re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1262 and 1163 respectively. In total Russia likely lost (killed and wounded) in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months.

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It’s kinda interesting how we know the exact number of Russians killed. But you can’t find an accurate figure of Ukraine deaths almost anywhere.

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Christ, the right makes shitty memes

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WestCoastAg

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538 (the site Nate Silver founded) aggregates all of the polls, and weighs them for accuracy according to methodology combined with facts about each state's demography, past voting trends, and - most importantly - the question the pollsters ask them about how likely they are to vote and their past voting history, and then runs simulations of election day with every variable over and over to give a rough conclusion of who most likely wins. BUT we're talking about statistical probability here... just because Hillary won in 80% of their simulations did not mean that one of the 20% of instances where she lost was impossible. That's important and something most people don't understand.

538: "Who is favored to win the 2024 Presidential Election"

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Well since Ukraine is releasing prisoners to fight, has reduced the draft age, and is jerking people off the street, and sending them untrained straight to front lines.

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Russia is doing the exact same thing

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Russian nationals seeking asylum in Western countries to avoid being drafted into the military has reached a record high, according to the U.K. government, as Moscow and Kyiv dig deep to replenish their ranks more than two years into the Ukrainian war.

Russian citizens searching for refuge in Western countries to escape military service have hit "record levels," the British Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

Deep into the third year of a full-scale war, both Moscow and Kyiv have sustained heavy casualties among their fatigued forces. Western experts say Russian tactics securing gains along the front line in eastern Ukraine have been paid for with sky-high casualty counts.

Earlier this month, Russian independent media outlet Mediazona reported an "unprecedented" growth in cases brought against Russian citizens this year for refusing to serve in the military or for desertion.

In March, Russian courts handed down nearly 700 sentences for "absence without leave," according to the outlet.

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In July 2023, Russia increased the conscription age from 27 to 30, months after Moscow passed a law to introduce digital conscription designed to crack down on draft dodging. This increased "the pool of available military conscripts by 2 million for years to come," the head of the U.S. military's European Command, General Christopher Cavoli, told U.S. lawmakers earlier this month.

"Many of the soldiers who have been tracked down and appear in military court are given suspended sentences, returned to their units and to the frontlines," the U.K. government said Wednesday. "Russian soldiers, including those forcibly recruited during the September 2022 partial mobilisation, are required to remain in military service indefinitely, with little prospect of release.

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He added that Russia's army is now 15 percent larger than when Moscow's forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukraine has struggled with maintaining its fighting force, balancing the deep unpopularity of widening conscription with the much smaller pool of fighters available in the country to battle Russia's far larger military. Kyiv has also contended with tens of thousands of men avoiding the draft.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has called an expanded draft "sensitive," signed a law in early April lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. Zelensky had said in December 2023 that Kyiv needed up to 500,000 extra fighters.

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