and responded to help Ukraine in a big way.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:29 am to Lee B
quote:
killed by who?
Killed by choking on the dust of all those Russians running towards Moscow.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:30 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Nobody has figured out counter drone warfare yet. They will eventually. You won't eliminate them ss a threat but you'll be able to deal with them like they figured out how to counter tanks, machine guns, etc.
As deadly as they are, drones are still largely in their infancy. Electronic warfare can cut remote controls and mess up GPS, but any decent cell phone processor can soon be fully capable of terrain mapping, motion tracking and image recognition for targeting. It's going to be hard to disrupt that short of physically shooting them down.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 10:46 am to No Colors
quote:
quote:
Russia is weakened to the point that a foreign army is now maneuvering inside Russian territory.
China could roll up into Siberia tomorrow and there isn't a damn thing -- short of launching ICBM nukes -- that Russia could do about it.
That's what's so dangerous about this war. Not that it might spill into Poland and Romania and all of that. But that China might decide it's tired of being little brother.
China is smarter than that...
1) it's easier and cheaper to be given what it wants out of those areas by a desperate Russia than the expense of an invasion and occupation
2) its own military will be exposed to be as much of a corrupt paper tiger if the pedal hits the metal... better to preserve the image of a fierce large fighting force than be found out.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 11:03 am to Lee B
quote:
it's easier and cheaper to be given what it wants out of those areas by a desperate Russia than the expense of an invasion and occupation
China has been economically "invading" portions of Asia and Africa for 30 years. It "invests"money in a railroad in Africa. Or a paper mill in Siberia. Or a port complex in Cambodia. Then it waits for the right moment to "protect its investment". So the area near the paper mill in Siberia has some local unrest. And the Russian army isn't around to secure it. So China just sends in some "private security force" to protect its investment. Or if the African Republic of Botsylvania misses a debt payment on the railroad, China takes it over and begins filling rail cars full of grain to head back to the mother land as debt payments.
China is truly playing the long game with the rest of the world. The problem is that they might run out of demographics before their investments have time to pay off.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 11:11 am to cypher
quote:
Let it not be lost among the blizzard of headlines that for the first time since WW2, Russia is weakened to the point that a foreign army is now maneuvering inside Russian territory.
I don’t think this is a bad thing at all, and I wish Ukraine had the capability to do more incursions into the Russian homeland, but couldn’t this feed into Putin’s propaganda some? That the West and Ukraine are trying to invade Russia again, just like the Germans (West) did in 1941? Not saying I agree with that narrative at all, but Putin tries to set a narrative mostly to his own people, so maybe this incursion becomes an excuse for Putin to take the war up a few notches, not settle for any peace short of the collapse of the Ukrainian government, etc.
Just trying to figure out how Putin is going to take this and what his reaction/propaganda could be.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 11:12 am to No Colors
Posted on 8/8/24 at 11:20 am to Auburn1968
quote:
Have a couple of large highly mobile units behind Russia's in-depth defenses of mine fields, trenches and tank traps could reek havoc on the nearby front areas.
If the enemy is behind you that's a recipe for panic and once panic starts it's hard to stop, barrier troops notwithstanding. I'm not saying the Russian army is about to break and run en masse, but if they did it wouldn't totally surprise me. They're barely trained, barely supplied, undisciplined, unmotivated by anything other than money, and they know their leaders don't care whether they live or die. If they get the idea they're being abandoned, look out.
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