re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

If you disagree with the statement that territorial gains are good for Russia's prospects then nothing they do will be good for them in your view anyway

---

Those gains don't come without significant costs in men and equipment. Every day that Russia attacks in the Donbas represents a deeper and longer economic depression in Russia at the end of the war, and a weaker military that will need to be completely rebuilt.

quote:

---

But seizing and holding territories are two completely different tasks, so history will put everything in its place.

---

Are they selectively applying this to Ukraine, but not Russia?

quote:

---

quote:
JUST IN: Ukraine did not give the U.S. advance notification that they were going into Kurst, per two U.S. officials.

---

Plausible deniability.

What's being exploited here is that the Russians cannot retake territory in any manner except shelling it to rubble. So they will have to shell their own towns to rubble. Or send their meat wave attacks... inside Russia, with Russian civilians witnessing it.

I mean... Russia is being invaded by a smaller neighbor... that's a very big fricking deal.

This torpedoes the "Almighty Putin" internal image... he can't even protect his own people.

quote:

---

If you disagree with the statement that territorial gains are good for Russia's prospects then nothing they do will be good for them in your view anyway

---

I’m not saying it’s good, but I don’t think they are getting a good enough return on their investment.

A little analogy. If I give you a million dollars to invest and I tell you to grow your best egg and you put it in a MM account and make 2% after two years. That’s good.

If I gave your brother the same amount and he put it in a mutual fund tied to the S&P and he made 10% that would be good too and a whole lot better.

If I gave your sister the same amount and she invested it in some risky equities and she made 18% at first, lost 15%, and is now is clawing back a very small percentage a week is that good? Yes, but it’s not without a ton of risk.

I submit to you that Russia has invested a lot of capital and while they have something positive to show for it; I don’t see a path to stability and long term growth.

Good thread to read down...

"On August 2, a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group was completely wiped out, the bodies were shown in Ukrainian [Telegram channels], but the understanding that the fighters had run into a group preparing an invasion, not a special force, did not come."

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

An unfortunate series of window and tea mishaps

quote:

---

What's being exploited here is that the Russians cannot retake territory in any manner except shelling it to rubble. So they will have to shell their own towns to rubble. Or send their meat wave attacks... inside Russia, with Russian civilians witnessing it.

---

That's a clever tactic and a possible bargaining chip for the future. If Putin wants to take it back, he will also have to pull troops from other areas of the front.

quote:

---

Every day that Russia attacks in the Donbas represents a deeper and longer economic depression in Russia at the end of the war, and a weaker military that will need to be completely rebuilt.

---

That brings me back to a point I made a while back though, if/when Russia does rebuild their military and economy they will likely tie those two things together.. investing in factories to supply themselves and other geopolitical ne'er do wells with more modern equipment. It might take half a century to do it, but then you've got who knows what kind of leader at the helm of a revamped military that isn't pulling broken down old crap from storage and refurbishing it in order to use it. That's not necessarily a prediction, just a potential outcome I see.

quote:

---

if/when Russia does rebuild...

---

quote:

---

It might take half a century to do it...

---

Business Insider: Almost half of top foreign policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033

Demographics... there won't be enough Russians in half a century to do anything...