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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/8/24 at 5:37 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 8/8/24 at 5:37 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Ukraine is in control of Sudzha, a town of 5000
That's impossible. Trinidadtiger just told us all that the war was over. That is had been over for quite some time. And they were just waiting to announce it.
1
Posted on 8/8/24 at 6:04 am to No Colors
Good job on not telling Jake Sullivan of their plans.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 6:24 am to doubleb
quote:
30 sq miles a day x 2.5 years. That is what you said, no?
No, after almost two and a half years Russia has been gaining about 30 square miles per day for the last six weeks.
Yet you did not say that.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 6:28 am to GOP_Tiger
For all the grief that Syrskyi has gotten (a lot of it deserved), this is why Zelensky put him in command. It's very reminiscent of Syrskyi's Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, when broke threw a thinly held Russian line and was able to capture Izyium and Lyman without much of a fight. What we're seeing now is true combined arms, maneuver warfare. This, not what we saw last year, is the true counteroffensive.
.Now, the questions are:
1). How far can the Ukrainian logistical chain support them inside Russia? and
2). How well can Ukraine reinforce and hold it's new ground inside Russia?
.
.Now, the questions are:
1). How far can the Ukrainian logistical chain support them inside Russia? and
2). How well can Ukraine reinforce and hold it's new ground inside Russia?
.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 6:37 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
They are also going to disrupt Russia's railway logistics to its troops in the Kharkiv area, making trains go a much longer route.
I would hope they would destroy every piece of rail transportation they can. Rails, bridges, cars, engines, destroy them all.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 7:31 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
From released Russian videos, we see vehicles of the the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade involved. Both of those are high-quality units with some of the best equipment.
So, it's a good guess that Ukraine's Kursk offensive is being carried out by two full brigades, with other supporting assets.
This is pure speculation on my part, but I’d guess the main aim of this incursion is to relieve pressure elsewhere by forcing the Russians to shift forces here. Along with this, there is invaluable propaganda benefit in what they’re doing. I’m sure the average Russian is inundated with Russian propaganda on how well the war is going. The fact Ukraine is able to (1) launch such an offensive into Russian territory and (2) apparently sow such havoc and (3) catch the Russian Army flat-footed and inflict substantial losses on them is sure to cause consternation among the Russians.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 7:37 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
This is pure speculation on my part, but I’d guess the main aim of this incursion is to relieve pressure elsewhere by forcing the Russians to shift forces here. Along with this, there is invaluable propaganda benefit in what they’re doing. I’m sure the average Russian is inundated with Russian propaganda on how well the war is going. The fact Ukraine is able to (1) launch such an offensive into Russian territory and (2) apparently sow such havoc and (3) catch the Russian Army flat-footed and inflict substantial losses on them is sure to cause consternation among the Russians.
That seems to be the consensus take from the analysts/bloggers on X.
Maybe they've found a tactic they can use @ other areas of the front selectively to ramp up the pressure. You play the card too much and Russia will be ready for it though.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 7:37 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
For all the grief that Syrskyi has gotten (a lot of it deserved), this is why Zelensky put him in command. It's very reminiscent of Syrskyi's Kharkiv offensive in September 2022, when broke threw a thinly held Russian line and was able to capture Izyium and Lyman without much of a fight. What we're seeing now is true combined arms, maneuver warfare. This, not what we saw last year, is the true counteroffensive.
The biggest factor in this war becoming a stalemate has been both sides apparent inability to conduct large-scale, or even small-scale, combined arms maneuver operations. If the Ukrainians have finally got it down pat, this could be significant.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 7:59 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
The biggest factor in this war becoming a stalemate has been both sides apparent inability to conduct large-scale, or even small-scale, combined arms maneuver operations. If the Ukrainians have finally got it down pat, this could be significant.
It seems like the situation is more than Russia got caught by surprise than anything else. Its a big win for Ukraine regardless, but tactically I don't think a takeaway is that Ukraine could do this in a more fortified area.
However, I do wonder if the lack of success by both sides in this area is indicative of a similar situation in future conflicts? Drones may make it so that once lines are established they really don't move a whole lot until one side just can't fight anymore due to lack of resources or people.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:01 am to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
Yet you did not say that.
For those who have actually paid attention it didn't need to be said. It's understood without saying
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:03 am to gizmothepug
quote:
I do believe Russia though Ukraine wasn’t surviving the initial attack, but it’s hard for me to believe Russia didn’t think the West wouldn’t go all out protecting Ukraine if it wasn’t over in the first 30 days.
Well when Russia took Crimea and went into the Donbas, what did the West do then to help Ukraine?
Compare that reaction to their reaction in March/April of 22 and on and on.
That’s my point.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:08 am to doubleb
quote:
Well when Russia took Crimea and went into the Donbas, what did the West do then to help Ukraine?
Compare that reaction to their reaction in March/April of 22 and on and on.
That’s my point.
2022 was vastly different in scale. The global geopolitical community has a pretty long track record of being mad about but ultimately not doing anything substantial in regards to smaller land grabs, but full scale invasions are looked at differently.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:10 am to VolSquatch
1) it appears to confirm that Russia has pulled most of its combat forces to the eastern front in Ukraine (plus Karkiv area). Only border guards/constripts
2) this at a minimum give Ukraine two things. It gives a propaganda win and it should pull forces out of the Kharkiv front that Russia was already struggling in. Their offense there stalled and has been receding. Russia has nothing to gain their now and should pull those forces to stop the Kursk offensive (west of Karkiv).
If Russia does indeed pull troops back from Karkiv the. Ukraine can redeploy forces it moved to Karkiv back to SE front where Russia is advancing
If Russia doesn’t move troops then ukrain can push deeper and swing east to cut Karkiv supply lines.
2) this at a minimum give Ukraine two things. It gives a propaganda win and it should pull forces out of the Kharkiv front that Russia was already struggling in. Their offense there stalled and has been receding. Russia has nothing to gain their now and should pull those forces to stop the Kursk offensive (west of Karkiv).
If Russia does indeed pull troops back from Karkiv the. Ukraine can redeploy forces it moved to Karkiv back to SE front where Russia is advancing
If Russia doesn’t move troops then ukrain can push deeper and swing east to cut Karkiv supply lines.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:14 am to tigeraddict
quote:
If Russia doesn’t move troops then ukrain can push deeper and swing east to cut Karkiv supply lines.
If its just 1000 troops and 70-something vehicles they are going to get all of those guys killed if they overextend like that.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:23 am to VolSquatch
quote:
If its just 1000 troops and 70-something vehicles they are going to get all of those guys killed if they overextend like that.
That’s the point. This small force is a raid/mobile force. But Russia doesn’t have the assets to expel them right now or they would have already. They have to move forces. Which is the likely goal of this incursion (I don’t see it being an invasion/holding force).
So as long as they are unresisted they will continue to disrupt the area. Once they are countered they will pull back. But those counter forces have to come from other front lines as it appears Russia has committed its reserves.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:25 am to VolSquatch
quote:
However, I do wonder if the lack of success by both sides in this area is indicative of a similar situation in future conflicts? Drones may make it so that once lines are established they really don't move a whole lot until one side just can't fight anymore due to lack of resources or people.
Nobody has figured out counter drone warfare yet. They will eventually. You won't eliminate them ss a threat but you'll be able to deal with them like they figured out how to counter tanks, machine guns, etc.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:32 am to tigeraddict
It appears to me that anyone who knew anything about mobile warfare on the russian side is dead and their equipment destroyed. If Russia can only throw waves of untrained infantry and the odd obsolete tank at the Ukrainians, expelling them may not be a given.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:35 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Nobody has figured out counter drone warfare yet. They will eventually. You won't eliminate them ss a threat but you'll be able to deal with them like they figured out how to counter tanks, machine guns, etc.
Both Russia and Ukraine are heavily reliant on standard cell service. So neither sides wants to disable cell towers because it would effect their offensive abilities as well as the opposing sides.
Look at Israel drones are less effective (but also not as high tech of an adversary)
I would imagine nato secured comms will allow the disabling of cell service and thus greatly impacting drone usage.
But cheap drones have put expensive vehicles at risk for sure.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:43 am to VolSquatch
quote:
If its just 1000 troops and 70-something vehicles they are going to get all of those guys killed if they overextend like that.
A few reports are suggesting much larger, at least double that size.
Also, at least 300 Russians have surrendered thus far, then there are the cut and run Russians who retreated. At least one Russian armor column was brought in to reinforce and promptly destroyed
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:25 am to CitizenK
KyivPost
@KyivPost
Let it not be lost among the blizzard of headlines that for the first time since WW2, Russia is weakened to the point that a foreign army is now maneuvering inside Russian territory.
@KyivPost
Let it not be lost among the blizzard of headlines that for the first time since WW2, Russia is weakened to the point that a foreign army is now maneuvering inside Russian territory.
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