re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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February 22, 2022- August 7, 2024. That’s nearly two and a half years of fighting. Is gaining on average 30 square miles a day the way for Russia to accomplish their objectives?

Personally I do not think that it is.

Sure they wind up with 30 square miles, but the towns and villages aren’t inhabitable. The residents have gone. What have they really gained?

Meanwhile their economy is stressed, their citizens are stressed, and the quality of life is beginning to decline.

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Is Russia equipped to occupy what they seize? Are Russian troops going to raise food in those areas? Dig wells for drinking water?

Crimea has been rendered uninhabitable for civilians and troops, alike. Human beings require fresh water to survive. Russia short-sightedly destroyed the reservoir that supplied water to Crimea. Water has to be brought in... they can't bring in enough.

Al Qaeda laughed that the US military required such a big apparatus to maintain a presence in Afghanistan and Iraq... bases with tons of contractors, food supplies, fuel supplies... while Al Qaeda could fight with just what it could scrounge up wherever it was at the time. That was a big cost difference, but it didn't give Al Qaeda a big edge in the long run.

The US was a bit shocked that Russia launched this invasion without any of that even set up... remember the first days of the invasion where Russian troops were banging on Ukrainian villagers doors and demanding food because they had not brought an with them?

Ineptness or corruption... the pics of Russian troops still drinking from puddles on the ground point out that it has never really been corrected.

Needing a supply chain just to survive is a major vulnerability.

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how do their objectives even make sense at this point?

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Their talking head commentators now just say

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There is your problem. Stop listening to talking heads.

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So instead of listening to what Russians try to convince their internal national audience of and analyzing what and why they're trying to achieve, we do what, exactly? Trust your gut on Putin's motives?

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How much do you gain from listening to our talking heads about what our actual motives are? Basically nothing, right? And we are technically at peace right now. Why would Russia tell their media to publicly say "Our goal remains to hold the east and Crimea" or something along those lines?

I say this all the time in here, the messaging politicians want us and more importantly their enemies/rivals to hear doesn't always (I would argue rarely) lines up with their actual goals.... whether that is from a negotiation standpoint or the fact that there just isn't a logical reason for them to disclose that publicly during a war. Is the populace going to rise up and revolt if the news media says X and then Putin gets on TV and says "Well all we really wanted the whole time is _____ thing and we got it" whenever this is over? Of course not. And Putin doesn't care if it makes him unpopular, public opinion means nothing to him and he is old anyway.

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Only NATO troops with NATO weapons could possibly dislodge the Russians and there is not a single NATO population that would support this. Certainly not for the cost in lives it would require.

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The Russian army could revolt against the senseless death and grind for Putin's "Special Operation" and Peter the Great dreams. They nearly did that with Wagner's revolt.

Ukraine has been under the Russian boot before and suffered Moscow's mass murders so they won't ever give up.

But I guess this is why you seem to still believe there is some political, diplomatic solution to this, and that Putin will ever negotiate anything in good faith.

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As expected Russia just taking bigger chunks of territory as expected: quote:Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said Russia had captured 420sq km (162sq miles) of Ukrainian territory since June 14, as the Ministry of Defence said its forces had taken control of Tymofiivka, a village in eastern Donetsk region.

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You do realize that Russia lies don’t you? It’s probably more like 200 km^2. Also you do realize that 420 km^2 is not much land. For comparison, East Baton Rouge parish is 1200 km^2. Also if you do the math you will see that Russia only moved 11 km west. Tymofiivka is 50 km from the border of the Donetsk oblast. At Russia’s rate of advance it will take Tymofiivka it will be next spring before Russia reaches the border of Donetsk. That of course is assuming that weather and the Ukrainians don’t slow them down. Until they reach the border of the Donetsk oblast they ain’t accomplished shite.

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You can tell a great deal from how any of them are trying to manipulate opinion, beyond just what they actually say.

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They have to pick a message that accomplishes a lot of things at once

1) some justification for the war "US Bad, Ukraine is overrun with NAZIs, NATO overreach, etc". You see all of that from them.

2. Doesn't tip your hand publicly. Their messaging does that, at least IMO.

3. Generates recruitment buzz based on number 1. Its not overly successful in that aspect, but its an attempt nonetheless.

"This is a land grab" Accomplishes none of those 3. The "Putin wants world domination" truthers are beyond stupid.

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Ukraine continues to expand its control in Kursk with fast moving maneuver units. Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) has now taken control of:

1.Sudzhansky District:
•Sudja: Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) units have entered the western suburbs. The center of Sudzha is currently a “gray zone” with control split between the UAF (west) and Russian troops (east).
•Gornal: Occupied by UAF.
•Guevo: Occupied by UAF.
•Kurilovka: Occupied by UAF.
2.Northwestern Sector:
•Leonidove: Occupied by UAF.
•Lyubimovka: Occupied by UAF.
•Zeleny Shlyakh Farm: Russian troops attempted a counterattack but failed.
3.Korenevsky District:
•Korenevo: Ukrainian armored groups have conducted reconnaissance in force and reached the outskirts of Korenevo, which is approximately 30 km southeast of Rylsk. Russian forces are currently engaged in fighting along the Rylsk-Sudzha highway trying to prevent the UAF from occupying Korenevo.

Korenevo is 12 miles (20km) from the border with Ukraine. This represents the furthest advance into Russia so far.

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uS officials will contact their Ukrainian colleagues to "understand a little better" the situation in the kursk region (russia).

This was stated by White House National Security Adviser John Kirby.

He added that the United States has not changed its policy regarding strikes on the territory of the russian federation — Ukraine can strike with American weapons only on the border of russia.

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Sources are reporting that Russian aviation accidentally bombed their own soldiers attempting to leave the town of Sudzha.

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314 sq Km were taken by Ukrainian Army in Kursk oblast. However, contradictorily, it seems that I will have to draw the Sumy oblast too...

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Reports of Russian forces transferring national guard and large contingents of special forces units to guard the Kursk Nuclear power plant.

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Rybar

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?????????? Kursk direction
6pm, August 7

The situation in Kursk region continues to deteriorate: over the last hour there have been several confirmations of at least partial control of Ukrainian formations over Suja, as well as the withdrawal of the enemy's advanced armored group to the borders of Korenevo.

?? AFU units have entered the western suburbs of Sudzha. The very center of the settlement, located in the lowlands, is in the "gray zone". Russian troops retain control over the eastern part of the town, which is located on a hill.

?? At the same time, Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Sudzha: the occupation by the AFU of the settlements of Gornal, Guevo and Kurilovka is confirmed in this section. Russian UAV operators are conducting reconnaissance of the terrain and issuing target designations for firing on identified enemy positions while ground troops, border guards and Rosgvardeys are counterattacking.

?? In the north-western section, Ukrainian forces have also expanded their zone of control. The village of Leonidovo and the village of Lyubimovka have been occupied. At the same time, Russian troops attempted a counterattack in the direction of the nearby village of Zelenyi Shlyakh, but failed to liberate the village.

?? One of the Ukrainian armored groups consisting of several units of equipment conducted a reconnaissance battle along the Rylsk - Suja highway, managing to reach the outskirts of the working settlement of Korenevo, which is located about 30 km southeast of Rylsk.

At the moment, Russian troops are striking Ukrainian forces and fighting on the highway, trying to prevent the enemy from occupying the administrative center of Korenevo district.

??On the second day of the Ukrainian strike in Kursk region, the situation remains difficult: the enemy's long preparation for the strike, alas, has borne fruit. The enemy's engineering equipment is being sent to the parts of the Russian territory occupied by the AFU to equip defensive fortifications.

But seizing and holding territories are two completely different tasks, so history will put everything in its place.

?? Nevertheless, the AFU's media victory against the backdrop of the large-scale failures of the AFU in the Donetsk People's Republic has turned out to be temporarily siccessful: alas, there are videos of captured Russian soldiers and evidence of successful advances deep into the territory of the Russian Federation.

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JUST IN: Ukraine did not give the U.S. advance notification that they were going into Kurst, per two U.S. officials.

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Ukraine doesn't have to drive Russia out, they just have to make it impossibly costly for them to stay. The more territory Russia gains, the harder it is for them to keep it.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is mounting offensives INTO Russia? And Russian troops are running away from them.

Occupied territory swap?

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30 sq miles a day x 2.5 years. That is what you said, no?

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No, after almost two and a half years Russia has been gaining about 30 square miles per day for the last six weeks.